PS. die Amis versuchen sich dem Ganzen etwas zu entziehen, stoßen aber immer wieder auf die Grenzen von politischen Auseinandersetzungen und auf Grund der Geographischen Lage ist die Förderung aus dem Ozean eine sehr kostspielige Angelegenheit und mir Risiken durch die Erdplattenverschiebungen verbunden.
-------------------------------------------- Baker Hughes: mehr Ölbohrungen in den USA, weniger in Kanada 2. April 2004 20:43 http://www.finanzen.net/news/news_de...?NewsNr=173097 |
Öl-Preis trotz Opec-Förderkürzung gesunken
05. Apr 14:03 ... Weiterer Preisrückgang erwartet Für die nächsten Wochen erwartet der Analyst einen weiteren leichten Preisrückgang. «Der Öl-Preis wird in das Band zwischen 22 und 28 Dollar rutschen, wie die Opec angestrebt», kommentierte er. Wenn die geopolitische Lage sich nicht verändere, werde der Preis weiter deutlich nachgeben . (nz) http://www.netzeitung.de/wirtschaft/280722.html |
Refinery explosion near Gallup, N.M.; four hospitalized with serious injuries
By Associated Press Friday, April 9, 2004 http://news.bostonherald.com/images/..._gallup_lg.jpg ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - Two fiery explosions rocked a gasoline refinery Thursday, seriously injuring four people, officials said. Smoke billowed from one side of the Giant Industries refinery about 15 miles east of Gallup in western New Mexico as rescue crews converged on the scene. State police Lt. Jimmy Glascock said the explosion occurred in a part of the refinery that produces high-octane fuel, and that the blast caused a second one inside the same area. The fire was quickly contained. Trucker Michael Metcalf was driving nearby when the blasts occurred. ``All of a sudden, I heard a loud sound, which rocked the truck,'' he said. ``I saw flames and black smoke coming out of the refinery, and the flames were shooting out as high as one of the towers.'' Gallup Fire Chief Louie Chavez said the fire triggered the refinery's massive water guns, which helped quell the flames. The injured were taken to hospitals in Gallup and Albuquerque. Two were listed in critical condition and two were satisfactory. About 50 employees were at the refinery when the explosions occurred. The refinery was evacuated as well as a travel center about a quarter mile south, police said. Leland Gould, a vice president of Scottsdale, Ariz.-based Giant, said late Thursday company officials were certain the first explosion was an accident, but could not confirm that until they could assess the damage. The company planned to reopen the refinery on a limited basis Friday. It had been slated to shut down for a routine 30-day maintenance process. Federal regulators and the FBI began routine investigations. Quelle: BostenHerald |
Oil Consumption to Rise Faster Than Expected in 2004, IEA Says
April 10, 2004 The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 industrialized countries, raised its forecast for world oil consumption this year for the sixth straight month as the U.S. economy recovers and demand surges in China. Global use of gasoline, diesel and other fuels will rise by 1.7 million barrels a day to almost 80.3 million barrels daily, the biggest gain since 1997. The increase is 60,000 barrels a day more than the IEA forecast last month. In the second quarter, demand will be 300,000 barrels a day higher than previously expected, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report. ``The driving force is the expanding economy,'' Klaus Rehaag, editor of the report, said by telephone from Paris. ``We have a significant recovery from the recession that's primarily driven by the U.S. At the same point in time, China and India are expanding extremely rapidly.'' The latest increase in the demand forecast comes as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of a third of the world's oil, plans to cut supply this month on concern of a drop in prices. Crude oil in London has risen 15 percent to more than $33 a barrel since OPEC announced the plan Feb. 10. The IEA also cut its estimate of oil supply from countries that don't belong to OPEC. Those nations will boost output by 1.27 million barrels a day this year, 185,000 less than forecast last month, to 50.24 million barrels a day, because of lower expectations for regions including the North Sea. Oil demand normally falls in the second quarter because of warmer weather in the U.S. and Europe. The IEA said consumption will decline by 2 million barrels a day in the period, rather than the 2.3 million barrels expected a month ago, largely because of China. China Fuels Gain ``China's fast-rising energy consumption fuels most of the growth in global oil demand,'' the IEA report said. ``Second- quarter apparent demand may again exceed expectations, despite seasonal maintenance at several large refineries.'' China last year surpassed Japan as the second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., because of rising car sales and increased use of oil to fuel power plants. Chinese demand will rise by 13 percent this year to 6.20 million barrels a day, the IEA said. The expected growth in world demand this year is the largest in absolute terms since 1996-1997, before Asia's fiscal crisis, when demand also rose by 1.7 million barrels a day, Rehaag said. In percentage terms, it matches the 2.1 percent rise in 2003. Fuel inventories are declining as demand accelerates. The IEA, set up as a counterweight to OPEC in 1974, has criticized OPEC's policy of managing supply, saying it is contributing to a ``more fragile'' market. Fuel Inventories Inventories of crude and fuels held in the 30 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell by more than 1 million barrels a day in February to 2.46 billion barrels, the IEA said. The decline left stocks 124 million barrels above those of a year ago. Inventories equaled 52 days of demand, 2.5 days more than 2003's level, the IEA said. OPEC at a meeting in Vienna on March 31 reaffirmed a February decision to lower its output quota by 1 million barrels a day, or 4 percent, as of April 1. Members are still pumping more oil than the quota because prices are rising. The 10 OPEC nations outside of Iraq who agree to quotas produced 25.8 million barrels a day in March, 2.3 million more than their collective target as of April 1, the IEA said. In Iraq, daily supply rose to 2.4 million barrels a day. Some OPEC countries said the IEA's forecast of a decline in second-quarter demand justified the reduction in quotas. The IEA raised its estimate of the need for oil from the group, also known as the call on OPEC. OPEC Call Demand for OPEC oil will drop to 24.3 million barrels a day this quarter, 300,000 barrels a day more than expected last month, from 26.2 million a day in the first quarter. In 2004, the call will average 25.9 million barrels a day, up 100,000 barrels from last month's estimate, the report said. Crude oil prices have been above $22 and $28 a barrel, OPEC's official target range, since December. As long as prices are high, most members aren't likely to comply with the accord to pump less oil, the IEA said. ``Cuts in actual April supply are likely to be modest, confined to perhaps Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Iran,'' the IEA said. ``Cuts from elsewhere within the organization for April look elusive in the absence of any sustained drop in prices.'' Source: Bloomberg Quelle: TehranTimes |
die chancen, dass der ölpreis endlich wieder richtung süden geht, sind wieder gesunken.
die lage im irak eskaliert, die israelische regierung sonnt sich im staatsterrorismus u. bush unterstützt das ganze. dazu die eigentlich beunruhigende meldung, dass die usa ihre bürger auffordern saudiarabien zu verlassen. die sicherheitslage ist dort so brisant, dass es lebensgefährlich ist dort weiterzuarbeiten. was passiert eigentlich, wenn der ölfluss aus saudiarabien mal ins stocken kommt? |
MARKET WATCH
Terrorist threats, refinery outages boost energy prices By OGJ editors HOUSTON, Apr. 16 -- Crude futures prices rebounded on the New York market Thursday after the US Department of State ordered nonessential US personnel out of Saudi Arabia because of the threat of a possible terrorist attack. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer and exporter of crude among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has recently experienced a wave of violence that may be connected to Al-Qaeda. That and continued violence in Iraq have traders worried about possible disruptions of world oil supplies. Those worries were heightened by reports of more problems at US refineries. Premcor Inc. said Thursday it shut down five units at its 225,000 b/d Port Arthur, Tex., refinery. Motiva Enterprises LLC shut down a 17,820 b/d hydrocracking unit at its 250,000 b/d refinery, also in Port Arthur. Earlier, Giant Industries Inc., Scottsdale, Ariz., said it would temporarily shut down all operating units at its 20,800 b/d Ciniza refinery at Gallup, NM, following an Apr. 8 fire at an alkylation unit (OGJ Online, Apr. 13, 2004). Energy prices The May contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes jumped by 85¢ to $37.57/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June contract advanced by 68¢ to $37.10/bbl. On the US spot market, West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Okla., gained 32¢ to $37.05/bbl. Heating oil for May delivery escalated by 2.88¢ to 96.55¢/gal on NYMEX, following government and industry reports of large declines in US inventories of distillates (OGJ Online, Apr. 15, 2004). Gasoline for the same month was up by 2.35¢ to $1.1788/gal. However, the May natural gas contract dipped by 1¢ to $5.73/Mcf Thursday, "as buying on a late rally in crude oil was offset by a soft cash [natural gas spot] market and mostly mild weather [outlook] that should slow heating demand," said analysts Friday at Enerfax Daily. In London, the May contract for North Sea Brent crude lost 33¢ to $33.12/bbl Thursday on the International Petroleum Exchange, as traders reacted to reports of a large build in US crude inventories. That market will be watching US crude stocks in coming weeks for a trend toward inventory increases, said London brokers. If that occurs, crude prices could fall by at least $2/bbl, they said. Meanwhile, gas oil for May delivery increased by $8.75 to $295.75/tonne. The May natural gas contract was up by 2.6¢ to the equivalent of $3.58/Mcf on IPE. The average price for OPEC's basket of seven benchmark crudes gained 44¢ to $32.54/bbl Thursday. |
ein einstieg wird erst nach überschreiten der 34$ fällig, ich bin gespannt, ob der alte höchstpreis von vor dem irakkrieg tatsächlich genommen wird?
http://www.easyoil.de/charts/image001.gif die IEA hat jetzt ihre prognosen für den weltölverbrauch deutlich angehoben. grund ist die riesige nachfrage aus dem asiatischen bereich. auf der anderen seite wurd die angebotsmasse von nicht OPEC lieferanten nach unten abgesenkt. somit dürfte klar sein, dass wir wieder voll von der OPEC abhängig sind (den grünen sei dank :mad: ) ich kann mir daher einen ölpreis mittelfristig mehr bei 40$ vorstellen als in der von der OPEC genannten bandbreite 22 - 28$ |
PS. folgender Artickel passt zu einem Preisband oberhalb des Ansatzes der OPEC.
EIA: China, US dominate future long-term oil demand growth By OGJ editors WASHINGTON, DC, Apr. 19 -- Over the next 2 decades China and the US will fuel much of the new global oil demand, a long-term analysis by the US Energy Information Administration predicts. EIA projected world oil use will increase to 121 million b/d in 2025 from 77 million b/d in 2001, according to the agency's base reference case. "Much of the increase in oil demand is expected to occur in the United States and in developing Asia," EIA said in its International Energy Outlook 2004, released Apr. 14. The US, China, and the rest of developing Asia account for nearly 60% of the projected growth in world oil use, EIA found. Although producers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to capture the bulk of expanding markets, non-OPEC supply should remain very much in the game, EIA reported. "The projected increment in worldwide oil use would require an increment to world productive capacity of more than 44 million b/d over current levels. Although OPEC producers are expected to be the major suppliers of increased production requirements, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain competitive, with major increments in supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa," EIA said. Consumption, pricing patterns Although industrialized nations still consume more of the world's petroleum and related products compared with developing countries, the gap is projected to narrow by 2025. In 2001, developing nations consumed 64% as much oil as industrialized nations; by 2025 they are expected to consume 94% as much as their industrialized counterparts. "Gross domestic product in developing Asia is expected to expand at an average annual rate of 5.1%, compared with 3%/year for the world as a whole. With such strong growth in GDP, demand for energy in developing Asia doubles over the forecast, accounting for 40% of the total projected increment in world energy consumption and 70% of the increment for the developing world alone," EIA said. EIA reported that despite increasing demand, oil prices will fall after 2004 to $25/bbl (in 2002 dollars) and then rise slowly from 2006 onward to 2025, reaching $27/bbl in 2002 dollars (in nominal dollars $51/bbl). By comparison, a recent International Energy Agency forecast expects oil import prices to be slightly lower than what EIA envisions through 2010. EIA acknowledged that its 2004 outlook contains price projections that are generally at the high end of the spectrum of price forecasts across the 2010-25 timeframe. EIA noted that IEA did not publish a price projection of its own for 2015 or 2025 in its World Energy Outlook 2002; however, IEA does state that prices are assumed to rise in a linear fashion after 2010, to $30.03/bbl in 2030 from $21.75/bbl in 2010. EIA noted that a "simple interpolation" of IEA data results in oil price projections of $23.82/bbl in 2015 and $29.96/bbl in 2025, a number slightly higher than what EIA itself foresees. Shorter term, EIA agrees with some private analysts that US and global prices could temporarily soften in 2005 provided gasoline demand follows seasonal trends and inventories rise. Natural gas Meanwhile, EIA said that natural gas remains the world's fastest-growing energy source, although the agency's demand projections are lower than last year taking into account certain geophysical and economic factors. Over 2001-25, global consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by 67% to 151 tcf by 2025. Last year, EIA predicted natural gas demand would climb to 176 tcf. EIA said the change reflects "slightly lower assumptions for worldwide economic growth, a slower projected decline in the world's nuclear power generation, and concerns about the long-term ability of natural gas producers to bring sufficient resources to market at prices competitive with those of other fuels." Worldwide natural gas use is expected to equal coal use (on a btu basis) by 2010, and by 2025 it is expected to exceed coal use by 12%. Quelle: Oil&Gasjournal |
heute ist am weltmarkt eine leichte entspannung bei rohöl zu spüren.
hier mal eine auflistung die auf den preis wirken istreibende (bullische) Einflüsse: Terrorängste in Saudi Arabien (starker Einfluss) Krieg im Irak Eskalation der Gewalt in Palästina Raffinerieprobleme in den USA Weltweite Ölnachfrage steigt stärker als erwartet Fonds setzen weiter auf steigende Preise Charttechnik, langfristiger Aufwärtstrend intakt isdrückende (bärische) Einflüsse: Saudis prognostizieren Rückkehr der Preise unter 28$ (starker Einfluss) Saudis leisten Bush angeblich Wahlhilfe durch Preispolitik (starker Einfluss) Entspannung im US-Benzinmarkt Tendenziell steigende US-Vorräte Irak steigert Ölproduktion Charttechnik, kurzfristige Gegenbewegung läuft |
der ölpreis kommt seit gestern etwas ins rutschen, grund waren die daten zur us-lagerhaltung, die höher als erwartet ausfällt
Zitat:
ein weiterer grund soll von den saudis kommen, die angeblich druck auf den ölpreis machen um bush die wiederwahl zu erleichtern, so jedenfalls Bob Woodward von der Washington Post in seinem neuen buch das gerade erschienen ist. wie nachhaltig das ganze ist, muss sich erst noch zeigen, dier ölpreis kann schnell wieder drehen. übrigens, wir euroländischen werden davon kaum profitieren, der preisrückgang wird vom starken dollar gefressen. |
Oil Reserves Still 34bn Barrels - DPR
This Day (Lagos) April 22, 2004 Posted to the web April 22, 2004 Mike Oduniyi And Gloria Achoyamen Lagos Amid the controversy trailing the recent downgrade of oil and gas reserves held by Shell worldwide, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) disclosed yesterday, that Nigeria's crude oil reserves remained at 34 billion barrels. The DPR, however, said it had begun discussions with Shell Petroleum Development Comp-any (SPDC) on the latter's claim that the recategorisation of its global oil and gas reserves, affected about 1.3 billion barrels of Nigeria's total oil reserve. Speaking to THISDAY in Lagos, the DPR's Deputy Director, Resource Manage-ment, Mr. Benjamin Ogunjana, said Nigeria's current hydrocarbon reserves include 29 billion barrels of crude and five billion barrels of condensate, to take the total to 34 billion barrels, as well as 187 trillion cubic feet of gas. "When we say 34 billion barrels, we mean we are adding oil plus condensate," said Ogun-jana. Shell, Nigeria's biggest oil producer, shocked the global oil industry last January when it announced that it had cut its oil reserves claims by 20 percent or 3.9 billion barrels. It further reduced the claims by 250 million barrels, citing Nigeria as one of its operating areas affected most by the exercise. The announcement jolted the Federal Government, which saw it as a major blow to its campaign for a higher production quota from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Federal Government had banked on the country's rising oil reserves and production levels, to demand for a higher OPEC quota. The Shell reserve cut also coincided with visit to the country at that time by a two-member team from OPEC who came to collate data on Nigeria's oil reserves, production and refining status. The DPR, the nation's oil industry monitors, however, maintained yesterday that the reserves claims Shell had submitted to the United States Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), did not match Nigeria's regulatory standards. According to Ogunjana, the DPR's standard for recording oil reserves is adding the data on proven oil reserves as well as those on possible oil reserves. "What Shell submitted to US SEC is proven (reserves), but what we take from Shell is proven and possible. So when you downgrade one category it can change to another category. "In other words if you downgrade the proven category, the residual will go to possible category (P2)," said the DPR chief. Ogunjana said the DPR was holding talks with Shell on the discrepancies in oil reserve figures. The two parties, he said, first met last Wednesday while another meeting has been scheduled for two weeks time. He said that Nigeria's oil reserves grew by 6 billion barrels in the last seven years, mainly through exploration in the deep offshore in which a total of 32 wells were drilled with 27 of such wells posting successful commercial discoveries. Meanwhile, the Federal Government has enjoined Norwegian investors to show more presence in the Nigerian oil and gas sector, through the establishment of fabrication facilities and other exploration and production infrastructure in the country. Making the call in Lagos yesterday was DPR Director, Mr. Mac Ofurhie, while receiving a Norwegian delegation led by its Petroleum and Energy Minister, Mr. Einer Steensaes. Ofurhie also called on the Norwegian investors to make use of local goods and services, in line with the spirit of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between Nigeria and Norway in 2001. He said that the Institutional Agreements between the DPR and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) was directly derived from the MOU, adding that the cooperation between both institutions has been focusing on the need by Nigeria to sustain a virile regulatory body "by tapping from the experience of Norway, especially as it relates to the deep offshore frontiers." "The initiative is particularly important, now that oil and gas activities in Nigeria are significantly shifting into the relatively new frontiers of deepwater operations," Ofurhie said. According to the DPR boss, apart from tapping from the Norwegian relatively longer experience in the offshore terrain, the collaboration could also tap from the impressive experience of Norway on gas development, as Nigeria strove to attain the objectives of gas flare-out in 2008. He described the on-going offshore floating LNG project being sponsored by Norway's Statoil and other partners at the Nnwa Doro field as a good example of practical cooperation. Quelle: allAfrica.com http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts...70&Ts=17557484 |
23.04.2004
ÖLPREIS Alle gegen die Opec Regierungen in Europa und den USA fürchten um den Aufschwung. Grund: Der unvermindert steigende Ölpreis. Schon kostet Benzin so viel wie vor der Irak-Krise im vergangenen Jahr. Den Schuldigen haben die Verantwortlichen bereits ausgemacht. ... http://www.manager-magazin.de/untern...296652,00.html |
Relaxed G7 Happy with Economy, Oil a Risk
Sat Apr 24, 7:43 PM ET Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo! http://us.news1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com...amdf547561.jpg By Gernot Heller WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Finance chiefs from the world's rich nations agreed on Saturday the global economic outlook had brightened significantly but the threat of further oil price rises was one of the few clouds on the horizon. Government ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven economic powers stopped short of recommending action on energy costs, in part because of differences on how severe an impact oil price rises would have on their economies. "Prospects are favorable and although risks remain, such as energy prices, overall the balance of risks to the outlook has improved," G7 officials said in a communique after their Washington gathering alongside spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) and World Bank (news - web sites). European ministers appeared more anxious than their U.S. counterparts about the threat from oil. "The principal risk is the oil price risk," said French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy. His German counterpart Hans Eichel said he hoped planned output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would not become a reality. Concerns were tempered, however, by a presentation to the meeting by U.S. Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) who, according to French officials, explained that precautionary stock building was partly behind surging energy costs. WARM GLOW Still, discussion of the risks could not disguise an overarching contentment with world growth this year that is forecast to come in at its fastest pace in four years. Not even the noise of thousands of pot-banging, whistle-blowing demonstrators -- angry at the treatment of highly indebted poor countries by multilateral Western institutions -- seemed to darken the G7 mood. The ministers sounded more sanguine about the economy's fortunes than even 2-1/2 months ago, saying the recovery "continued to strengthen and broaden" since they last met in Boca Raton, Florida, in February. The G7 -- the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan -- met as key economies like the United States and even Japan show persuasive signs of gaining momentum that finance ministers expect to be sustained. "Beyond the United States, there is also good news," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told a news conference. "Japan has turned in several good quarters, as has the United Kingdom." Snow said growth in Germany and France must be stepped up. European officials acknowledged this lag. "I explained our analysis of the euro area situation. I confirmed that we had a gradual recovery," European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told a news briefing -- stressing that the ECB had not faced any G7 demands to ease its currently neutral stance on interest rates. TONE IS UPBEAT With the dollar's recovery since the Florida meeting pushing foreign exchange down the agenda, the communique stuck to wording adopted in February that warned against excess currency volatility. The ministers also repeated a call first made in Dubai last September for "more flexibility" in exchange rates -- language seen as referring to China's rigid yuan peg to the dollar. The dollar, under heavy pressure going into the Florida meeting, has partly recovered and this has clearly come as a relief to G7 participants that export to U.S. markets. "It is not clear whether there was a link, like the cause and effect, on foreign exchange since the statement of the G7 in Boca Raton. But all in all, G7 and Italy consider positive the development of foreign exchange since Boca Raton," Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said. TEMPORARY PRICE HIKES? Energy prices were not the only danger sign on official radars this weekend. Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund warned about the potential impact of higher U.S. interest rates, now considered inevitable. Bundesbank Vice President Juergen Stark told reporters: "There are signs that the present situation of globally low interest rates does not necessarily have to persist." Snow conceded the recovery would likely generate some moderate inflation pressures but in general "we look at a fairly benign cost outlook." Generally, though, G7 members looked forward to the end of a stretch of weak global growth and pledged to use the upturn to repair damaged budgets and seek long-term economic reforms. The G7 members agreed to work for "sustained medium-term fiscal consolidation" as growth picks up, an apparent reference to tackling big budget deficits. Snow repeated a U.S. vow to halve its deficit by 2009. A senior U.S. Treasury official told reporters there had been considerable discussion in the meeting about the risk of economic overheating in China and said ministers recognized this as a danger to global expansion. He said a place at the top economic table for China may have to be considered but that it was not a U.S. decision. "China is a critically important player in the global economy -- and yes, I think some role for them participating in the meetings at some point in the future will clearly (be) useful," the official said. (Additional reporting by Ritsuko Ando, Cyrille Cartier, Sumeet Desai, Francesca Landini, Gilbert Le Gras, Brian Love, Anna Willard, Andrea Hopkins, Tim Ahmann, Jonathan Nicholson, Alister Bull in Washington and John Parry in New York) |
Refining shortfall threatens to drive prices up
Reuters London: A lack of refining capacity that has plagued US energy supply since the turn of the decade is now becoming a global phenomenon, threatening to drive oil price strength in years to come, analysts say. This is a dramatic shift from just two years ago when companies were exiting the refining sector due to poor profits. Now, surging US and Chinese fuel demand and the failure to build or significantly upgrade plants in past decades are making the fuel supply picture extremely tight, leaving refineries less able to respond to disruptions like strikes or fires and increasing the risk of fuel price spikes. Soaring product prices are in turn helping drive crude futures. "The oil market is on a knife-edge because global refining capacity is completely overstretched - the key is not crude but refined products," said Sempra Energy consultant Geoff Pyne. "The equation changed after China emerged as a huge buyer." Demand for motor, aviation and heating fuels has skyrocketed in the past two years as China has stepped in to buy vast quantities of oil products, sucking up Asia's spare refining capacity as well as imports from Europe and the Middle East. Consultancy PFC Energy expects global product demand to exceed refining capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by end-2004. In contrast, capacity exceeded demand by 5.7 million bpd just five years ago, it said. "A decade ago there was enough headroom to cope with unexpected supply and demand shocks," Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish wrote. "Today there is no chance of being able to cope with a significant shock without a severe price response." For instance, a March fire at a Texas refinery sent US gasoline futures to an all-time high within minutes. Opec says high US gasoline prices boil down simply to a shortage of refining capacity. "There has not been a refinery built in America in the last 20 years. So if you produce more crude but you can't refine it, it's not going to translate into gasoline," Saudi Arabian foreign affairs adviser Adel Al Jubeir said recently. The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says global refining capacity must rise by 1.3 per cent a year for oil product supply to keep pace with demand growth. It predicts demand at 114 million bpd by 2030, requiring refining capacity of 121 million bpd - 50 per cent up on current levels. But building new plants, or even adding capacity at existing refineries takes years and costs billions of dollars. Lack of investment has actually cut capacity in the United States by two million bpd over the past 20 years to 16 million bpd. The US Department of Energy (DOE) projects that refined products' share in net petroleum imports could double by 2025. "More imports would be needed as the projected growth in demand for refined products exceeds the expansion of domestic refining capacity," the DOE said in a report this year. US gasoline markets rely on imports from Europe but Asian growth has sparked an east-west tug-of-war for barrels, since much Asian refining capacity shut down after the 1998 economic collapse and is yet to be restored. Quelle: Gulf News http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts...70&Ts=17557484 |
Russia has more oil than previously thought
By Arkady Ostrovsky in Moscow and Carola Hoyos in London Published: April 29 2004 21:04 | Last Updated: April 29 2004 21:04 In the spate of bad news that hit the shareholders in Yukos, Russia's embattled oil company, one important announcement by the group last month went almost unnoticed. Following an external audit by DeGoyler & McNaughton, the US auditors, Yukos reported a significant increase in its proved reserves. Under the strict standards set by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US, Yukos's hydrocarbon reserves increased from 11.2bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2002 to 13bn boe at the end of 2003. At the same time TNK-BP said its current reserves of 6.1bn boe could rise to 9bn boe in the short term and could go up to 30bn boe in the longer term. Altogether, analysts' research suggests, Russia's oil reserves could prove to be three times higher than previously thought, making it one of the world's most attractive sources for reserves replacement. According to the BP Statistical Review, Russia has 60bn barrels of proven oil reserves and natural gas reserves equivalent to 280bn barrels of oil. However, auditors and analysts say there is strong upward pressure on these figures. Research by Brunswick UBS, the Moscow arm of the Swiss bank, shows that Russia's proved oil reserves alone could increase from 60bn barrels to 180bn barrels as companies revise their reserves. On current estimates, this would put Russia into second place in the world in terms of oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, which is estimated to have 300bn barrels of oil and oil equivalent. So far Saudi Arabia has only agreed to let international companies explore for natural gas. The state oil company Saudi Aramco is unlikely to stand still in the coming years and western companies are still pining for a crack at its oil, which means it is likely the kingdom's reserves will also grow. However, Russia and the Caspian are becoming increasingly important counterweights to the Middle East. European and US leaders are wooing the Kremlin for strategic supply deals to lessen their dependence on oil from the Middle East. Companies, including ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco of the US and Total of France are lining up to strike deals with their Russian counterparts. "I believe that by the end of the decade Russia will be proven to have 50 per cent more hydrocarbon reserves than what Saudi Arabia has today," said Paul Collison, global emerging markets oil and gas strategist at Brunswick UBS. Lord Browne, chief executive of BP, agreed that reserves would increase. "It does seem likely that there will be more reserves. I'm not sure if anyone really knows what the ultimate recovery will be of new technology put to use in old fields." Analysts say strict rules applied by the US Securities and Exchange Commission mean Russian companies book fewer barrels than they have potential for. Martin Wierwiorowski, a general director for Russia and the former Soviet Union at DeGoyler & McNaughton, said: "We find that both under SEC and SPE [Society of Petroleum Engineers] rules Russian companies are able to book a relatively low percentage of their reserves when compared to their western counterparts." However, Mr Collison argued that not only were Russian companies starting to manage their reserves better, but they were also doing more drilling and exploratory work which would allow them legitimately to book higher reserves with the SEC. "The trend in Russia is opposite to the one in the western world where a number of companies have revised their reserves downwards," he said. Mr Wierwiorowski said at the end of 2002 Russian companies on average had booked about 18 per cent of oil in place under the strict SEC rules and 24 per cent un der SPE rules. This is about half the level booked by companies in western oil fields. However, anecdotal evidence from Russian companies say many of them are aiming to recover between 30 to 40 per cent of oil in place in the short term. The Russian companies also have to cope with SEC rules preventing them from booking reserves which are beyond the area that can be captured by a producing oil well. Given the huge size of Russian oilfields, this means that companies are restricted from booking oil between wells that are widely spaced. The SEC rules also do not allow Russian companies to book reserves which are expected to be produced beyond the expiry date of their current licences. Most Russian companies incorporated in the middle of 1990s were given 25-year licences, which will expire in the next 14-16 years. When the Russian government renews these licences, Russian companies will be able to book more barrels. But Adam Landes, an oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-based brokerage, says that even now by changing the wording of Russian laws to satisfy the SEC that these licences will be renewed, it will allow Russian companies immediately to book up to 70 per cent more reserves than they do currently. However, Russian companies will ultimately need better technology and oil well management and more drilling and exploratory work to utilise their potential. |
der rohölpreis ist weiter in einem robusten aufwärtstrend, ich bin gespannt wo dass mal zum bruch kommt? :rolleyes:
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@simplify meine Spekulation bleibt weiterhin bestehen, bei ca. 42$ Brent Crude Oil für Sept/Okt. 2004. :eek:
http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts...70&Ts=17557484 2004 fuel economy makes no headway over the previous year Associated Press May 3, 2004 WASHINGTON -- The average fuel economy of 2004 automobiles is 20.8 miles per gallon, unchanged from the previous year's models, the Environmental Protection Agency said last week. The fleet-wide average for U.S. light-duty vehicles has remained fairly consistent since 1997, ranging between 20.6 mpg and 20.9 mpg, the EPA said in its annual report on fuel economy trends. Those trends could gain increasing importance for consumers if gasoline prices remain high. Prices are expected to go up by another nickel a gallon nationwide by the end of June before returning to current levels before fall, the Energy Department has estimated. It expects pump prices to average about $1.81 a gallon for the three months ending in June. Fleet-average fuel economy peaked at 22.1 mpg in 1987, the EPA said. EPA officials also said fuel economy has declined in the last seven years because of the increasing popularity of less fuel- efficient light trucks, particularly sport-utilities. But they said hybrid-electric vehicles, clean diesel technology and variable displacement engines hold promise for raising the average in the near future. Light trucks are expected to account for 48 percent of sales in 2004, compared with sales of cars at 52 percent, EPA said. |
ROHÖL
Experten befürchten Preisexplosion Der Rohölpreis ist erneut kräftig gestiegen. Die Angst vor neuen Terroranschlägen im Nahen Osten und niedrige Lagerbestände schrauben den Preis immer höher. 40 Dollar je Barrel sind in Kürze möglich. Konjunktur und Finanzmärkte werden darunter leiden, sagen Experten. ... http://www.manager-magazin.de/finanz.../a-298518.html |
die sorgen sind durchaus berechtigt. jetzt kann man wieder lesen, das arafat sich hat verbarikadieren lassen, da er ein erneutes eingreifen der israelis auf sein hauptquartier befürchtet.
ich denke ein mord an arafat durch die israelis wird das fass im nahen osten zum überlaufen bringen. wenn ich terroristenführer wäre, dann würde ich alles daran setzen, die lage in saudi arabien zu destabilisieren. ein ausfall der saudis als öllieferant würde die kapitalistische welt in die knie zwingen. |
Ja aber öffnen dann nicht die Nicht-OPEC Staaten, wie Rußland, Norwegen ... ihre Ölhähne?
Aber ich vermute mal man stößt da schnell an die Kapazitätsgrenzen! |
06.05.2004 16:35
Keine Angst vor hohen Ölpreisen :top: Der Ölpreis steigt immer höher und ist wieder ein Thema. Dem zarten Pflänzchen Konjunkturaufschwung droht Gefahr, auch die Börse leidet. Dabei kann man sich als Anleger gegen steigende Ölpreise absichern oder sogar Kursgewinne einfahren. Jeder ist irgendwie vom hohen Ölpreis betroffen - nicht nur die Autofahrer, sondern auch die einzelnen Haushalte. Denn durch den anziehenden Ölpreis wird es teurer, Waren durch die Gegend zu transportieren. Das wird sich früher oder später auch bei den Verbraucherpreisen bemerkbar machen. Bei Strom- und Heizkosten dürfte der Ölpreis spätestens im kommenden Jahr seine Spuren hinterlassen. Der Preis für das auch in Deutschland immer wichtigere Erdgas ist nämlich an den Ölpreis gekoppelt. Auch an den Aktienmärkten dürften hohe oder noch höhere Ölpreis nicht spurlos vorbeigehen. Denn das Wirtschaftswachstum dürfte leiden und damit auch die Gewinnaussichten vieler Unternehmen. Zertifikate gegen Ölpreis-Risiko Es gibt somit gute Gründe, sich gegen das Ölpreis-Risiko abzusichern. Das können Anleger zum Beispiel mit Zertifikaten auf den Ölpreis. Marktführer ist hier die niederländische Großbank ABN-Amro. Sie bietet beispielsweise ein Indexzertifikat auf die Nordsee-Ölsorte Brent an. Ein Zertifikat bildet den Wert von einem Barrel Rohöl (159 Liter) ab. Da der Ölpreis in Dollar notiert, besteht natürlich ein gewisses Währungsrisiko, sollte der Dollar weiter nachgeben. Eine spekulativere Möglichkeit bieten Hebel-Zertifikate. Im Gegensatz zu dem Index-Zertifikat, bei dem der volle Kapitaleinsatz auf den Ölpreis geleistet werden muss, wird bei einem Hebel-Zertifikat nur ein Teil des Kapitals benötigt. Dadurch ergibt sich ein „Hebeleffekt“. Ein Beispiel: Der Hebel liegt bei drei und der Ölpreis steigt um ein Prozent. Dann gewinnt ein entsprechendes Hebel-Zertifikat drei Prozent. Sowohl die ABN als auch die DZ Bank bieten entsprechende Wertpapiere an. Niemand kann einen schnell durch die Decke schießenden Ölpreis ernsthaft wollen. Zu viel hängt am Preis des schwarzen Goldes. Doch wer sich absichert, kann der Entwicklung gelassener entgegen sehen. ME |
Entspannung im Handel mit Ölkontrakten nicht in Sicht
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/...t-1156847.html |
MAY 7, 2004 - 05:00 ET
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces Shareholder Approval for Two-For-One Share Split CALGARY, ALBERTA--(CCNMatthews - May 7, 2004) - Shareholders of Canadian Natural Resources Limited ("Canadian Natural") approved by a large majority, a subdivision or "Share Split" of its issued and outstanding Common Shares on a two-for-one basis at the Corporation's Annual and Special Meeting held May 6, 2004. It is believed the Share Split will encourage greater market liquidity for the Company's Common Shares and provide opportunities for ownership of the Company's Common Shares by a wider group of investors. The subdivision will be effected by issuing on or about May 28, 2004 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on Friday May 21, 2004 a certificate for one additional Common Share for every one Common Share held as of such record date. Canadian Natural is a senior oil and natural gas production company, with continuing operations in its core areas located in Western Canada, the U.K. portion of the North Sea and Offshore West Africa. Certain information regarding the Company contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. Such statements are subject to known or unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or implied in the forward-looking statements. Quelle: CCN Mathews |
07.05.2004 14:47
Ölwerte sind günstiger als Goldaktien von Mark Ehren Investments im Rohstoffbereich sind zur Zeit groß in Mode. Dabei denken viele Anleger besonders an Gold- und Edelmetallaktien. Ölaktien werden dabei häufig vergessen, obwohl teilweise Schnäppchen-Preise locken. ... http://boerse.ard.de/content.jsp?key=dokument_55426 PS. Mich wundert es, dass man zu Russland und China keine Stellung bezieht. :confused: |
ÖLPREIS
"Nachfrage hat die Märkte überrascht" Auf den Energiemärkten wird das Öl teurer und teurer: In New York kostete ein Barrel erstmals seit 1990 mehr als 40 Dollar. Marktexperten gehen davon aus, dass die Preise auf absehbare Zeit nicht sinken werden. Nun steht die Öko-Steuer wieder in der Kritik. ... http://www.manager-magazin.de/finanz.../a-299004.html |
European gas markets 85% open; long-term contracts persist
By OGJ editors HOUSTON, May 7 -- Long-term supply contracts will play a more important role in the new European Union free gas market than originally planned, contends London-based analysts Prospex Research Ltd. in a recently released report. It has long been held that such contracts would stifle competition in the EU's free gas market—scheduled for full opening to nonhousehold gas consumers by July of this year and for complete market opening by July 2007. However, gas supply security has become a growing concern because of Europe's increasing reliance on imported gas. Half of Europe's consumption will be imported by 2020, Prospex said, and long-term contracts are now being viewed as "an essential part of the European gas market." The original 1998 directive to end gas monopolies—many of which were state-owned—and to create a single open market assuring third-party access (TPA) throughout Europe within 10 years was superseded in 2003 by a directive that accelerated the timetable. It also defined more-specific requirements for independent market regulation, TPA, and the separation of infrastructure operations from gas trading dealings. Public service and environmental protection also were given importance almost equal to competition in the later directive. Market openings By yearend 2003, the gas markets of Austria, Italy, Spain, the UK, and the Flanders area of Belgium were already 100% open. "On paper the German market is also fully open," Prospex reported, "but the complexity of the German TPA arrangements and the dominant positions of large incumbent players have left this huge and crucially located gas market largely closed to new entrants." Other national markets are partially open in line with the directive timetable, Prospex said, although the European Court of Justice had to force France to implement necessary legislative changes in 2003. "Overall the western European gas market is 85% open," the analyst reported. The original15 EU countries consist of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, the UK, and Sweden. Another 10 countries became members May 1: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Market fundamentals Gas demand in Europe has grown about 4%/year since 1990, driven by increased use of gas-fired power generation, especially in combined-cycle gas turbine plants, and by industrial energy consumers' switching from more-expensive and environmentally less-friendly fuels such as oil and coal. In 2002, Europe's gas demand represented 24% of world gas consumption, Prospex said, and the region produced enough gas to meet 67% of its requirements. However, all European gas production, except that of Norway, has passed its peak and is in decline, the analyst added. "Overall, Europe has sufficient reserves for around 16 years of production at 2002 rates," the analysts contend, after which imports are expected to supply at least half of Europe's consumption. More than half of the gas Europe now uses crosses at least one national border via interconnections with the 187,000 km of gas transmission pipelines that traverse Europe, most operated on a national basis within each country. The system links to production in the North Sea and to delivery pipelines from Algeria and Russia, which provide most of the EU's gas imports. Underground storage facilities, used to meet seasonal demand fluctuations, have a capacity to hold 14% of Europe's total annual consumption, the analysts said. LNG volumes, which accounted for 10% of imports in 2002, are expected to double or quadruple when currently planned receiving terminals, regasification facilities, and pipelines are in place. Long-term supply contracts predominate, but some spot cargo trading occurs, "and independent traders are starting to obtain the necessary access to LNG terminals to allow opportunistic trading," said Prospex. Players Although international oil majors dominate European gas production—with ExxonMobil Corp. and Royal Dutch/Shell Group playing the leading role—national or regional gas supply companies continue to dominate the supply market, said Prospex. These companies, many state-owned, are in various phases of privatizing their companies and unbundling vertically integrated monopolies, especially separating transportation and operations divisions from gas trading companies. But the process is far from complete. In Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Sweden, for example, as well as in many central and eastern European countries, former monopolies remain the leading players, controlling as much as 80-100% of the wholesale gas supply in their markets. At the same time, many former monopolies are expanding, forging new partnerships, and acquiring assets in new markets in western and central Europe to retain a dominant market position. "Such moves do not help to create a level playing field for new entrants within the home market," Prospex noted. Outlook In addition to the forging a single pan-European gas market by yearend, several other important changes are anticipated for this year, Prospex reported. "The introduction of an independent regulator for the German gas market and a change in German TPS arrangements may help to reduce some significant barriers to trading within this important market," the report emphasized. "Throughout Europe, in fact, TPA arrangements are being improved and simplified, with moves towards entry-exit (rather than distance-related) pricing of transmission and improvements in the flexibility and transparency of capacity allocation." At the same time, infrastructure operations unbundling will be completed, all of which should encourage cross-border trading and smooth the way for new market entrants. |
Hallo Goldfisch,
paß auf mit Deinen Ölwerten. Ich habe mich in letzter Zeit nicht mit den Fundamentals dazu befaßt, sondern habe mir eben nur einmal die EW-Charttechnik von Öl angeschaut. Demnach wird der Ölpreis jetzt mittelfristig FALLEN! Nach Elliott ist das ziemlich eindeutig abzulesen, siehe hier im Forum unter "Ölcharts"! Also Warnung betr. Ölwerte. Hat mich selber etwas überrascht, da grundsätzlich Rohstoffwerte in einem vieljährigen Aufwärtstrend sein sollten. Aber mittelfristig geht's offenbar nun abwärts mit dem Ölpreis. |
Tja, heute liegt der Ölpreis aber schon über 40$ pro Barrel :(
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ja stimmt, der preis für crude oil ist über 40$ heute gestiegen
http://charts.futuresource.com/cis/e...ONE&random=975 der trend nach oben ist beim rohöl weiter fest und die geopolitische lage unterstützt das ganze. das öffentliche nachdenken der OPEC über eine ausweitung der ölförderung hat nur kurz wirkung gezeigt. wir stehen nur noch kurz unter dem langzeithoch, ich bin gespannt ob wir da abprallen? |
Hi,
ist mir klar, dass viele einen noch höheren Ölpreis "sehen". Aber nach EW sehe ich nur 3 Möglichkeiten. Zwei habe ich im Thread "Ölcharts" dargestellt. Die 3. Variante wäre extrem bullisch. demnach wären wir in der Unterwelle 3 der 3 eines Aufwärtsimpulses, auf dem Weg zu ganz unerhörten Ölpreisen im mittelfristigen Zeitfenster. Das erschien mir so abenteuerlich, dass ich diese Variante gar nicht aufführte. Aus dem Langfristchart im Thread "Ölcharts" wird jedenfalls deutlich, dass der Bereich von 40$ und etwas darüber einen "Meilensteinlevel" darstellt. Nur wenn es eine wirklich starke Versorgungsproblematik gibt dürfte es darüber gehen, ansonsten erwarte ich eher, dass der Markt eine der verfügbaren Entspannungsoptionen wählt, die ich darstellte. Eine davon übrigens impliziert - allerdings später - auch einen Bruch der 40$-Bereichs. Ob derzeit da draußen so viel Angst herrscht, dass habe ich nicht verfolgt. Von der Währungsseite - mittelfristige Dollaraufwertung - sollte das Öl in Dollar bewertet billiger werden, so wie ich es oben ja schon rein charttechnisch als wahrscheinlich ableitete. Schaun' mer mal.... |
wenn man nur auf den chart schaut, dann gebe ich benjamin recht, da könnte es bald zu einer deutlichen beruhigung am ölmarkt kommen.
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/cl.pdf er ölpreis ist immer nach erreichen seines höchststandes von 40$ deutlich zurückgekommen. auf der anderen seite muss man aber die gründe der früheren anstiege auch berücksichtigen. der anstieg anfang der 90er war kurz vor dem krieg mit dem irak, nach dem absehbar wurde, dass der krieg schnell gewonnen wird, ist der ölpreis gesunken. das letzte hoch war wieder vor dem irakkrieg und sank auch schnell weil absehbar war, dass der krieg gewonnen wird. jetzt ist der ölpreis aus verschiedenen gründen auf dem höchststand. der mix geht. von der ungelösten nahost frage (israelis - palästinenser) den anhaltenden kämpfen im irak (jetzt mit köpfen eines amerikaners) der terrorangst, es könnten ölleitungen getroffen werden o. gar das königshaus in saudi arabien gestürzt werden. problemen in den usa, es fehlt an schwefelarmen kraftstoff und mangelnder raffinerie kapazität. dann der enorm gestiegene bedarf in china u. indien, ablesbar auch an der autoproduktion. wo da ein schnelles ende kommen soll???? das fragen sich auch die hedgefonds und treiben so den ölpreis munter weiter. sollte sich jedoch eine lösung mal abzeichnen, wird der absturz des ölpreises gewaltig sein. |
Eigentlich könnten ja die Nicht-OPEC-Mitglieder den Ölhahn aufdrehen .... :)
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wenn es so einfach wäre?
wenn z.B. die russen mehr fördern, dann brauchen sie mehr pipelines, mehr öltanker, mehr bohrgerät, mehr raffinerien usw. in den usa haben wir ja das problem, dass es an raffinerien mangelt, man hat halt jahrelang nicht richtig investiert. dazu ist wie schon geschrieben, der preis durch die hedgefonds getrieben, da will der ölhandel natürlich nicht teuer einlagern, was wieder dem argument nahrung verleiht, dass es zu geringe lagerbestände in den industrieländern gibt. hier greift eins ins andere, leider. |
der ölpreis setzt seinen anstieg ungehindert fort. eigentlich wäre eine charttechnische gegenbewegung lange überfällig, aber die geopolitische lage wird durch die folterungen durch die amerikaner und engländer immer brisanter.
die islamische welt verfügt über die mehrheit der ölreserven auf der erde. die folterungen haben da wohlmöglich ein streichholz an ein pulverfass gehalten. dazu kommt, dass die chinesen jetzt zum zweitgrössten ölverbraucher aufgestiegen sind und das in kürzester zeit. diese entwicklung zeigt auch, dass im bereich der industrie eine vergeudung von energie grössten ausmasses stattfindet. die hedgefonds sind weiter dabei longpositionen aufzubauen, so dass sich eine entspannung am ölmarkt nicht abzeichnet. |
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interessant ist in diesem zusammenhang auch die mail eines grossen deutschen heizöllieferanten an seine kunden
Zitat:
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Ölpreis auf Rekordniveau - in den USA kostet der Liter 0,44 Euro [14.05.2004 - 18:32]
http://www.wwwboersenreport.de/images/oelscheich.gif Die Unsicherheit über die Lage im Nahen Osten, geringe Fördermengen und die hohe US-Nachfrage treiben die Ölpreise auf immer neue Rekordhöhen. An den Rohstoffmärkten in New York durchbrach der Preis pro Barrel die 41-Dollar-Marke und übertraf dabei die Höchststände vom 10. Oktober 1990 bei 41,25 Dollar. Der Preis für ein Barrel (159 l) schraubte sich bis auf 41,50 Dollar nach oben. Mittlerweile kam er auf 41,25 Dollar je Barrel zurück. Dennoch paradiesische Zustände an US-amerikanischen Tankstellen. Die Hauptverantwortlichen für den hohen Benzinpreis - hoher Verbrauch, Irakkrieg etc. - zahlen für einen Liter Normalbenzin "nur" 44 Euro-Cents, wir annähernd das Dreifache. Fast könnte man meinen, sie haben den Atlantik absichtlich dazwischengeschoben, sonst würden die Bundesbürger zukünftig nicht mehr nach Polen, sondern ins "Gelobte Land" USA zum Tanken fahren. Erst am Donnerstag hatten die Ölkonzerne in Deutschland die Benzinpreise kräftig erhöht: Unter Führung der Shell stiegen die Benzinpreise um vier Cent pro Liter, wie der Fachdienst EID mitteilte. Das Niveau der Benzinpreise in Deutschland hat damit offenbar ein neues Rekordniveau über 1,20 Euro pro Liter Superbenzin erreicht. In den USA kostet die Gallone (3,785 Liter) Normalbenzin laut Info des Automobilclubs AAA durchschnittlich 1,953 Dollar. Damit kostet ein Liter Normal-Benzin an einer US-Tankstelle durchschnittlich 0,44 Euro. Dennoch ist das Gestöhne der US-Autofahrer mindestens so laut wie das der Deutschen. Das wichtigste Mitgliedsland der Opec, Saudi-Arabien, hatte am Dienstag eine Fördererhöhung vorgeschlagen, was zu einem deutlichen Preisrückgang geführt hatte, der aber nicht lange vorhielt. Am Mittwoch teilte die Opec mit, dass die Mitgliedsländer bereits zwei Mio. Barrel mehr förderten als ihre selbst auferlegte Förderrate von 23,5 Mio. Barrel am Tag. Morgan Stanley erhöhte - mittlerweile auch sehr pessimistisch - seine 2004-Schätzung für den Ölpreis von 28 auf 33 Dollar je Barrel. Die Experten bezweifeln, dass die OPEC die Fördermenge erhöht, um damit den Preis zu senken. Autor: Joe |
Buy-out bei Öl!!!!!
Achtung, die Ölblase platzt!!
Deutliche Signale für ein "buy-out"!!!!! :flop: :flop: :flop: |
beim öl wäre ein rücksetzer tatsächlich mehr als überfällig.
wir befinden uns jetzt auf dem höchsten stand seit 130 jahren, also seit es einen ölmarkt in new york gibt. :( man sollte so einen rücksetzer aber noch nicht als trendbruch bewerten, das umfeld ist derzeit eine katastrophe. die OPEC hat den preis nicht mehr im griff, da hilft jetzt auch nicht, dass man eventuell die förderung anheben will. etwas hoffnung macht das ende des booms in china und die wohl künftig rückwärts gewandte wirtschaftspolitik in indien. vielleicht schaffen die amis ja unter diesem zwang auch ihre spritfressenden automonster ab, das würde auch helfen. |
Ölkrise....
Ölkrise
Der Ölpreis bleibt weiterhin im Blickfeld der 40 Dollar-Marke. Für China sind das vielleicht richtige Preise, für unsere westlichen Industrieländer hingegen nicht. Erinnerungen an die großen Ölkrisen der 70er Jahre werden wach. Doch nun raten Sie einmal, wo damals der Ölpreis stand. Auch bei 40 Dollar – oder noch viel höher? Nein, ganz im Gegenteil: 1973 stand der Ölpreis bei – 3 (!) Dollar pro Barrel und vervierfachte sich von dort aus bis auf 12 Dollar im Jahr 1974. Lächerliche Werte aus heutiger Sicht. Die Erklärung liegt in der Inflationsrate. Die Werte von 3 Dollar und 12 Dollar sind Nominalwerte. In der Realrechnung hingegen, also in der rückwärtigen Bereinigung um die Inflationseffekte, lag der damalige Ölpreis weit über dem heutigen. Genauso wie die heutigen Löhne die Löhne aus den 70er Jahren wie ein Trinkgeld ausschauen lassen. Während es durchaus möglich ist, dass der Ölpreis jetzt noch weiter anzieht, ist es gewiss, dass er sich auf Dauer nicht weit über 40 Dollar festsetzen wird. Denn bei 40 Dollar wird der Abbau der Ölschiefer-Vorkommen in Nordamerika profitabel, was die Welt-Ölreserven sofort um etwa 70 Prozent erhöhen würde. Momentan sieht es also durchaus kritisch aus. Doch an der Börse wird man nur dann reich, wenn man einen langen Atem hat. Schwierig ist nur, dass man niemals weiß, wann man ein- und ausatmen und wann die Luft anhalten muss. von Bernd Niquet. [ Montag, 17.05.2004, 15:55 ] |
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