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Global Development Finance 2009: Commodity markets

The slowing of global growth, which preceded the financial crisis by several months, prompted commodity prices to start falling in mid-2008.
The eruption of the full-blown crisis and the rapid drop-off in economic activity since September of that year accelerated this process markedly.

Demand for most commodities (notably, in high-income industries and in China) slowed or declined, particularly for oil and metals.

By December 2008, crude oil prices had dropped to $41 a barrel, down more than 70 percent from the July peaks, while non-energy prices, including food, had declined by nearly 40 percent.
Since December, prices have firmed, with crude oil prices up to $58 on average in May 2009, and prices for internationally traded foods and metals were up 6 and 7 percent, respectively.3

The sharp decline in crude oil prices, from more than $140 a barrel in July 2008, reflected weaker global demand and the relaxation of some refining capacity constraints4 that had contributed to high prices in the first half of the year.5

World crude oil demand fell 3.6 percent between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, with demand in OECD countries off 5.1 percent.

The fall in demand reflected both the declines in industrial activity and the effects of high oil prices during the first half of 2008.
Although non-OECD demand continued to grow during the first three quarters of 2008 (led by strong gains in the Middle East), it too turned negative in the first quarter of 2009 as Middle Eastern demand growth slowed substantially and Chinese demand declined.

For 2009 as a whole, world oil demand is projected to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day (mb/d), with continuing large falloffs in high-income countries and slight declines across most developing regions.
Production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is being curtailed sharply, while non-OPEC oil deliveries are expected to fall by 0.3 mb/d this year.

This, coupled with expectations of a slow recovery in global growth, has contributed to the recent recovery in oil prices.
Prices are expected to continue rising at a moderate pace over the medium term, with the weak pace of global GDP and ample spare capacity precluding a rapid rise in oil prices.

How successful OPEC is in cutting supply will affect outturns in the short term. Should OPEC members reduce oil production by enough, prices could fall below the projected average of $55.5 a barrel for 2009.6

The financial crisis and the steep falloff in economic activity have disrupted the development of long-term supply in the hydrocarbon sector.
A number of smaller producers have been forced to scale back operations due to financial constraints and several high-cost investment projects in the sector have been cancelled or deferred, notably oil sands projects in Canada.

However, planned investment among the major companies has remained relatively high and their major projects, e.g., deepwater offshore, are expected to be completed.

Moreover, the weaker investment demand has relaxed some of the acute constraints in the supply of investment inputs (oil rigs, materials, specialized equipment, and skilled labor), and, as a result, exploration and exploitation costs have declined.
Most of the obstacles to future supply are “above-theground” constraints (as opposed to a shortage of oil in the ground)—such as access to reserves (three-fourths of the world’s reserves are controlled by national oil companies), political problems, and the reluctance of national oil companies to engage international companies to facilitate the extraction and discovery of reserves.

Nevertheless, all major oil-exporting countries are investing in new capacity, and Saudi Arabia has repeated its intention to maintain surplus capacity.

Medium-term prospects are difficult to judge, and while the consensus in the industry is for a further spike in oil prices, this appears unlikely.
High prices have stimulated development of alternative technologies, and pushed governments and consumers to use energy more efficiently.

Consumers’ shift away from fuel-inefficient cars, the mainstreaming of hybrid automobile technologies, the recent passage of laws tightening U.S. energy efficiency standards, increasing environmental pressures—coupled with the modest pace of the expected recovery—all argue against OPEC’s more than 6 mb/d in spare capacity being reabsorbed very quickly.

http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/Charts_...2701880c90.png
The sharp fall in commodity prices has now stabilized
Index, January 2000 = 100

http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/Charts_...a3f44c6dae.png
Oil demand has fallen sharply along with global growth
Change in world oil consumption growth since same quarter a year before (mb/d)

Oil markets
Global Development Finance 2009: Commodity markets
http://web.worldbank.org/external/de...2&piPK=2470429

Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet): http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXT...476883,00.html

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3 Over the same period, the dollar appreciated against most currencies, rising by 4.4 percent in real effective terms.
4 Refineries struggled to produce sufficient distillates to meet newly mandated ultralow sulfur diesel fuel standards in high-income countries. Lack of refining capacity to produce this distillate from lower-grade oils increased demand (and the price) for light, sweet crude oil by between 3.2 and 5.1 million barrels a day at the peak.
5 World Bank (2009) provides more in-depth discussion of the causes of the run-up in commodity prices during 2008 and their long-term prospects.
6 Prices during the first five months of 2009 averaged $46, thus even if prices continue to rise from their end-of May level of $58, the average price of oil during the whole year will be lower than its current level.