[cade]

hier auch noch eine gute einschätzung der aktuellen lage:

DGAP-News: Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Merchant & Investment Banking /
Schlagwort(e): Sonstiges Silvia Quandt & Cie. AG, Brokerage & Investment Banking: In-between the lines - Bernhard Eschweiler

05.11.2012 / 12:58

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- Markets waiting for outcome of US election and next Euro area moves

- Inflation concerns are rising in Germany

- However, monetary and real economic inflation flags are missing so far

Financial markets have been moving sideways since the rally reached a peak in September. The initial euphoria over central bank actions, especially the OMT announcement by the ECB and the launch of QE3 by the Fed, is gone, but market sentiment remains positive despite disappointing earnings releases and mixed economic news (economic figures in Europe were mostly weaker, but the rest of the world was doing a tick better, notably the US and China). In our judgment, markets are poised to move higher, but two obstacles have to be overcome.

- The most immediate issue is the US election. Our guess is as good as
those of the bookmakers and polls, but we fear that the fiscal policy
implications are underestimated. We share the consensus view that
eventually a compromise will be reached to avoid the fiscal cliff and
raise the debt ceiling. However, gridlock may well prevent a fiscal
compromise before yearend, which would imply a temporary (albeit
reversible) step over the fiscal cliff.

- The other issue is the next steps in coping with the Euro-debt crisis.
In the forefront is Greece. Even Germany is starting to accept that
more time will be needed. However, the German government remains set
to avoid any vote on Greece in parliament. Thus, most likely is a
fudge, which allows the disbursement of the next payment later this
month and postpones the final decision on additional support for
Greece. Spain has done its funding for this year, but riding just on
the ECB OMT announcement is unlikely to be enough for next year. Both
Spain and Germany (where the parliament would have to vote on a
precautionary credit line for Spain) are playing for time. In our
judgment, bad news from Spain and market pressure will force both
sides' hands between yearend and the first quarter of next year.

Thus and as we wrote before, there is significant risk that markets will experience a temporary setback due to these two issues. However, we are also confident that these issues will be overcome and that a more positive economic and financial picture will emerge in the course of next year.