[Benjamin]

The Potential 2017 Government Shutdown Sparks Doubt for Trump Agenda
By Ashley Moore, Associate Editor, Money Morning • April 7, 2017
https://moneymorning.com/2017/04/07/...-trump-agenda/

As of right now, it doesn't look like Congress will vote on the debt ceiling before the summer recess on July 31. So it will likely be negotiated in conjunction with the budget that is due Sept. 30.

Raising both the debt ceiling and budget could mean trouble for Trump's economic stimulus plan. Fiscal conservatives want cuts in government spending with a debt ceiling hike. Those spending cuts would leave little room in the budget for infrastructure spending.

Trump's proposed tax reform could also be in jeopardy in order to prevent a larger deficit and additional borrowing.

That will keep the lights on until about October or November. But after that, the government will run out of money.

The more likely way conditions will be attached to raising the debt ceiling is incorporating proposed budget cuts into the same bill as raising the debt limit, affecting only the current debt ceiling legislation.

Either way, these spending cuts will likely put a limit on how much infrastructure spending Trump will be able to get passed in order to stimulate economic growth.

While a default is not likely, a government shutdown Oct. 1 is highly likely to happen…

By law, the U.S. government must have a budget at the start of each fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. If a budget is not approved by Congress by that time, the government shuts down.

Even if a full budget is not agreed upon by Oct. 1, a temporary spending measure can be passed. But this would just delay the tension instead of solving the budget fights.

Those fights are likely to stall Trump's agenda as well. Topics like the border wall, Planned Parenthood, and entitlement programs are facing an ideological split down party lines.

Couple the ideological splits with party in-fighting, and getting a majority vote on a budget will be difficult.

This divide along party lines is likely to cause a 2017 government shutdown.