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Benjamin · 16-10-2004, 08:09

``High oil prices can be sustained,'' said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``If you look at current prices they are still well below what we saw in the 70s and 80s when adjusted for inflation. We have record global growth this year and that's fueling demand and the rise in prices.''

Crude oil for November delivery was up 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $54.90 a barrel at 2:30 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached $55, the highest since futures began trading in 1983.
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Notes zur Greenspan-Rede über Öl, zusammengestückelt aus mehreren Artikeln:

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he isn't worried by the rise of crude-oil prices to a record $55 a barrel, adding that the U.S. economy is much less vulnerable to such surges now than it was in the 1970s.

"The impact of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s," Greenspan said at a luncheon sponsored by the National Italian American Federation. Greenspan said that over the long haul, technological advances and market forces would probably ensure the world had an adequate supply of oil as it makes an eventual transition to other energy sources.

"Part of the recent rise in spot prices is expected to wash out over the longer run," Mr. Greenspan said, citing the fact that prices of crude for delivery in 2010 remain well below spot prices. Technological innovation, moreover, will ensure "the needed supplies, at least for a very long time," he said. "The uptrend in world proved reserves is likely to continue at least for a while," Mr. Greenspan said.

The remarks suggested the U.S. central bank will persist with its campaign of higher interest rates despite sharply higher oil prices. Crude-oil prices have climbed about 40% in the last 12 months, but the economy has continued to expand at a pace Fed policy makers consider acceptable. The Fed, accordingly, has raised its key interest rate three times since June and is expected to raise it again next month.

Mr. Greenspan attributed the increase in long-term oil prices mostly to " rising geopolitical concerns about insecure reserves and the lack of investment to exploit them."...
"Heightened worries about the reliability of supply have led to a pronounced increase in the demand to hold larger precautionary inventories of oil," he said. Moreover, "demand from investors who have accumulated large net long positions in distant oil futures and options is expanding again.""Such speculative positions are claims against future oil holdings of oil firms," he said. "Currently, strained capacity has limited the ability of oil producers to quickly satisfy this markedly increased demand for inventory."

Mr. Greenspan also said that if oil prices stay high, they will induce a change in consumption patterns that will make the high prices unsustainable.

"Much of the capital infrastructure of the United States and elsewhere was built in anticipation of lower real oil prices than currently prevail or are anticipated for the future," he said. "Unless oil prices fall back, some of the more oil-intensive parts of our capital stock would lose part of their competitive edge and, presumably, be displaced, as was the case following the price increases of the late 1970s."

Mr. Greenspan said predictions of catastrophically high oil prices have often turned out to be wrong in the past. In the 1970s, he said, the U.S. Department of Energy predicted that oil prices would rise above $100 a barrel, measured in current dollars. That never happened.

"The failure of oil prices to rise as projected in the late 1970s is a testament to the power of markets and the technologies they foster," Mr. Greenspan said. Adjusted for inflation, today's oil prices are three-fifths of their level in 1981.

Under the circumstances, he said, "the impact of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s."

16-10-2004, 08:09	#448
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	``High oil prices can be sustained,'' said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``If you look at current prices they are still well below what we saw in the 70s and 80s when adjusted for inflation. We have record global growth this year and that's fueling demand and the rise in prices.'' Crude oil for November delivery was up 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $54.90 a barrel at 2:30 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached $55, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. -------------------------------------------------- Notes zur Greenspan-Rede über Öl, zusammengestückelt aus mehreren Artikeln: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he isn't worried by the rise of crude-oil prices to a record $55 a barrel, adding that the U.S. economy is much less vulnerable to such surges now than it was in the 1970s. "The impact of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s," Greenspan said at a luncheon sponsored by the National Italian American Federation. Greenspan said that over the long haul, technological advances and market forces would probably ensure the world had an adequate supply of oil as it makes an eventual transition to other energy sources. "Part of the recent rise in spot prices is expected to wash out over the longer run," Mr. Greenspan said, citing the fact that prices of crude for delivery in 2010 remain well below spot prices. Technological innovation, moreover, will ensure "the needed supplies, at least for a very long time," he said. "The uptrend in world proved reserves is likely to continue at least for a while," Mr. Greenspan said. The remarks suggested the U.S. central bank will persist with its campaign of higher interest rates despite sharply higher oil prices. Crude-oil prices have climbed about 40% in the last 12 months, but the economy has continued to expand at a pace Fed policy makers consider acceptable. The Fed, accordingly, has raised its key interest rate three times since June and is expected to raise it again next month. Mr. Greenspan attributed the increase in long-term oil prices mostly to " rising geopolitical concerns about insecure reserves and the lack of investment to exploit them."... "Heightened worries about the reliability of supply have led to a pronounced increase in the demand to hold larger precautionary inventories of oil," he said. Moreover, "demand from investors who have accumulated large net long positions in distant oil futures and options is expanding again.""Such speculative positions are claims against future oil holdings of oil firms," he said. "Currently, strained capacity has limited the ability of oil producers to quickly satisfy this markedly increased demand for inventory." Mr. Greenspan also said that if oil prices stay high, they will induce a change in consumption patterns that will make the high prices unsustainable. "Much of the capital infrastructure of the United States and elsewhere was built in anticipation of lower real oil prices than currently prevail or are anticipated for the future," he said. "Unless oil prices fall back, some of the more oil-intensive parts of our capital stock would lose part of their competitive edge and, presumably, be displaced, as was the case following the price increases of the late 1970s." Mr. Greenspan said predictions of catastrophically high oil prices have often turned out to be wrong in the past. In the 1970s, he said, the U.S. Department of Energy predicted that oil prices would rise above $100 a barrel, measured in current dollars. That never happened. "The failure of oil prices to rise as projected in the late 1970s is a testament to the power of markets and the technologies they foster," Mr. Greenspan said. Adjusted for inflation, today's oil prices are three-fifths of their level in 1981. Under the circumstances, he said, "the impact of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s."