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Benjamin · 02-02-2005, 17:32

Der geht noch bis zur Trendlinie bei ca. 1,3000 runter und stoppt da, dann reversal und wieder hoch.
Ist meine Vermutung.

Aus aktuellen Meldungen:

Importeure signalisierten derzeit, bei Euro-Dollar-Kursen von 1,32 USD wieder Dollar kaufen zu wollen. Aus technischer Sicht hat der Euro laut DZ Bank gute Chancen, dieses Niveau wieder zu erreichen. Die Gemeinschaftswährung sei unverändert in einem nach oben tendierenden Dreieck gefangen. Dies sei unten bei 1,2990 USD und oben bei 1,3125 USD begrenzt. Die Indikatoren deuteten an, dass der Euro die obere Hürde überspringen und wieder bis an 1,3205 USD hoch laufen kann.

"The dollar should firm against the euro toward $1.29 by the end of March."
--------------------
U.S. Employment Slump May End With January Report, Survey Shows
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The longest U.S. employment slump since the Great Depression may be over.

A projected 200,000 rise in January payrolls and Labor Department revisions covering the last five years may be enough to bring employment above the level seen in March 2001, when the world's largest economy drifted into an eight-month recession.

Productivity

Last year, similar revisions, plus the government's annual benchmark updates using changes in the way it adjusts the data for seasonal variations for the last five years, added about 400,000 jobs to the payroll count.

Employment has languished during the expansion as businesses strove to underpin profits by boosting efficiency and cutting costs. Productivity, or how much a worker can produce per hour, rose 4.4 percent in 2002 and 2003, the first time since records began in 1947 that it exceeded 4 percent in consecutive years. Productivity rose 2.5 percent a year on average from 1996 to 2001 and averaged 1.6 percent from 1970 to 1995.

``Because of a tremendous drive for efficiency, firms have been able to expand without having to hire very many employees,'' said RBS Greenwich Capital's Stanley. ``That is the crux of the reason why it took so long for job growth to get going this time around.''

Fed Comments

Business executives will be stingy about letting slip the hard-fought gains in efficiency.

``You can expect a lot of consistency from us,'' said Wendell Weeks, chief operating officer of Corning Inc., in describing how the world's largest maker of glass used in flat- panel televisions will maintain profits as prices likely fall. ``We expect that we are able to improve our productivity and maintain our margins despite some more moderate pricing pressure,'' Weeks said. Weeks will become the Corning, New York- based company's chief executive in April.

Ben Bernanke, Roger Ferguson Jr., Anthony Santomero, William Poole and Jeffrey Lacker are among Fed policy makers who in recent weeks mentioned productivity changes as an important determinant of the central bank's interest-rate policy. A slowdown in productivity would probably boost employment and wages, raising the threat of inflation and requiring larger rate increases, they said.

Labor Force

Productivity growth of 2 percent to 2.5 percent ``probably represents a good baseline assumption,'' Bernanke, a Fed governor, said in a speech Jan. 19.

The protracted recovery in payrolls didn't prevent the unemployment rate from falling as discouraged workers left the labor force during the recession and stayed away even as more jobs became available. Once a fired worker leaves the labor force, they are no longer counted as unemployed. The jobless rate ended 2004 at 5.4 percent compared with a nine-year high of 6.3 percent reached in June 2003.

The proportion of the population in the labor force, also called the participation rate, reached a 16-year low of 65.9 percent during five months last year and stood at 66 percent in December. It reached a record high 67.3 percent in 2000.

The unexpected drop in the participation rate as the labor market strengthened is one reason Fed policy makers have said the economy may be approaching capacity constraints faster.

``A few participants also noted that uncertainty about the extent of resource slack in the economy was considerable and that it was quite possible that the economy could be operating close to potential, particularly if labor force participation rates did not turn up much while employment continued to register gains,'' the minutes of the Fed's Dec. 14 meeting said.

``Using the old payroll job measure as the quintessential labor market indicator is leading a lot of people astray,'' said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, whose 2004 unemployment forecast was also among the most accurate, according to a December 2003 survey by Bloomberg News. The Fed will ``keep raising rates very modestly to the 3.5 percent to 4 percent range.''
FIRM Unemploy Avg Hrly Nonfarm
Rate Earnings Payroll

Number of replies 69 51 73
MEDIAN 5.4% 0.2% 200
AVERAGE 5.4% 0.2% 191
High Forecast 5.4% 0.3% 250
Low Forecast 5.3% 0.1% 30
Previous 5.4% 0.1% 157
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

US employment cheer beefs up dollar rally
(Filed: 08/01/2005)

The dollar extended its rally yesterday after a US government report showed the world's largest economy was continuing to pull people into employment.

About 157,000 new jobs were generated in December, slightly below the 175,000 economists had predicted, but the figures for November and October were revised upwards to 137,000 and 312,000 respectively. The dollar rose to to £1.8680 against the pound and to €1.3050 against the euro.

It has gained more than 5p against the pound since it started the week at £1.9199, and has enjoyed a similar rise against the euro, opening the week at €1.3589.

Observers reckon monthly job creation of around 150,000 gives the green light to the Federal Reserve to maintain its pace of quarter-point interest rate rises in the near future. The Fed is expected to move next in February, lifting rates to 2½pc.
-------------------------------------------------
Am 7. Januar, als die letzte monatliche US-Arbeitsmarktstatistik veröffentlciht wurde, gab es einen deutlichen Dreh im Kurs.

Letztlich war das allerdings nur das Ende der 3 der 1, also der Beginn der 4 der 1. Die 5 der 1 lag noch tiefer. Die Veröffentlichung brachte also keine nachhaltige "Trendwende", sondern markierte nur den Wechsel auf der Unterwellenebene!
Ziemlich ernüchternd. Jetzt sollte das Ende der 2 daraus werden, nicht nur einer Unterwelle der 2!

Der Folgetermin ist im März der Freitag, 04.03.2005 US Beschäftigte ex Agrar Februar

...while a rise above 1.3120 could kick into gear a further rally to 1.3300...

02-02-2005, 17:32	#1495
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	Der geht noch bis zur Trendlinie bei ca. 1,3000 runter und stoppt da, dann reversal und wieder hoch. Ist meine Vermutung. Aus aktuellen Meldungen: Importeure signalisierten derzeit, bei Euro-Dollar-Kursen von 1,32 USD wieder Dollar kaufen zu wollen. Aus technischer Sicht hat der Euro laut DZ Bank gute Chancen, dieses Niveau wieder zu erreichen. Die Gemeinschaftswährung sei unverändert in einem nach oben tendierenden Dreieck gefangen. Dies sei unten bei 1,2990 USD und oben bei 1,3125 USD begrenzt. Die Indikatoren deuteten an, dass der Euro die obere Hürde überspringen und wieder bis an 1,3205 USD hoch laufen kann. "The dollar should firm against the euro toward $1.29 by the end of March." -------------------- U.S. Employment Slump May End With January Report, Survey Shows Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The longest U.S. employment slump since the Great Depression may be over. A projected 200,000 rise in January payrolls and Labor Department revisions covering the last five years may be enough to bring employment above the level seen in March 2001, when the world's largest economy drifted into an eight-month recession. Productivity Last year, similar revisions, plus the government's annual benchmark updates using changes in the way it adjusts the data for seasonal variations for the last five years, added about 400,000 jobs to the payroll count. Employment has languished during the expansion as businesses strove to underpin profits by boosting efficiency and cutting costs. Productivity, or how much a worker can produce per hour, rose 4.4 percent in 2002 and 2003, the first time since records began in 1947 that it exceeded 4 percent in consecutive years. Productivity rose 2.5 percent a year on average from 1996 to 2001 and averaged 1.6 percent from 1970 to 1995. ``Because of a tremendous drive for efficiency, firms have been able to expand without having to hire very many employees,'' said RBS Greenwich Capital's Stanley. ``That is the crux of the reason why it took so long for job growth to get going this time around.'' Fed Comments Business executives will be stingy about letting slip the hard-fought gains in efficiency. ``You can expect a lot of consistency from us,'' said Wendell Weeks, chief operating officer of Corning Inc., in describing how the world's largest maker of glass used in flat- panel televisions will maintain profits as prices likely fall. ``We expect that we are able to improve our productivity and maintain our margins despite some more moderate pricing pressure,'' Weeks said. Weeks will become the Corning, New York- based company's chief executive in April. Ben Bernanke, Roger Ferguson Jr., Anthony Santomero, William Poole and Jeffrey Lacker are among Fed policy makers who in recent weeks mentioned productivity changes as an important determinant of the central bank's interest-rate policy. A slowdown in productivity would probably boost employment and wages, raising the threat of inflation and requiring larger rate increases, they said. Labor Force Productivity growth of 2 percent to 2.5 percent ``probably represents a good baseline assumption,'' Bernanke, a Fed governor, said in a speech Jan. 19. The protracted recovery in payrolls didn't prevent the unemployment rate from falling as discouraged workers left the labor force during the recession and stayed away even as more jobs became available. Once a fired worker leaves the labor force, they are no longer counted as unemployed. The jobless rate ended 2004 at 5.4 percent compared with a nine-year high of 6.3 percent reached in June 2003. The proportion of the population in the labor force, also called the participation rate, reached a 16-year low of 65.9 percent during five months last year and stood at 66 percent in December. It reached a record high 67.3 percent in 2000. The unexpected drop in the participation rate as the labor market strengthened is one reason Fed policy makers have said the economy may be approaching capacity constraints faster. ``A few participants also noted that uncertainty about the extent of resource slack in the economy was considerable and that it was quite possible that the economy could be operating close to potential, particularly if labor force participation rates did not turn up much while employment continued to register gains,'' the minutes of the Fed's Dec. 14 meeting said. ``Using the old payroll job measure as the quintessential labor market indicator is leading a lot of people astray,'' said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, whose 2004 unemployment forecast was also among the most accurate, according to a December 2003 survey by Bloomberg News. The Fed will ``keep raising rates very modestly to the 3.5 percent to 4 percent range.'' FIRM Unemploy Avg Hrly Nonfarm Rate Earnings Payroll Number of replies 69 51 73 MEDIAN 5.4% 0.2% 200 AVERAGE 5.4% 0.2% 191 High Forecast 5.4% 0.3% 250 Low Forecast 5.3% 0.1% 30 Previous 5.4% 0.1% 157 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- US employment cheer beefs up dollar rally (Filed: 08/01/2005) The dollar extended its rally yesterday after a US government report showed the world's largest economy was continuing to pull people into employment. About 157,000 new jobs were generated in December, slightly below the 175,000 economists had predicted, but the figures for November and October were revised upwards to 137,000 and 312,000 respectively. The dollar rose to to £1.8680 against the pound and to €1.3050 against the euro. It has gained more than 5p against the pound since it started the week at £1.9199, and has enjoyed a similar rise against the euro, opening the week at €1.3589. Observers reckon monthly job creation of around 150,000 gives the green light to the Federal Reserve to maintain its pace of quarter-point interest rate rises in the near future. The Fed is expected to move next in February, lifting rates to 2½pc. ------------------------------------------------- Am 7. Januar, als die letzte monatliche US-Arbeitsmarktstatistik veröffentlciht wurde, gab es einen deutlichen Dreh im Kurs. Letztlich war das allerdings nur das Ende der 3 der 1, also der Beginn der 4 der 1. Die 5 der 1 lag noch tiefer. Die Veröffentlichung brachte also keine nachhaltige "Trendwende", sondern markierte nur den Wechsel auf der Unterwellenebene! Ziemlich ernüchternd. Jetzt sollte das Ende der 2 daraus werden, nicht nur einer Unterwelle der 2! Der Folgetermin ist im März der Freitag, 04.03.2005 US Beschäftigte ex Agrar Februar ...while a rise above 1.3120 could kick into gear a further rally to 1.3300... Geändert von Benjamin (02-02-2005 um 19:11 Uhr)