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Benjamin · 03-02-2005, 15:43

The dollar rose across the board on Thursday after the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged, focusing the market on interest rate differentials.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference after the decision that a key inflation gauge, the harmonized consumer price index, was expected to fall below 2 percent in 2005 without adverse shocks, prompting investors to assume the spread between U.S. and European rates will only widen.

The Federal Reserve hiked its Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent on Wednesday as expected and its statement after the decision cemented expectations of gradual tightening in the future.

In contrast to the Fed, the European Central Bank left its key interest rate steady at a record low of 2 percent for the 20th month in a row, as expected.

"The ECB is not expected to be doing anything on rates for some time to come and Trichet is just reinforcing that," said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary trader with WestLB in New York. "For foreign exchange traders that is just reminding them of interest rate differentials every time the Fed raises rates and the ECB does nothing and that should be dollar bullish."

The yen fell broadly as Japanese investors bought euros for their purchases of euro-denominated bonds.

The dollar did get a small boost from a report that showed U.S. business productivity rose at the smallest advance in almost four years, some said.

"Declining productivity is directly related to a stronger job market and gives the Fed confidence in their continued rate hike plans," said WestLB's Fand.
-------------------------------------
Japanese net sellers of 353.7 bln yen of foreign bonds last week
Thursday, February 3, 2005 4:57:27 AM

These weekly data are closely watched because Japan has the world's largest foreign currency reserves, the vast bulk of which is invested in US Treasuries

Japanese buying of US debt has allowed US interest rates to remain low despite the soaring US twin deficits. Conversely, if the Japanese were to became sustained sellers of US government bonds, US interest rates could shoot up, with profound consequences for global economies and financial markets. Japanese were net sellers for a second straight week, with the amount rising from 272.9 bln yen the previous week, the MoF data show

That has stoked concern about the willingness of foreign investors to keep financing the US trade and current account deficits if the dollar keeps falling. The dollar's value against the yen plummeted by 9 pct from late September to mid-January, or from 111.28 to the yen on September 28 to a five-year low of 101.67 yen on January 17

That drop would have resulted in losses of around 5 pct on Japanese holdings of US Treasuries during that period, after accounting for the approximate 4.1 pct yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond during that period

Since January 17, however, the dollar has strengthened, to as high as 104.33 on January 25. Japan's foreign exchange reserves totalled 844.54 bln usd at the end of December, the highest in the world for the 61st straight month, other MoF data show
-----------------------------------------

Yen Falls; G-7 May Refrain From Urging Stronger Asia Currencies

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) --

The yen dropped against the dollar and euro in Asia on speculation comments out of this weekend's Group of Seven meeting will do nothing to address European calls for Asian countries to allow their currencies to appreciate.

``Expectations that something would be done about European complaints about Japan and Asia sharing the burden of the dollar's decline at the G-7 are diminishing, said Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG. ``The yen is a sell both economically and tactically . Business conditions aren't good in Japan,'' Diese Einschätzung widerspricht der Interpretation eines Dreiecks im Chart. Wenn der Mann recht haben sollte, dann gäbe es bereits ein langfristiges Low im Chart und nun eine NACHHALTIGE Yen-Abwertung!

The yen may decline to 105 per dollar and 138 a euro in a month, Davies said.

The dollar was also bought on forecasts a government report tomorrow will show the U.S. economy created the most jobs in three months in January.

``There's no doubt that the job market is recovering, setting up the Fed to extend its rate increases well into this year,'' said Shimpei Uike, an investor of overseas debt at Asahi Life Asset Management, which manages the equivalent of $10.5 billion. ``That's going to increase the advantage of the dollar.''

The world's biggest economy probably created 200,000 jobs in January, according to the median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report will be released tomorrow.

The projected gain, along with Labor Department revisions for the past five years, may bring employment above the level seen in March 2001, when the economy fell into an eight-month recession.

The U.S. currency strengthened 3.8 percent last month versus the euro, the biggest rally since May 2001, and gained 1 percent against the yen. The advance was stoked by minutes from the Fed's Dec. 14 meeting, released on Jan. 4, that said the key interest rate is still ``below the level'' needed to slow inflation, fueling speculation of faster increases.

An extended jobs recovery ``would probably make the Fed a little more aggressive than the market expects, which will help the dollar longer term,'' said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist in Boston at Investors Bank & Trust Co., which has $1.1 trillion in assets.
-------------------------

The dollar traded at its richest against the Japanese yen in three weeks, pushed there by mostly upbeat U.S. economic data and expectations for a strong U.S. payrolls report on Friday. "President Bush's pledge to cut the deficits [in his Wednesday State of the Union address] has helped offset market concerns about [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan's speech tomorrow on the current account deficit," added Ronald Simpson, currency analyst with Action Economics.

Im Vorfeld des am 4. und 5. Februar stattfindenden G7-Treffens neigt der Yen weiter zur Stärke, so die Experten von Activest.

Spekulationen, dass auf diesem Treffen Hinweise auf eine Aufwertung des chinesischen Yuan gegeben würden, würden auch die japanische Währung beflügeln. Angesichts der großen Unterbeschäftigung und der Probleme im Bankensektor werde China jedoch alles tun, um eine Aufwertung zu vermeiden, so dass der Yen von dieser Seite nicht weiter unter Aufwertungsdruck geraten sollte. Zudem habe sich die Serie schwacher Konjunkturdaten aus Japan in der jüngsten Zeit fortgesetzt, was die Bereitschaft der japanischen Regierung zu Währungsinterventionen in den nächsten Monaten fördern sollte. So seien die Industrieproduktion und die Konsumausgaben im Dezember im Vergleich zum Vormonat geschrumpft.

Auch die Verbraucherpreise seien im Vergleich zum Dezember wieder leicht gesunken, so dass die Deflation, das Hauptproblem der japanischen Wirtschaft, noch nicht überwunden sei. Demzufolge werde die japanische Zentralbank an ihrer Nullzinspolitik bis auf weiteres nichts ändern. Ein Lichtblick sei der nach wie vor gute Arbeitsmarkt. So habe sich die Arbeitslosenquote im Dezember auf 4,4% von zuvor 4,5% verbessert. Insgesamt sollte Japan weiter vom Aufschwung in China profitieren, während die Nachfrage aus den USA etwas nachlassen sollte.

Die Einschätzung der Analysten für den japanischen Aktienmarkt bleibe weiter positiv. Der Grund dafür liege in den deutlichen Gewinnsteigerungen, die nun schon das vierte Jahr in Folge im zweistelligen Bereich liegen sollten. Die durchgeführten strukturellen Veränderungen im Unternehmensbereich und eine deutliche Verbesserung der Bonität des Finanzsystems seien dafür entscheidend. Die sich zwar schon wieder etwas abschwächende konjunkturelle Belebung habe den japanischen Unternehmen dennoch den nötigen Spielraum eröffnet, die lange verschleppten strukturellen Probleme anzugehen. Chancen sähen die Analysten gegenwärtig besonders bei den exportabhängigen Automobilproduzenten, die zuletzt aufgrund der Yen-Stärke deutlich negativ beeinträchtigt worden seien.

Die japanischen Renditen befänden sich seit August in einer Range zwischen 1,4% und 1,6%. Dabei sollte es aufgrund der nachlassenden Wachstumsdynamik auch zunächst bleiben. Insgesamt bleibe die Entwicklung der Renditen gegenwärtig aber ohnehin wenig fundamental getrieben. Stattdessen werde die reichlich vorhandene Liquidität im Inland fast ausschließlich zum Erwerb von Anleihen verwendet, weil es keine positive Kreditnachfrage gebe.

03-02-2005, 15:43	#1520
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	The dollar rose across the board on Thursday after the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged, focusing the market on interest rate differentials. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference after the decision that a key inflation gauge, the harmonized consumer price index, was expected to fall below 2 percent in 2005 without adverse shocks, prompting investors to assume the spread between U.S. and European rates will only widen. The Federal Reserve hiked its Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent on Wednesday as expected and its statement after the decision cemented expectations of gradual tightening in the future. In contrast to the Fed, the European Central Bank left its key interest rate steady at a record low of 2 percent for the 20th month in a row, as expected. "The ECB is not expected to be doing anything on rates for some time to come and Trichet is just reinforcing that," said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary trader with WestLB in New York. "For foreign exchange traders that is just reminding them of interest rate differentials every time the Fed raises rates and the ECB does nothing and that should be dollar bullish." The yen fell broadly as Japanese investors bought euros for their purchases of euro-denominated bonds. The dollar did get a small boost from a report that showed U.S. business productivity rose at the smallest advance in almost four years, some said. "Declining productivity is directly related to a stronger job market and gives the Fed confidence in their continued rate hike plans," said WestLB's Fand. ------------------------------------- Japanese net sellers of 353.7 bln yen of foreign bonds last week Thursday, February 3, 2005 4:57:27 AM These weekly data are closely watched because Japan has the world's largest foreign currency reserves, the vast bulk of which is invested in US Treasuries Japanese buying of US debt has allowed US interest rates to remain low despite the soaring US twin deficits. Conversely, if the Japanese were to became sustained sellers of US government bonds, US interest rates could shoot up, with profound consequences for global economies and financial markets. Japanese were net sellers for a second straight week, with the amount rising from 272.9 bln yen the previous week, the MoF data show That has stoked concern about the willingness of foreign investors to keep financing the US trade and current account deficits if the dollar keeps falling. The dollar's value against the yen plummeted by 9 pct from late September to mid-January, or from 111.28 to the yen on September 28 to a five-year low of 101.67 yen on January 17 That drop would have resulted in losses of around 5 pct on Japanese holdings of US Treasuries during that period, after accounting for the approximate 4.1 pct yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond during that period Since January 17, however, the dollar has strengthened, to as high as 104.33 on January 25. Japan's foreign exchange reserves totalled 844.54 bln usd at the end of December, the highest in the world for the 61st straight month, other MoF data show ----------------------------------------- Yen Falls; G-7 May Refrain From Urging Stronger Asia Currencies Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen dropped against the dollar and euro in Asia on speculation comments out of this weekend's Group of Seven meeting will do nothing to address European calls for Asian countries to allow their currencies to appreciate. ``Expectations that something would be done about European complaints about Japan and Asia sharing the burden of the dollar's decline at the G-7 are diminishing, said Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG. ``The yen is a sell both economically and tactically . Business conditions aren't good in Japan,'' Diese Einschätzung widerspricht der Interpretation eines Dreiecks im Chart. Wenn der Mann recht haben sollte, dann gäbe es bereits ein langfristiges Low im Chart und nun eine NACHHALTIGE Yen-Abwertung! The yen may decline to 105 per dollar and 138 a euro in a month, Davies said. The dollar was also bought on forecasts a government report tomorrow will show the U.S. economy created the most jobs in three months in January. ``There's no doubt that the job market is recovering, setting up the Fed to extend its rate increases well into this year,'' said Shimpei Uike, an investor of overseas debt at Asahi Life Asset Management, which manages the equivalent of $10.5 billion. ``That's going to increase the advantage of the dollar.'' The world's biggest economy probably created 200,000 jobs in January, according to the median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report will be released tomorrow. The projected gain, along with Labor Department revisions for the past five years, may bring employment above the level seen in March 2001, when the economy fell into an eight-month recession. The U.S. currency strengthened 3.8 percent last month versus the euro, the biggest rally since May 2001, and gained 1 percent against the yen. The advance was stoked by minutes from the Fed's Dec. 14 meeting, released on Jan. 4, that said the key interest rate is still ``below the level'' needed to slow inflation, fueling speculation of faster increases. An extended jobs recovery ``would probably make the Fed a little more aggressive than the market expects, which will help the dollar longer term,'' said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist in Boston at Investors Bank & Trust Co., which has $1.1 trillion in assets. ------------------------- The dollar traded at its richest against the Japanese yen in three weeks, pushed there by mostly upbeat U.S. economic data and expectations for a strong U.S. payrolls report on Friday. "President Bush's pledge to cut the deficits [in his Wednesday State of the Union address] has helped offset market concerns about [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan's speech tomorrow on the current account deficit," added Ronald Simpson, currency analyst with Action Economics. Im Vorfeld des am 4. und 5. Februar stattfindenden G7-Treffens neigt der Yen weiter zur Stärke, so die Experten von Activest. Spekulationen, dass auf diesem Treffen Hinweise auf eine Aufwertung des chinesischen Yuan gegeben würden, würden auch die japanische Währung beflügeln. Angesichts der großen Unterbeschäftigung und der Probleme im Bankensektor werde China jedoch alles tun, um eine Aufwertung zu vermeiden, so dass der Yen von dieser Seite nicht weiter unter Aufwertungsdruck geraten sollte. Zudem habe sich die Serie schwacher Konjunkturdaten aus Japan in der jüngsten Zeit fortgesetzt, was die Bereitschaft der japanischen Regierung zu Währungsinterventionen in den nächsten Monaten fördern sollte. So seien die Industrieproduktion und die Konsumausgaben im Dezember im Vergleich zum Vormonat geschrumpft. Auch die Verbraucherpreise seien im Vergleich zum Dezember wieder leicht gesunken, so dass die Deflation, das Hauptproblem der japanischen Wirtschaft, noch nicht überwunden sei. Demzufolge werde die japanische Zentralbank an ihrer Nullzinspolitik bis auf weiteres nichts ändern. Ein Lichtblick sei der nach wie vor gute Arbeitsmarkt. So habe sich die Arbeitslosenquote im Dezember auf 4,4% von zuvor 4,5% verbessert. Insgesamt sollte Japan weiter vom Aufschwung in China profitieren, während die Nachfrage aus den USA etwas nachlassen sollte. Die Einschätzung der Analysten für den japanischen Aktienmarkt bleibe weiter positiv. Der Grund dafür liege in den deutlichen Gewinnsteigerungen, die nun schon das vierte Jahr in Folge im zweistelligen Bereich liegen sollten. Die durchgeführten strukturellen Veränderungen im Unternehmensbereich und eine deutliche Verbesserung der Bonität des Finanzsystems seien dafür entscheidend. Die sich zwar schon wieder etwas abschwächende konjunkturelle Belebung habe den japanischen Unternehmen dennoch den nötigen Spielraum eröffnet, die lange verschleppten strukturellen Probleme anzugehen. Chancen sähen die Analysten gegenwärtig besonders bei den exportabhängigen Automobilproduzenten, die zuletzt aufgrund der Yen-Stärke deutlich negativ beeinträchtigt worden seien. Die japanischen Renditen befänden sich seit August in einer Range zwischen 1,4% und 1,6%. Dabei sollte es aufgrund der nachlassenden Wachstumsdynamik auch zunächst bleiben. Insgesamt bleibe die Entwicklung der Renditen gegenwärtig aber ohnehin wenig fundamental getrieben. Stattdessen werde die reichlich vorhandene Liquidität im Inland fast ausschließlich zum Erwerb von Anleihen verwendet, weil es keine positive Kreditnachfrage gebe. Geändert von Benjamin (03-02-2005 um 16:41 Uhr)