[Goldfisch]

PS. nun bin ich von meinem Caraibikurlaub erholt zurück und möchte gleich ein paar Infos zur aktuellen Lage auf dem Ölmarkt ins Board stellen.

Oil Trades Near $64 on Refinery Outages, Middle East Concern

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures were little changed, near $64 a barrel in New York, after Valero Energy Corp., the third- largest U.S. refiner, said a fire at its McKee plant in Texas will cut gasoline production for five days.

Refineries have had at least 12 shutdowns in the past three weeks in the world's biggest market, helping to send gasoline to a record yesterday. Threats of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia following the death of King Fahd and the resumption of Iran's nuclear program heightened concern that oil supplies from the Middle East could be jeopardized.

``There's been no let-up in demand for gasoline'' and refiners are straining to keep up, said Chris Mennis, owner of oil trader New Wave Energy in Aptos, California. If al-Qaeda is planning an attack in Saudi Arabia, it may do so soon as ``there's a little bit of a vacuum there because of the death of King Fahd,'' he said.

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $64.27, the highest since the contract was introduced on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983. It was trading up 2 cents at 9:09 a.m. London time.

Yesterday, oil jumped 35 cents in 30 minutes to $64.25 after Valero said the fire may curb gasoline production by 50,000 barrels a day at the McKee refinery, which can process 175,000 barrels a day. The cut is equal to 0.5 percent of U.S. demand, which has averaged 9.5 million barrels a day in the past month, according to the Energy Department.

The contract yesterday surged $1.63, or 2.6 percent, to close at a record $63.94 a barrel, having earlier reached $64. Prices today are 43 percent higher than a year ago.

Unplanned Closures

BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp., Sunoco Inc., Chevron Corp., Valero and Murphy Oil Corp. were among refiners with unplanned closures at U.S. plants in the past three weeks. Valero, ConocoPhillips and Sunoco reported more glitches yesterday.

``Large margins available to produce gasoline and purchases of oil that go with it are lending upside support to crude oil prices,'' said Makoto Takeda, an energy analyst at Iriya Bansei Securities Co. in Tokyo.

Terrorists in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, may be in the final stages of planning attacks there, the U.K. Foreign Office said yesterday. Iran, the Middle East's second- largest oil producer, has provoked a ``grave crisis'' by resuming uranium conversion work, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste- Blazy said, according to Agence France-Presse.

``Yesterday's Saudi terror report and continuing U.S. refinery troubles means future supply concerns have strengthened,'' said Kazuhiko Saito, a commodity strategist at Interes Capital Management in Tokyo.

Middle East

Iran resumed uranium conversion at its nuclear plant in the city of Isfahan yesterday, which may prompt the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency has called an emergency meeting to consider the issue.

If the UN imposes sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Republic may retaliate by stopping oil exports, New Wave's Mennis said.

Iranian crude oil made up 11 percent of all oil imported in June by Japan, according to the latest figures from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. About 13 million barrels, or about 11 percent, of Iran's production in June was shipped to Japan, the world's second-largest oil importer.

``Iran taking production off markets would be a real blow,'' said Tetsu Emori, chief strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo. ``There's concern whether they could use oil as a weapon.''

Saudi Arabia

The U.S. yesterday shut its Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran because of a threat against U.S. government buildings in Saudi Arabia. The U.K. has allowed non-essential diplomatic staff to leave the kingdom.

The threats follow King Fahd's death on Aug. 1, which increased speculation about the stability of output from the region.

A change in Saudi Arabia's laws of succession in 1992 decrees the most capable prince be selected as king by the Saud family and may open the way for a power struggle, John Bradley, a Middle East historian, said in a telephone interview. Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al- Saud, who succeeded King Fahd on Aug. 3, is in his 80s, as is Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz.

Saudi security forces for more than two years have been battling suspected sympathizers of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, who have targeted westerners in a bid to undermine the ruling Saud family and threaten the oil industry.

An attack would not need to be on Saudi oil infrastructure to push oil prices higher, New Wave's Mennis said.

``It doesn't really need to stop the oil coming,'' he said. ``It just needs to scare off the westerners.''

Gasoline

Gasoline for September delivery touched $1.874 a gallon yesterday, the highest since trading began in 1984. The contract rose 1.4 percent to $1.8570 yesterday and today it was trading little changed.

U.S. gasoline reserves have fallen for five straight weeks and at the end of last month were at their lowest since November. Inventories probably fell another 2 million barrels last week, according to the median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

New York oil futures will reach $65 as the U.S. energy department's oil inventory report released tomorrow in Washington is expected to show a large decline in gasoline supplies, Interes Capital's Saito said.

Traders are ``watching at least six different refineries that have had some glitches,'' said Carl Adams, president of Illinois Ayers Oil Co. Adams' Quincy-based company operates 40 retail fuel outlets in Illinois and Iowa. ``That really fuels the upward trend. It just pushes those prices higher.''

A two-week unit shutdown at Valero's refinery in Ardmore, Oklahoma, will cut daily gasoline output by 17,000 barrels and distillate output by 15,000 barrels, the company said.

Power Interruption

ConocoPhillips, the largest U.S. oil refiner, suffered a power interruption over the weekend at its Borger, Texas, refinery, according to a filing with the state's Commission on Environmental Quality.

Sunoco, the largest oil refiner in the U.S. Northeast, said two workers were injured during a weekend fire at its Philadelphia refining complex. The site can process 330,000 barrels of crude oil a day. The company wouldn't say whether production is affected.

Indian Oil Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar says the rise in crude oil prices does not have any justification because there is enough oil to meet the demand. India is Asia's third-largest oil consumer after China and Japan.

``The mindless speculation in crude oil prices in New York is the primary cause for this because there is absolutely nothing else that justifies such a rise in prices,'' Aiyar said in a telephone interview in New Delhi. ``It is very worrisome.''

Aiyar said while there is a concern supplies might get disrupted, it was not a strong reason for the surge in prices to a record.

President George W. Bush yesterday signed into law $14.5 billion in tax breaks for U.S. energy companies and incentives to develop alternative fuel sources that he said would lessen U.S. dependence on foreign oil in the future.