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Benjamin · 22-06-2006, 13:45

Donnerstag, 22.06.2006
US Frühindikatoren Mai
Uhrzeit: 16:00 (MEZ)
Ort: Washington, D.C.
Land: Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika
Uhrzeit vor Ort: 10:00
Beschreibung:
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Frühindikatoren (Leading Indicators) für Mai 2006

Die Frühindikatoren sind um 0,6 % gesunken. Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang um 0,5 bis 0,6 % nach zuvor -0,1 %.
***************
Rezession damit noch nicht da, aber am Horizont erkennbar. Nähere Begründung siehe http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...672#post248672

In der Presse steht das natürlich nicht so drastisch drin. Hier eine USA-Quelle:

Leading indicators fall 0.6% in May
Index suggests "slow to moderate' growth, Conference Board says
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:16 AM ET Jun 22, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.6% in May, suggesting that the economy is likely to grow at a "slow to moderate' pace in the near term, the Conference Board said Thursday.
Economists were expecting the index to decline 0.4%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The leading index fell 0.1% in April, and has fallen in three of the past four months. It's down 0.2% over the past six months, with half of the 10 indicators showing weakness.
The index is designed to help forecast turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead.
"The current behavior of the leading index so far suggests that the rapid pace of economic activity in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained and economic growth should continue, but at a slow to moderate rate in the near term," the Conference Board said.
The cumulative impact of higher energy prices, a slowing housing market, higher interest rates, lower confidence and even higher taxes in some regions have combined to slow the economy, said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research institution. "Given the slower pace, the economy has less ability to absorb another round of strong hurricanes this summer."
Seven of 10 leading indicators were negative in May , the board said. The biggest negative contributors were weekly jobless claims, consumer expectations and money supply. Other negatives were factory work hours, building permits, stock prices and vendor performance. Jobless claims were skewed much lower in May by a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico.
Three indicators were positive: core capital goods orders, consumer goods orders and the interest rate spread.
In May, the coincident index rose 0.1%. The lagging index rose 0.2%.
Some of the biggest negatives in May have improved in June. Consumer expectations rose slightly in the preliminary University of Michigan survey for June. Jobless claims have also been lower (and therefore a positive contributor) so far in June, despite an increase in the most recent week to 308,000.
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U.S. Economy: Leading Index Falls by Most in 9 Months (Update3)
June 22 (Bloomberg)

An index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell in May by the most in nine months , signaling the robust pace of growth earlier this year will give way to a slower expansion.

The Conference Board's index declined 0.6 percent after a 0.1 percent drop in April, the New York-based group said today. The gauge last fell in consecutive months in February and March 2001.

Two years of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve are driving down consumer sentiment, building permits and stock prices. The economy may cool further as policy makers signal they will push borrowing costs higher next week, and traders bet that an additional increase is forthcoming.

``It looks like this is going to be another soft patch,'' said Haseeb Ahmed, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in New York. ``The Fed is going to get exactly what it was hoping for, but unfortunately the inflation numbers are just not helping.''

Economists expected the index to decline 0.5 percent, according to the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.7 percent to an increase of 0.3 percent. The Conference Board's index points to the direction of the economy over the next six months.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed 308,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week, up from a four- month low of 297,000 in the previous week.

Treasury Market

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 5.19 percent as of 11:16 a.m. in New York. Interest-rate futures show traders are fully expecting the Fed to raise rates a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent when it meets June 28-29. The odds of another move in August were 80 percent, up from near zero percent at the end of last month.

Economic growth is forecast to average about 3 percent from the second quarter through the first three months of 2007, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists taken from May 30 to June 7. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in the first quarter.

``Right now, (the economy's) strong but I think there are a lot of warning signs on the horizon,'' said Gary Kelly, chief executive of Southwest Airlines Co., in an interview on June 16. ``We're worried about the same things everyone else is worried about: rising interest rates, rising energy prices and the weakening housing market.''

Higher jobless claims and lower consumer expectations, which were the biggest drags on the index last month, have since reversed and may boost the June reading, economists said.

Jobless Claims in May

The weekly jobless claims figures from the Labor Department have receded since averaging 333,500 in May, when a temporary government shutdown in Puerto Rico closed 50 agencies and public schools. Claims subtracted 0.19 percentage point from the leading index.

Seven of 10 leading indicators had a negative effect on the May index , today's report showed.

Building permits, a sign of future construction , subtracted 0.06 percentage point from the index. The Commerce Department said this week that permits dropped in May to the lowest level since November 2003 .

``The builders have known that the boom market we've been in is not going to last forever,'' Mick Pattinson, chief executive officer of Barratt American Inc., said in a June 20 interview. Carlsbad, California-based Barratt builds homes in the western U.S. ``We have cut back our building a little bit, but not tremendously.''

Pattinson said there has been an increase in order cancellations at Barratt, though ``not on a massive scale.''

Consumer Confidence

High gasoline prices in addition to rising borrowing costs caused consumer confidence to decline in May. The University of Michigan's index of consumer expectations fell to 68.2 during the month, the lowest level since October.

The leading index also reflected a decline in stock prices , which subtracted 0.04 percentage point from the May figure. The Standard & Poor's Index of 500 stocks averaged 1290, down from 1302.2 a month earlier.

Seven of the index's 10 indicators are known before the report is released: jobless claims, consumer expectations, the yield curve, building permits, stock prices, supplier delivery times and factory hours. The Conference Board assumes measures for money supply adjusted for inflation, new orders for consumer goods and business equipment .

Money supply adjusted for inflation, the component with the greatest weighting in the leading economic indicators index, subtracted 0.14 percentage point from the gauge.

Sentiment Improving

The leading index may improve this month, reflecting the drop in jobless claims and a pickup in consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan's consumer expectations index inched up to 69.2 the first half of this month as gasoline prices retreated from a seven-month high set in May.

``Next month, claims will probably be an add, and consumer expectations, if they don't add, will at least level off,'' said Glenn Haberbush, an economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York.

The three measures that had a positive effect on the index were new orders for consumer goods and business equipment, as well as the yield curve. Orders for equipment added 0.04 percentage point to the May leading index.

The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.2 percent in April. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and projections.

The gauge of lagging indicators rose 0.2 percent for a third month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, services prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit.

22-06-2006, 13:45	#150
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	Donnerstag, 22.06.2006 US Frühindikatoren Mai Uhrzeit: 16:00 (MEZ) Ort: Washington, D.C. Land: Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika Uhrzeit vor Ort: 10:00 Beschreibung: Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Frühindikatoren (Leading Indicators) für Mai 2006 Die Frühindikatoren sind um 0,6 % gesunken. Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang um 0,5 bis 0,6 % nach zuvor -0,1 %. ************* Rezession damit noch nicht da, aber am Horizont erkennbar. Nähere Begründung siehe http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...672#post248672 In der Presse steht das natürlich nicht so drastisch drin. Hier eine USA-Quelle: Leading indicators fall 0.6% in May Index suggests "slow to moderate' growth, Conference Board says By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last Update: 10:16 AM ET Jun 22, 2006 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.6% in May, suggesting that the economy is likely to grow at a "slow to moderate' pace in the near term, the Conference Board said Thursday. Economists were expecting the index to decline 0.4%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. The leading index fell 0.1% in April, and has fallen in three of the past four months. It's down 0.2% over the past six months, with half of the 10 indicators showing weakness. The index is designed to help forecast turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead. "The current behavior of the leading index so far suggests that the rapid pace of economic activity in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained and economic growth should continue, but at a slow to moderate rate in the near term," the Conference Board said. The cumulative impact of higher energy prices, a slowing housing market, higher interest rates, lower confidence and even higher taxes in some regions have combined to slow the economy, said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research institution. "Given the slower pace, the economy has less ability to absorb another round of strong hurricanes this summer." Seven of 10 leading indicators were negative in May , the board said. The biggest negative contributors were weekly jobless claims, consumer expectations and money supply. Other negatives were factory work hours, building permits, stock prices and vendor performance. Jobless claims were skewed much lower in May by a partial government shutdown in Puerto Rico. Three indicators were positive: core capital goods orders, consumer goods orders and the interest rate spread. In May, the coincident index rose 0.1%. The lagging index rose 0.2%. Some of the biggest negatives in May have improved in June. Consumer expectations rose slightly in the preliminary University of Michigan survey for June. Jobless claims have also been lower (and therefore a positive contributor) so far in June, despite an increase in the most recent week to 308,000. ***************************** U.S. Economy: Leading Index Falls by Most in 9 Months (Update3) June 22 (Bloomberg) An index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell in May by the most in nine months , signaling the robust pace of growth earlier this year will give way to a slower expansion. The Conference Board's index declined 0.6 percent after a 0.1 percent drop in April, the New York-based group said today. The gauge last fell in consecutive months in February and March 2001. Two years of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve are driving down consumer sentiment, building permits and stock prices. The economy may cool further as policy makers signal they will push borrowing costs higher next week, and traders bet that an additional increase is forthcoming. ``It looks like this is going to be another soft patch,'' said Haseeb Ahmed, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in New York. ``The Fed is going to get exactly what it was hoping for, but unfortunately the inflation numbers are just not helping.'' Economists expected the index to decline 0.5 percent, according to the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.7 percent to an increase of 0.3 percent. The Conference Board's index points to the direction of the economy over the next six months. A separate report from the Labor Department showed 308,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week, up from a four- month low of 297,000 in the previous week. Treasury Market The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 5.19 percent as of 11:16 a.m. in New York. Interest-rate futures show traders are fully expecting the Fed to raise rates a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent when it meets June 28-29. The odds of another move in August were 80 percent, up from near zero percent at the end of last month. Economic growth is forecast to average about 3 percent from the second quarter through the first three months of 2007, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists taken from May 30 to June 7. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in the first quarter. ``Right now, (the economy's) strong but I think there are a lot of warning signs on the horizon,'' said Gary Kelly, chief executive of Southwest Airlines Co., in an interview on June 16. ``We're worried about the same things everyone else is worried about: rising interest rates, rising energy prices and the weakening housing market.'' Higher jobless claims and lower consumer expectations, which were the biggest drags on the index last month, have since reversed and may boost the June reading, economists said. Jobless Claims in May The weekly jobless claims figures from the Labor Department have receded since averaging 333,500 in May, when a temporary government shutdown in Puerto Rico closed 50 agencies and public schools. Claims subtracted 0.19 percentage point from the leading index. Seven of 10 leading indicators had a negative effect on the May index , today's report showed. Building permits, a sign of future construction , subtracted 0.06 percentage point from the index. The Commerce Department said this week that permits dropped in May to the lowest level since November 2003 . ``The builders have known that the boom market we've been in is not going to last forever,'' Mick Pattinson, chief executive officer of Barratt American Inc., said in a June 20 interview. Carlsbad, California-based Barratt builds homes in the western U.S. ``We have cut back our building a little bit, but not tremendously.'' Pattinson said there has been an increase in order cancellations at Barratt, though ``not on a massive scale.'' Consumer Confidence High gasoline prices in addition to rising borrowing costs caused consumer confidence to decline in May. The University of Michigan's index of consumer expectations fell to 68.2 during the month, the lowest level since October. The leading index also reflected a decline in stock prices , which subtracted 0.04 percentage point from the May figure. The Standard & Poor's Index of 500 stocks averaged 1290, down from 1302.2 a month earlier. Seven of the index's 10 indicators are known before the report is released: jobless claims, consumer expectations, the yield curve, building permits, stock prices, supplier delivery times and factory hours. The Conference Board assumes measures for money supply adjusted for inflation, new orders for consumer goods and business equipment . Money supply adjusted for inflation, the component with the greatest weighting in the leading economic indicators index, subtracted 0.14 percentage point from the gauge. Sentiment Improving The leading index may improve this month, reflecting the drop in jobless claims and a pickup in consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan's consumer expectations index inched up to 69.2 the first half of this month as gasoline prices retreated from a seven-month high set in May. ``Next month, claims will probably be an add, and consumer expectations, if they don't add, will at least level off,'' said Glenn Haberbush, an economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. The three measures that had a positive effect on the index were new orders for consumer goods and business equipment, as well as the yield curve.** Orders for equipment added 0.04 percentage point to the May leading index. The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.2 percent in April. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and projections. The gauge of lagging indicators rose 0.2 percent for a third month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, services prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit. Geändert von Benjamin (22-06-2006 um 17:14 Uhr)