Early in the year I gave you a forecast the
Dollar Index was going down into June of 2007 and
will go to either 73 or 67. Those are
huge declines and would take an outside event to bring that about but that is what the charts are telling me.
The index is now in a capitulation trend down and will exhaust into a temporary low, possibly as low as 78 and a then another bounce. The long term downtrend has resumed.
We looked at this chart in the beginning of the year and I reported that the rally had only gone up ¼ of the range down (remember this is a monthly chart) and if that was the entire rally the Dollar could manage the fast downtrend was still intact and would
go down into June of next year according to the 12 year cycle. I am assuming it will go down
below the last low to 72.78 and
possibly a worst-case scenario to 67, which would be a real panic and would take an outside event. Short-term support is around 80.4 and 78.2. It is now testing the “obvious” support but if you look closely there were 5 months up and now in one and a half months it has taken back that entire run up and considering the small ¼ retracement this is in a fast trend down. A rally could occur at the “obvious” support as it appears to be capitulating but that rally would be a counter trend and will run down to the 78 price level in this dollar index.
Aktueller Dollar-Index: http://www.futuresource.com/charts/c...RSI%2814%29%3B
