EIA: US Natural Gas Demand To Rise 4.5% in 2007,
Less In '89
11. Sept. 07
U.S. demand for natural gas is expected to jump 4.5% this year, due to increases in residential, commercial and power-sector consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted Tuesday.
If the prediction holds true, it would be the largest yearly jump in U.S. gas demand over the last 11 years , according to data in the EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The last big yearly jump in gas demand was in 2000, when gas demand rose 3.9% over the previous year.
By contrast, 2006 U.S. gas demand was 1.9% below the previous year, according to the data. The EIA predicts nationwide gas demand will rise only 0.3% in 2008.
The agency predicts that U.S. gas stocks will remain above their corresponding five-year average through December 2008, with a larger surplus seen this December, compared to December 2008. The U.S. has about 3.005 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage as of Aug. 31, 10.4% above the five-year average.
Spot natural gas prices for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub averaged $6.37 a thousand cubic feet in August, about the same as July, the EIA reported. The agency predicts the average Henry Hub spot price will reach a winter peak of $9.01/mcf in January, following a year in which prices are expected to average about $7.31/mcf. The EIA predicts Henry Hub spot prices will average about $8.07/mcf in 2008.
Gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is likely to drop by 4.3% in 2007, then jump 7.1% in 2008 with the start-up of new deepwater production facilities, the EIA predicts. Onshore gas production in the lower 48 states is seen rising 1.7% this year, led by strong growth in the second quarter, with an additional 0.3% increase next year, the EIA said. Total U.S. natural gas production is seen increasing 0.8% in 2007 and 1.3% in 2008, the agency concluded.
Liquefied natural gas imports this year are expected to be about 47% above last year's, with an additional 19% rise seen in 2008, the EIA said. High U.S. natural gas prices in the first half of 2007, compared to other countries, attracted the additional imports, the agency said. Growing global LNG demand in the near term is seen slowing imports to the U.S. for the third and fourth quarters of 2007, with imports expected to pick up in early 2008, the EIA predicted.
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