March 09 2009:
The US dollar index moved to a new high in March and failed. This remains in the 1/3 to 3/8 retracement of the last leg down and is very important resistance. I thought around March 18 was a valid date for a high but that seems too soon considering this index usually needs to distribute for a month or so. But because of the failure at the previous high (obvious resistance) it is important to look at the next rally to see if there is a possibility it can be qualified as a counter trend.
Critical support for holding the up trend is marked on the chart. Technically there has developed a probability for a top so we’re looking for evidence of distribution and that lower high. No signals yet - just a point of interest so far.