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Benjamin · 17-11-2005, 13:31

Ich habe einmal die Original-Pressemitteilung recherchiert, zu der ich meine obigen Anmerkungen schrieb. Da steht die Einheit:
US cents/lb
Oben hatte ich €-cent gerechnet, weil der 1. Artikel keine Einheit nannte.
Pfund in Dollar:

ca. 1,72 $ für ein £ sterling.

854 £ sterling/tonne steht heute der Jul '06-Kontrakt in London.
das sind dann umgerechnet 0,666 $/pound = 66,6 US-cent/pound.

Der aktuelle Dec '05-Kontrakt steht bei 807 £ sterling/tonne, das sind umgerechnet 62,96 US-cent/pound .

Die EIU hat für
2005: 69,6
2006: 61,6
2007: 55,3
angegeben.

Der Unterschied vom heutigen Ist-Kurs zum 2006-Schätzkurs beträgt also gerade mal 2,2%. Erst für den 2007-Schätzwert beträgt der entsprechende Gradient 12,2% vom heutigen Ist-Kurs aus betrachtet. Umgerechnet in £ sterling/tonne zum heutigen Wechselkurs würde ein Preisabfall von 12,2% bis 2007 einen Preis von 708,5 bedeuten, gemessen auf der Skala des Dez. 05-Kontaktes .

Der Unterschied zwischen der EIU-Prognose für 2007 (55,3 US-cent/pound ) und dem aktuellen Future-Preis für 2007 (Sep '07 Future steht bei 930 £ sterling/tonne = 72,6 US-cent/pound ) als Marktkonsens ist enorm!

----------------------------------------------

07 Nov 2005
http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?layou...77&ref=pr_list

Emergence of market surpluses provides bearish undertone to soft commodities, says the Economist Intelligence Unit

Unlike the previous two years, when there was a synchronised increase in soft commodity prices, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a more varied picture over the next couple of years. Rising prices across the agricultural markets pushed the food, feedstuffs and beverages (FFB) index up by almost 9% in 2004. In 2005, however, we see weakness in the grain and oilseed markets offsetting strength in beverages and sugar-with the result that the FFB index will be marginally lower than in 2004. In 2006, a tighter grains market will be unable to offset bearish trends in many of the other commodities, and the FFB index will drop by nearly 4%. We project a further fall in 2007 (albeit by less than 1%), as market surpluses start developing in the beverage, oilseed, and also sugar markets.

Crop shortfalls for coffee and cocoa have resulted in much tighter market conditions this season and the beverages price index is set to rise by 19% in 2005. However, compared with three months ago the medium term outlook has turned slightly more bearish, with recent crop reports suggesting an improvement in Brazil and Vietnam's coffee output. As the beverage supply-side recovers in 2006, most of this year's price gains will be wiped out. The decline will continue into 2007 as production eventually overtakes demand. Sugar prices, which have been rising sharply in 2005 due to unexpectedly low export availability, will manage to hold on to their strength for a little longer. Supply uncertainties will persist in 2006, and only in 2007 will the sugar market deficit disappear and prices begin to turn down.

In contrast to beverages and sugar, the oilseeds market remains heavily oversupplied. Certain oilseed prices have been revised up following solid demand growth and lower-than-expected crops-but this will not stop the overall oilseeds index from declining by at least 10% in 2005. Large carry-over stocks will continue to depress prices in 2006 and 2007. Large exportable surpluses are also keeping grain prices low. Following good harvests, the grains index will fall by over 4% in 2005. The lower prices will lead to a reduction in planted areas, dampening supply growth next season. As stock levels decline, the resulting tightening of grain markets will support prices steadily upwards; the grain price index will rise by 3% in 2006 and 4% in 2007.

The Economist Intelligence Unit's overall World Commodities Forecast (WCF) index is expected to rise by 2% in 2005, the weak FFB index being more than offset by the rising industrial raw materials (IRM) index, where tight markets are pushing up prices-particularly of metals. The IRM index will gradually decline in 2006 and 2007 as markets move into surplus, dragging the WCF index down with it. Hard commodities (other than crude oil) account for about 44% of the WCF index.

Price forecast summary
(US$ index; 1990=100; % change year on year)
Index %
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
WCF 94.5 107.3 109.4 104.1 99.7 9.1 13.5 1.9 -4.8 -4.2
FFB 102.0 110.8 109.7 105.7 105.0 6.6 8.6 -1.0 -3.6 -0.7
Beverages 95.4 102.3 121.5 105.1 95.4 3.5 7.2 18.8 -13.5 -9.2
Grains 105.0 111.5 106.7 109.7 114.2 1.7 6.2 -4.4 2.8 4.2
Oilseeds 109.6 124.8 111.9 103.1 101.3 17.9 13.8 -10.3 -7.9 -1.8
Sugar 56.6 57.1 76.4 85.7 78.2 3.0 1.0 33.7 12.1 -8.7
Note. WCF (World commodity forecasts) is an index of 24 hard and soft commodities. FFB (Food, feedstuffs and beverages) is a price index of 15 soft commodities. The beverages sector has a weight of 20.1% in the FFB index, grains 46.4%, oilseeds 28.6% and sugar 4.9%. The FFB index has a weight of 55.6% in the WCF index.
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

For specific commodities, the Economist Intelligence Unit's current forecasts are summarised as follows:

Summary: We see a mixed outlook for soft commodities. Over the short term, crop short-falls and low stocks will push coffee, cocoa and sugar prices firmly upwards, while large availabilities will push the oilseeds and grain markets down. From 2006/07 tighter markets will support grain prices, but beverage prices will plunge as markets become oversupplied; large stocks will keep the remaining markets under pressure.

Cocoa: Good growing conditions throughout West Africa and no serious concerns about crops elsewhere point to a big rise in 2005/06 world production. Over the longer term, as expansion remains the order of the day in many cocoa-producing countries, downward pressure on cocoa prices will increase.

Coffee: In spite of the current rally in price, the outlook has turned more bearish in anticipation of a return to global over-supply. Assuming no adverse weather among major producers-especially Brazil and Vietnam-downward pressure on prices will increase.

Grains: Poor-quality wheat crops in some exporting countries will not prevent world import demand being met in 2005/06-06/07. The unexpectedly big US maize crop will ensure that rising domestic export needs will be comfortably met for a further year, but a much tighter market situation is foreseen by 2007/08. Rice export availabilities in 2006 will be enough to cover the lower import demand but low stocks will support prices in 2007. North Africa's barley import needs may increase in 2005/06 but EU stocks will build up.

Oilseeds: Over the next two years, supply of vegetable oils will be more than enough to meet demand. Sunflowerseed and rapeseed production estimates have been raised, offsetting the lower expected output of soybeans. The high price of crude oil continues to stimulate the fuel use of vegetable oil, reducing the global surplus. Poor growing conditions in the southern hemisphere could easily turn a surplus into a deficit, to which prices would respond rapidly.

Sugar: World stocks will drop over the next two or three years as consumption continues to outstrip production. Reforms to the EU sugar regime, plus rising demand for cane for ethanol production and speculation, will support prices.

Tea: The chronic market surplus is forecast to continue throughout 2006 and 2007, and prices will maintain a gentle downward slide.

Economist Intelligence Unit commodity price forecasts
Commodity price forecasts - food feedstuffs and beverages
price % change
Commodity unit 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007
Cocoa US cents/lb 70.2 69.6 61.6 55.3 -10.9 -0.9 -11.5 -10.3
Arabica coffee US cents/lb 80.5 112.7 89.5 76.8 25.4 40.0 -20.6 -14.2
Robusta coffee US cents/lb 36.0 49.6 43.4 40.3 -2.6 37.8 -12.6 -7.2
Teaa US$/kg 1.67 1.62 1.60 1.59 9.9 -3.1 -1.4 -0.5
Sugar US cents/lb 7.17 9.59 10.75 9.81 1.0 33.7 12.1 -8.7
Wheat US$/tonne 160.8 161.0 163.8 170.0 7.0 0.2 1.7 3.8
Maize US$/tonne 112.0 97.3 102.5 107.5 4.7 -13.1 5.3 4.9
Barley US$/tonne 142.3 130.8 132.5 143.8 11.8 -8.1 1.3 8.5
Sorghum US$/tonne 117.8 100.8 106.3 117.5 2.6 -14.4 5.5 10.6
Rice US$/tonne 244.8 291.3 285.0 297.5 21.8 19.0 -2.1 4.4
Soybeans US$/tonne 301.5 264.0 235.0 249.3 17.0 -12.4 -11.0 6.1
Soybean oil US$/tonne 615.8 532.5 494.5 457.3 10.6 -13.5 -7.1 -7.5
Palm oil US$/tonne 471.3 407.3 362.0 318.8 6.3 -13.6 -11.1 -11.9
Sunflower oil US$/tonne 684.3 676.5 604.5 582.5 15.3 -1.1 -10.6 -3.6
Rapeseed oil US$/tonne 685.3 643.8 611.0 591.5 14.3 -6.1 -5.1 -3.2
Soybean meal US$/tonne 259.5 238.5 237.3 230.5 15.6 -8.1 -0.5 -2.8
a Good Medium quality.
Source: EIU World commodity forecasts: Food, feedstuffs & beverages

World commodity forecasts: food, feedstuffs and beverages November 2005
Also just published: World commodity forecasts: industrial raw materials October 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For further information please contact:
Economist Intelligence Unit

Sheila Allen +44 (0)20 7830 1010 or sheilaallen@eiu.com
Kona Haque +44 (0)20 7830 1284 or KonaHaque@eiu.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
About the Economist Intelligence Unit
The Economist Intelligence Unit is the world leader in global business intelligence. It is the business–to–business arm of The Economist Group, which publishes The Economist newspaper.

The Economist Intelligence Unit provides geopolitical, economic and business analysis on more than 200 countries, as well as strategic intelligence on key industries and management practices. With over 300 full–time professionals in 40 offices around the world, supported by a global network of more than 700 contributing analysts, the Economist Intelligence Unit is widely known for its unparalleled coverage of major and emerging markets. More information about the Economist Intelligence Unit can be found on the Web at www.eiu.com.

17-11-2005, 13:31	#266
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	Ich habe einmal die Original-Pressemitteilung recherchiert, zu der ich meine obigen Anmerkungen schrieb. Da steht die Einheit: US cents/lb Oben hatte ich €-cent gerechnet, weil der 1. Artikel keine Einheit nannte. Pfund in Dollar: ca. 1,72 $ für ein £ sterling. 854 £ sterling/tonne steht heute der Jul '06-Kontrakt in London. das sind dann umgerechnet 0,666 $/pound = 66,6 US-cent/pound. Der aktuelle Dec '05-Kontrakt steht bei 807 £ sterling/tonne, das sind umgerechnet 62,96 US-cent/pound . Die EIU hat für 2005: 69,6 2006: 61,6 2007: 55,3 angegeben. Der Unterschied vom heutigen Ist-Kurs zum 2006-Schätzkurs beträgt also gerade mal 2,2%. Erst für den 2007-Schätzwert beträgt der entsprechende Gradient 12,2% vom heutigen Ist-Kurs aus betrachtet. Umgerechnet in £ sterling/tonne zum heutigen Wechselkurs würde ein Preisabfall von 12,2% bis 2007 einen Preis von 708,5 bedeuten, gemessen auf der Skala des Dez. 05-Kontaktes . Der Unterschied zwischen der EIU-Prognose für 2007 (55,3 US-cent/pound ) und dem aktuellen Future-Preis für 2007 (Sep '07 Future steht bei 930 £ sterling/tonne = 72,6 US-cent/pound ) als Marktkonsens ist enorm! ---------------------------------------------- 07 Nov 2005 http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?layou...77&ref=pr_list Emergence of market surpluses provides bearish undertone to soft commodities, says the Economist Intelligence Unit Unlike the previous two years, when there was a synchronised increase in soft commodity prices, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a more varied picture over the next couple of years. Rising prices across the agricultural markets pushed the food, feedstuffs and beverages (FFB) index up by almost 9% in 2004. In 2005, however, we see weakness in the grain and oilseed markets offsetting strength in beverages and sugar-with the result that the FFB index will be marginally lower than in 2004. In 2006, a tighter grains market will be unable to offset bearish trends in many of the other commodities, and the FFB index will drop by nearly 4%. We project a further fall in 2007 (albeit by less than 1%), as market surpluses start developing in the beverage, oilseed, and also sugar markets. Crop shortfalls for coffee and cocoa have resulted in much tighter market conditions this season and the beverages price index is set to rise by 19% in 2005. However, compared with three months ago the medium term outlook has turned slightly more bearish, with recent crop reports suggesting an improvement in Brazil and Vietnam's coffee output. As the beverage supply-side recovers in 2006, most of this year's price gains will be wiped out. The decline will continue into 2007 as production eventually overtakes demand. Sugar prices, which have been rising sharply in 2005 due to unexpectedly low export availability, will manage to hold on to their strength for a little longer. Supply uncertainties will persist in 2006, and only in 2007 will the sugar market deficit disappear and prices begin to turn down. In contrast to beverages and sugar, the oilseeds market remains heavily oversupplied. Certain oilseed prices have been revised up following solid demand growth and lower-than-expected crops-but this will not stop the overall oilseeds index from declining by at least 10% in 2005. Large carry-over stocks will continue to depress prices in 2006 and 2007. Large exportable surpluses are also keeping grain prices low. Following good harvests, the grains index will fall by over 4% in 2005. The lower prices will lead to a reduction in planted areas, dampening supply growth next season. As stock levels decline, the resulting tightening of grain markets will support prices steadily upwards; the grain price index will rise by 3% in 2006 and 4% in 2007. The Economist Intelligence Unit's overall World Commodities Forecast (WCF) index is expected to rise by 2% in 2005, the weak FFB index being more than offset by the rising industrial raw materials (IRM) index, where tight markets are pushing up prices-particularly of metals. The IRM index will gradually decline in 2006 and 2007 as markets move into surplus, dragging the WCF index down with it. Hard commodities (other than crude oil) account for about 44% of the WCF index. Price forecast summary (US$ index; 1990=100; % change year on year) Index % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 WCF 94.5 107.3 109.4 104.1 99.7 9.1 13.5 1.9 -4.8 -4.2 FFB 102.0 110.8 109.7 105.7 105.0 6.6 8.6 -1.0 -3.6 -0.7 Beverages 95.4 102.3 121.5 105.1 95.4 3.5 7.2 18.8 -13.5 -9.2 Grains 105.0 111.5 106.7 109.7 114.2 1.7 6.2 -4.4 2.8 4.2 Oilseeds 109.6 124.8 111.9 103.1 101.3 17.9 13.8 -10.3 -7.9 -1.8 Sugar 56.6 57.1 76.4 85.7 78.2 3.0 1.0 33.7 12.1 -8.7 Note. WCF (World commodity forecasts) is an index of 24 hard and soft commodities. FFB (Food, feedstuffs and beverages) is a price index of 15 soft commodities. The beverages sector has a weight of 20.1% in the FFB index, grains 46.4%, oilseeds 28.6% and sugar 4.9%. The FFB index has a weight of 55.6% in the WCF index. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. For specific commodities, the Economist Intelligence Unit's current forecasts are summarised as follows: Summary: We see a mixed outlook for soft commodities. Over the short term, crop short-falls and low stocks will push coffee, cocoa and sugar prices firmly upwards, while large availabilities will push the oilseeds and grain markets down. From 2006/07 tighter markets will support grain prices, but beverage prices will plunge as markets become oversupplied; large stocks will keep the remaining markets under pressure. Cocoa: Good growing conditions throughout West Africa and no serious concerns about crops elsewhere point to a big rise in 2005/06 world production. Over the longer term, as expansion remains the order of the day in many cocoa-producing countries, downward pressure on cocoa prices will increase. Coffee: In spite of the current rally in price, the outlook has turned more bearish in anticipation of a return to global over-supply. Assuming no adverse weather among major producers-especially Brazil and Vietnam-downward pressure on prices will increase. Grains: Poor-quality wheat crops in some exporting countries will not prevent world import demand being met in 2005/06-06/07. The unexpectedly big US maize crop will ensure that rising domestic export needs will be comfortably met for a further year, but a much tighter market situation is foreseen by 2007/08. Rice export availabilities in 2006 will be enough to cover the lower import demand but low stocks will support prices in 2007. North Africa's barley import needs may increase in 2005/06 but EU stocks will build up. Oilseeds: Over the next two years, supply of vegetable oils will be more than enough to meet demand. Sunflowerseed and rapeseed production estimates have been raised, offsetting the lower expected output of soybeans. The high price of crude oil continues to stimulate the fuel use of vegetable oil, reducing the global surplus. Poor growing conditions in the southern hemisphere could easily turn a surplus into a deficit, to which prices would respond rapidly. Sugar: World stocks will drop over the next two or three years as consumption continues to outstrip production. Reforms to the EU sugar regime, plus rising demand for cane for ethanol production and speculation, will support prices. Tea: The chronic market surplus is forecast to continue throughout 2006 and 2007, and prices will maintain a gentle downward slide. Economist Intelligence Unit commodity price forecasts Commodity price forecasts - food feedstuffs and beverages price % change Commodity unit 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Cocoa US cents/lb 70.2 69.6 61.6 55.3 -10.9 -0.9 -11.5 -10.3 Arabica coffee US cents/lb 80.5 112.7 89.5 76.8 25.4 40.0 -20.6 -14.2 Robusta coffee US cents/lb 36.0 49.6 43.4 40.3 -2.6 37.8 -12.6 -7.2 Teaa US$/kg 1.67 1.62 1.60 1.59 9.9 -3.1 -1.4 -0.5 Sugar US cents/lb 7.17 9.59 10.75 9.81 1.0 33.7 12.1 -8.7 Wheat US$/tonne 160.8 161.0 163.8 170.0 7.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 Maize US$/tonne 112.0 97.3 102.5 107.5 4.7 -13.1 5.3 4.9 Barley US$/tonne 142.3 130.8 132.5 143.8 11.8 -8.1 1.3 8.5 Sorghum US$/tonne 117.8 100.8 106.3 117.5 2.6 -14.4 5.5 10.6 Rice US$/tonne 244.8 291.3 285.0 297.5 21.8 19.0 -2.1 4.4 Soybeans US$/tonne 301.5 264.0 235.0 249.3 17.0 -12.4 -11.0 6.1 Soybean oil US$/tonne 615.8 532.5 494.5 457.3 10.6 -13.5 -7.1 -7.5 Palm oil US$/tonne 471.3 407.3 362.0 318.8 6.3 -13.6 -11.1 -11.9 Sunflower oil US$/tonne 684.3 676.5 604.5 582.5 15.3 -1.1 -10.6 -3.6 Rapeseed oil US$/tonne 685.3 643.8 611.0 591.5 14.3 -6.1 -5.1 -3.2 Soybean meal US$/tonne 259.5 238.5 237.3 230.5 15.6 -8.1 -0.5 -2.8 a Good Medium quality. Source: EIU World commodity forecasts: Food, feedstuffs & beverages World commodity forecasts: food, feedstuffs and beverages November 2005 Also just published: World commodity forecasts: industrial raw materials October 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For further information please contact: Economist Intelligence Unit Sheila Allen +44 (0)20 7830 1010 or sheilaallen@eiu.com Kona Haque +44 (0)20 7830 1284 or KonaHaque@eiu.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- About the Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is the world leader in global business intelligence. It is the business–to–business arm of The Economist Group, which publishes The Economist newspaper. The Economist Intelligence Unit provides geopolitical, economic and business analysis on more than 200 countries, as well as strategic intelligence on key industries and management practices. With over 300 full–time professionals in 40 offices around the world, supported by a global network of more than 700 contributing analysts, the Economist Intelligence Unit is widely known for its unparalleled coverage of major and emerging markets. More information about the Economist Intelligence Unit can be found on the Web at www.eiu.com. Geändert von Benjamin (17-11-2005 um 15:04 Uhr)