[Benjamin]

In 2040 werden wir in Deutschland wohl eine durchschnittliche Temperaturerhöhung erleben in Höhe von +1,7 bis + 1,8 Grad Celsius (relativ zu den Jahren vor 1930 ohne relevanten Öl- und Kohleverbrauch).

Beide Zitate stammen aus letztgenannter Quelle:

Abstract
In the last two decades Europe experienced a series of high‐impact heat extremes. We here assess observed trends in temperature extremes at ECA&D stations in Europe. We demonstrate that on average across Europe the number of days with extreme heat and heat stress has more than tripled and hot extremes have warmed by 2.3 °C from 1950–2018.
Over Central Europe, the warming exceeds the corresponding summer mean warming by 50%.
Days with extreme cold temperatures have decreased by a factor of 2–3 and warmed by more than 3 °C, regionally substantially more than winter mean temperatures. Cold and hot extremes have warmed at about 94% of stations, a climate change signal that cannot be explained by internal variability. The clearest climate change signal can be detected in maximum heat stress. EURO‐CORDEX RCMs broadly capture observed trends but the majority underestimates the warming of hot extremes and overestimates the warming of cold extremes.

We demonstrate that on average across Europe the number of days with extreme heat and heat stress has more than tripled from 1950–2018 from less than 2 days to more than 6 days per year. Changes are consistent across subregions, daytime and nighttime temperatures, and across different percentile thresholds. Likewise, the intensity of daily (TXx) to weekly hot extremes has increased by about 2.3 °C (median across Europe) from 1950–2018.
The median rate of change of 0.33 °C per decade is larger than the global average temperature warming of about 0.2 °C per decade today (Masson‐Delmotte et al., 2018). In CEU, the subregion with the strongest intensification, hot extremes have warmed about 50% more than the corresponding summer mean temperatures while in NEU and MED hot extreme and mean trends are similar.

Quellen:

1. https://www.dwd.de/DE/klimaumwelt/kl...tlas_node.html
2. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-m...e-9/assessment
3. 26.11.2019: Klimabericht der Bundesregierung - Deutschland hat sich bereits um 1,5 Grad erwärmt https://www.manager-magazin.de/polit...a-1298326.html
4. Geophysical Research Letters banner: Research Letter: Detection of a Climate Change Signal in Extreme Heat, Heat Stress, and Cold in Europe From Observations, by Ruth Lorenz Zélie Stalhandske Erich M. Fischer
   First published: 17 July 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082062, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2019GL082062