[Benjamin]

Klar, das kennen wir alle, weil wir alle schon mal etwas viel zu früh erwartet haben.

Bei Amazon gibt es inzwischen 1.336 Bücher zum Thema "Staatsbankrott" Scheinbar werden wir in den Buchhandlungen demnächst Ecken auf Büchertischen sehen zu diesem Thema....

Aber daraus kann man wohl kaum ableiten, dass es "ewig" so weitergeht, dafür ist die Geschwindigkeit dieser unglaublichen "Geldvermehrung" auf Pump da drüben zu schnell. Das läuft doch erkennbar früher oder später aus dem Ruder! Was vermutlich auch Teil der Motivation der Republikaner ist, nun einmal Stop zu rufen.

Habe gerade das hier gelesen, paßt dazu:

It is often difficult to contemporaneously pinpoint when a panic begins. The financial crisis of 2008, for instance, is often dated to the summer of 2007, but it did not result in full-fledged market chaos for more than a year. During that time, many government officials said the situation was under control.

The situation in the United States does carry some of the classic ingredients for flurries of selling, financial historians said. Panics sometimes occur when an asset that is considered perfectly safe comes into question. Other conditions for financial mayhem include excessive speculation in a sort of investment — often one thought to be very safe — and sometimes low interest rates.

Some financial historians also believe the markets have become more panic-prone than they once were, in part because of the mass of cash that has poured in recent decades into short-term investments like money market funds.

The current situation is unusual, though, in an important way, said David A. Moss, an economic policy professor at Harvard Business School. Treasuries, he said, are the typical safe haven during a panic, so people might not run away from them.

Mr. Moss said that the outcome could be that there is a “mad rush” out of Treasuries, or it also might be that “people aren’t sure what to do, so they just stay there.”

Treasuries have been at the center of panics in the United States before, though far earlier in American history. Richard Sylla, a finance professor at the Stern School of Business of New York University who has written about panics, pointed to 1792, when one Treasury trader ran into problems and sent the market into a spiral in which it lost 25 percent of its value.

About 100 years later (1893), Congress had to call an emergency session because the Treasury was running out of gold reserves as foreign investors redeemed dollars for gold, Mr. Sylla said.

“Today we talk about what happens if the Chinese sell all the U.S. securities; in 1893, foreign investors were doing just that,” Mr. Sylla said.

Mr. Sylla’s initial assessment of the current situation was, “They’re playing with fire in Washington, D.C., right now.”

Still, perhaps because no one likes to talk in earnest about possible panics, Mr. Moss, Mr. Sylla and Mr. Flanagan said they did think a deal would be reached in Washington before Aug. 2. That would avoid even a technical default, which is a short-term, nonpermanent default that could occur if the government had to delay some payments temporarily while it wrapped up a budget deal.

Mr. Moss of the Harvard Business School said he did not think that many people were thinking that the nation might enter into an all-out default on its debt and refuse to pay it. But he said a panic could “take on a life of its own” if the Aug. 2 deadline passed, for instance, and if contracts that relied on securities had to be unwound.

When it comes to regular investors, David B. Armstrong, a financial adviser in the Washington area, is not seeing much panic. Of his 125 clients, two called him last week, but none called over the weekend.

“People don’t seem to think that it will end in a default,” said Mr. Armstrong, a managing director of Monument Wealth Management. “Everybody’s talking about it, but no one is panicking about it.”

Quelle: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/25/bu...h.html?_r=1&hp

a technical default, which is a short-term, nonpermanent default that could occur if the government had to delay some payments temporarily while it wrapped up a budget deal.

Das ist ja Verharmlosung pur! Wer so denkt, der weiss nichts über den Verlauf von Exponentialkurven, und das Staatsdefizit ist so einer. Am Ende steht immer ein Crash, weil Bäume nun einmal nicht immer schneller in den Himmel wachsen.