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Benjamin · 17-10-2013, 07:04

Grundsätzliches zum Anlass des Trauerspiels in Washington:

Das politische Trilemma der Weltwirtschaft - und also auch der USA:

- wirtschaftliche Globalisierung,

- politische Demokratie und

- der Nationalstaat

sind nicht miteinander vereinbar. Wir können höchstens zwei gleichzeitig haben.

Die USA opfern derzeit ganz klar die politische Demokratie.

Nicht mehr lange hin und sie werden den Nationalstaat auch verlieren.

Dann ist die wirtschaftliche Globalisierung auch kein Thema mehr...

Dani Rodrik, ein Professor of International Political Economy bei der Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, prägte vor etwa 12 Jahren den Begriff des politischen Trilemmas der Weltwirtschaft in seinem Weblog:

The inescapable trilemma of the world economy http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodri...escapable.html

Geplante Fortsetzung des Trauerspiels in Washington:

The deal will fund the government until January 15 and raise the government borrowing limit until February 7. Both sides also agreed to talks over broad budget issues in an attempt to reach a longer-term deal by December 13.

Marktreaktion: Jubel sieht anders aus! Investors remain concerned over the economic impact of the government shutdown and the possibility of another debt crisis, as the temporary solution does not resolve the underlying budgetary issues dividing Republicans and Democrats.

################################################

6 ways a default could hurt the world
By Maureen Farrell

1. A global stock market crash: Some fear a quick drop of 1,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock markets in Asia and Europe would likely be hit too. No stock market would be insulated.

2. A global recession: economic slowdown, global growth will come to a halt.

3. Money market funds collapse: money market funds may not have enough cash to give money back to all its investors. Investors will race to pull out cash from money market funds. The drop in asset prices from a stock market plunge combined with redemption requests will cause many money market funds to have a funding shortage, which is dangerous for many banks. Cash leaves money market accounts and goes out of the financial system entirely for a period of time.
4. A run on the banks: If money market funds are forced to tell investors they can't take out cash while they rebalance their portfolios, investors will immediately race to get their hands on money from wherever they can find it. Major institutions will be forced to protect what they have on hand and will start hoarding it.

5. Some financial institutions will fail: Only the strongest will survive. The government will only bail out so many institutions. If a U.S. default happens and sets the dominoes we've already described in motion, more institutions will probably fail. Broker-dealers will be in crisis.

6. Lending seizes up: If investors and corporations clamor to redeem cash, banks and other financial institutions will hoard the cash they have and will be wary of lending it out. But after Lehman Brothers collapsed, only U.S. government intervention got banks to start lending again.

Gekürzt wiedergegeben aus dieser Quelle: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/15/inve...omsday/?iid=EL

17-10-2013, 07:04	#7
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	Grundsätzliches zum Anlass des Trauerspiels in Washington: Das politische Trilemma der Weltwirtschaft - und also auch der USA: - wirtschaftliche Globalisierung, - politische Demokratie und - der Nationalstaat sind nicht miteinander vereinbar. Wir können höchstens zwei gleichzeitig haben. Die USA opfern derzeit ganz klar die politische Demokratie. Nicht mehr lange hin und sie werden den Nationalstaat auch verlieren. Dann ist die wirtschaftliche Globalisierung auch kein Thema mehr... Dani Rodrik, ein Professor of International Political Economy bei der Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, prägte vor etwa 12 Jahren den Begriff des politischen Trilemmas der Weltwirtschaft in seinem Weblog: The inescapable trilemma of the world economy http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodri...escapable.html Geplante Fortsetzung des Trauerspiels in Washington: The deal will fund the government until January 15 and raise the government borrowing limit until February 7. Both sides also agreed to talks over broad budget issues in an attempt to reach a longer-term deal by December 13. Marktreaktion: Jubel sieht anders aus! Investors remain concerned over the economic impact of the government shutdown and the possibility of another debt crisis, as the temporary solution does not resolve the underlying budgetary issues dividing Republicans and Democrats. ################################################ 6 ways a default could hurt the world By Maureen Farrell 1. A global stock market crash: Some fear a quick drop of 1,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock markets in Asia and Europe would likely be hit too. No stock market would be insulated. 2. A global recession: economic slowdown, global growth will come to a halt. 3. Money market funds collapse: money market funds may not have enough cash to give money back to all its investors. Investors will race to pull out cash from money market funds. The drop in asset prices from a stock market plunge combined with redemption requests will cause many money market funds to have a funding shortage, which is dangerous for many banks. Cash leaves money market accounts and goes out of the financial system entirely for a period of time. 4. A run on the banks: If money market funds are forced to tell investors they can't take out cash while they rebalance their portfolios, investors will immediately race to get their hands on money from wherever they can find it. Major institutions will be forced to protect what they have on hand and will start hoarding it. 5. Some financial institutions will fail: Only the strongest will survive. The government will only bail out so many institutions. If a U.S. default happens and sets the dominoes we've already described in motion, more institutions will probably fail. Broker-dealers will be in crisis. 6. Lending seizes up: If investors and corporations clamor to redeem cash, banks and other financial institutions will hoard the cash they have and will be wary of lending it out. But after Lehman Brothers collapsed, only U.S. government intervention got banks to start lending again. Gekürzt wiedergegeben aus dieser Quelle: http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/15/inve...omsday/?iid=EL Geändert von Benjamin (19-10-2013 um 22:23 Uhr)