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Benjamin · 12-09-2010, 09:23

Deflation, Reflation and Our Oil Future
Posted By Dave Cohen • on January 29, 2009

Auszug daraus:
"My basic thesis runs as follows: if the United States and the other OECD countries experience a long (2-3 years) period of deflation, global oil demand will plummet and prices will remain low throughout the downturn.

Afterwords, inflation will drive borrowing and spending, so aggregate demand and output will increase during the bounce. Renewed GDP growth will drive up oil demand.

Some years into the recovery, and depending on its strength, oil prices will spike as geological and geopolitical constraints on supply once again come to the fore.

The sooner a recovery begins, the lower demand destruction during the recession will be. Oil prices will thus spike sooner as demand once again bumps against the ceiling on supply, a limit that remains invisible until demand bounces back. It’s all a matter of timing. It’s easy to see that in the more dire economic scenarios, it could be many years before global oil supply problems resurface."

Anderer Auszug daraus:
"…the Ka-Poom model explains how, following the collapse of the credit bubble, the US economy will experience a short (six month to one year) period of deflation that we call disinflation, such as we are experiencing today, followed by a major inflation induced by monetary [via the Federal Reserve] and fiscal [via the Federal Government] policy and the actions of US trade partners in response to that inflation."

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/200...ur-oil-future/
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...r-Eric-Janszen
http://www.sprottmoney.com/news/ask-...-november-2014
https://twitter.com/ejanszen
http://www.itulip.com/

http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm

Chart deckt die Jahre 1970 bis in die Zukunft des Jahres 2016 ab:

12-09-2010, 09:23	#4
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	Deflation, Reflation and Our Oil Future Posted By Dave Cohen • on January 29, 2009 Auszug daraus: "My basic thesis runs as follows: if the United States and the other OECD countries experience a long (2-3 years) period of deflation, global oil demand will plummet and prices will remain low throughout the downturn. Afterwords, inflation will drive borrowing and spending, so aggregate demand and output will increase during the bounce. Renewed GDP growth will drive up oil demand. Some years into the recovery, and depending on its strength, oil prices will spike as geological and geopolitical constraints on supply once again come to the fore. The sooner a recovery begins, the lower demand destruction during the recession will be. Oil prices will thus spike sooner as demand once again bumps against the ceiling on supply, a limit that remains invisible until demand bounces back. It’s all a matter of timing. It’s easy to see that in the more dire economic scenarios, it could be many years before global oil supply problems resurface." Anderer Auszug daraus: "…the Ka-Poom model explains how, following the collapse of the credit bubble, the US economy will experience a short (six month to one year) period of deflation that we call disinflation, such as we are experiencing today, followed by a major inflation induced by monetary [via the Federal Reserve] and fiscal [via the Federal Government] policy and the actions of US trade partners in response to that inflation." http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/200...ur-oil-future/ http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...r-Eric-Janszen http://www.sprottmoney.com/news/ask-...-november-2014 https://twitter.com/ejanszen http://www.itulip.com/ http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm Chart deckt die Jahre 1970 bis in die Zukunft des Jahres 2016 ab: Geändert von Benjamin (14-02-2016 um 21:32 Uhr)