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Benjamin · 21-12-2005, 10:37

Silver to outperform gold, says Barclays

Dec 15

Silver, after reaching a 17-year high this week, will outperform gold next year, based on historical charts of previous rallies in precious metals, Barclays Capital Inc analyst Jordan Kotick said.

Silver may rise 18% from this year’s high to $11 an ounce in 2006 , Mr Kotick said in a December 12 report , the same day prices reached $9.345, the highest since May 1987, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver’s 26% gain this year already has outpaced gold, which jumped about 20% and reached a 24-year high of $544.50 an ounce.

“Silver appears poised to take up the reigns from gold as the next leg of the rally in precious metals unfolds,” Mr Kotick, head of technical analysis at Barclays in New York, said in his report. He analyzed trends since 1980 that showed silver has more room to rise than gold. The metals tend to move in tandem.

Gold, which peaked at $873 an ounce in 1980, is headed toward a critical point in its rally from a 20-year low of $253.20 an ounce in 1999, Mr Kotick said. Silver, which peaked at $41.50 in 1980, still has room to climb, based on the same metrics, he said. Mr Kotick wasn’t available for an interview. “Given that the (gold) market is rapidly approaching the 50% retracement level, this is a warning of profit taking risks ahead ,” Mr Kotick said in his report. “A 38.2% retracement (in silver prices) of the decline off the 1980 high would target $20.50 compared to the level that gold is already testing.”

To calculate a 50% retracement, Mr Kotick said he took the difference between the 1980 high and the 1999 high, divides the figure in half and then adds the result to current prices.

The gains for gold and silver have been spurred by demand from investors for alternatives to US stocks, bonds, and currencies. The Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Commodity Index has risen 21% this past year.

Global demand for silver was 26,023 tonne last year, with 44% of that coming from industrial applications and the rest from photography and jewellery, according to GFMS Ltd, a London-based research group. Gold demand was 3,851 tonne, with jewelry use accounting for 68% of purchases, GFMS said.

Demand for gold coins and bars and bullion-backed shares rose 56% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the World Gold Council has said. Since November 2004, investors have poured $4.1 billion into StreetTracks and another exchange-traded gold fund, the iShares Comex Trust. Gold gained 16% during a five-week rally from November 4 to December 12. “Gold appears stretched on a momentum basis,” Mr Kotick said.

The relative strength index for gold over nine weeks has reached levels that, over the past five years, have triggered a change in the direction of prices, he said.

21-12-2005, 10:37	#96
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	Silver to outperform gold, says Barclays Dec 15 Silver, after reaching a 17-year high this week, will outperform gold next year, based on historical charts of previous rallies in precious metals, Barclays Capital Inc analyst Jordan Kotick said. Silver may rise 18% from this year’s high to $11 an ounce in 2006 , Mr Kotick said in a December 12 report , the same day prices reached $9.345, the highest since May 1987, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver’s 26% gain this year already has outpaced gold, which jumped about 20% and reached a 24-year high of $544.50 an ounce. “Silver appears poised to take up the reigns from gold as the next leg of the rally in precious metals unfolds,” Mr Kotick, head of technical analysis at Barclays in New York, said in his report. He analyzed trends since 1980 that showed silver has more room to rise than gold. The metals tend to move in tandem. Gold, which peaked at $873 an ounce in 1980, is headed toward a critical point in its rally from a 20-year low of $253.20 an ounce in 1999, Mr Kotick said. Silver, which peaked at $41.50 in 1980, still has room to climb, based on the same metrics, he said. Mr Kotick wasn’t available for an interview. “Given that the (gold) market is rapidly approaching the 50% retracement level, this is a warning of profit taking risks ahead ,” Mr Kotick said in his report. “A 38.2% retracement (in silver prices) of the decline off the 1980 high would target $20.50 compared to the level that gold is already testing.” To calculate a 50% retracement, Mr Kotick said he took the difference between the 1980 high and the 1999 high, divides the figure in half and then adds the result to current prices. The gains for gold and silver have been spurred by demand from investors for alternatives to US stocks, bonds, and currencies. The Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Commodity Index has risen 21% this past year. Global demand for silver was 26,023 tonne last year, with 44% of that coming from industrial applications and the rest from photography and jewellery, according to GFMS Ltd, a London-based research group. Gold demand was 3,851 tonne, with jewelry use accounting for 68% of purchases, GFMS said. Demand for gold coins and bars and bullion-backed shares rose 56% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the World Gold Council has said. Since November 2004, investors have poured $4.1 billion into StreetTracks and another exchange-traded gold fund, the iShares Comex Trust. Gold gained 16% during a five-week rally from November 4 to December 12. “Gold appears stretched on a momentum basis,” Mr Kotick said. The relative strength index for gold over nine weeks has reached levels that, over the past five years, have triggered a change in the direction of prices, he said. Geändert von Benjamin (21-12-2005 um 14:58 Uhr)