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Alt 10-04-2017, 07:33   #5
Benjamin
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China Debt Problem Is Massive At $35 Trillion, On Par With Greece
By Mark Melin • on April 8, 2017 , http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/chinese-debt-collapse/

Zitat:
China is the key to the world economy, a Macquarie Research report points out. In fact, it is the only country that can reflate the world economy. With a debt to GDP pegged at near 300%, the report notes that China can do the impossible in part due to their unique economic structure – they don’t have a central bank amid the world where public and private divisions are much less pronounced than in the US. But with growth targets being reigned in, watch for stagflation and even deflation.
Zitat:
China is responsible for 27% of global investment and nearly 66% of global credit creation, and the world is “addicted” to Chinese money. Shvets and Seth think the “key” to the reflation trade is found in China’s stimulus, which drove real estate and industrial development. This, in turn, drove commodity prices significantly higher.

Zitat:
For example, China’s non-financial corporates maintain debt to GDP of ~170% (double levels prevalent in the US), but at least 70% of that debt belongs to SOE sectors. If one then adds 50%-60% debt to GDP that is directly attributable to national and provincial Governments (inclusive of LGF’s, various ministries and bank bail-out bonds) and another 60%+ that belongs to the banking sector, then Government directly or indirectly responsible for around 230-240% debt to GDP (or on par with Greece), with ‘real private sector’ remaining significantly under leveraged.
Zitat:
Watch China to understand the health of the world economy. Macquarie is looking for a stagflationary fear http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/eur...-macro-voices/ to grip over “the next several months,” and then “disinflationhttp://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/chi...-system-crash/ could rear its ugly head again. For an investment outlook, they prefer “local, liquid and low external vulnerability markets.”

Echoing Jim Chanos among others, the report also compares the country to Japan in the 1980s and likens the country to a “squirrel in wheel unable to stop”.
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