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Alt 30-07-2017, 15:26   #51
Benjamin
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Registriert seit: Mar 2004
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The Atlanta Fed’s Deflation Probabilities indicator

Zitat:
This chart is based on data from the Atlanta Fed. It shows the probabilities, as registered over time, that CPI in April 2021 will be below its April 2016 level (which is when this data series begins). This series started out high due to the collapse in oil prices:
Zitat:
The Atlanta Fed’s Deflation Probabilities indicator is based on estimates derived from the markets for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

Zitat:
So there is 0% probability that in April 2021, CPI will be below where it had been in April 2016. At the time, CPI was at 238.9. At the last release, CPI for December was already at 243:


Quelle: Deflation Probability Drops to 0% for Next Five Years, by Wolf Richter, Jan 26, 2017 http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/26/def...xt-five-years/
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2017–22 Deflation Probability Declines—July 27, 2017:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/...abilities.aspx
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Beste Grüße, Benjamin
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