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Benjamin · 17-03-2013, 16:16

Es gibt auch bullische Argumente:

1) Bärisches Sentiment = Kontraindikator?

2) Die Nachfrage steigt:
Volume & value of world coffee exports 2000-2012:

Quelle: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...y-coffee-63000

3) Jahreszeitliche Effekte:

4) Pilz

Hemileia vastatrix, the fungus which causes the disease.
Der Kaffeerost (Hemileia vastatrix) ist ein Rostpilz, der Kaffee-Pflanzen befällt und die gleichnamige Erkrankung auslöst. Dabei handelt es sich um die wirtschaftlich bedeutendste Krankheit dieser Kultur.
Für kleinbäuerliche Betriebe kommt der Biozideinsatz aufgrund der hohen Kosten meist nicht in Frage.
Die Schäden können 30 % bis 80 % der Pflanzen betreffen oder sogar zu kompletten Ernteausfällen führen.
[http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaffeerost
Leaf rust has caused coffee trees to produce fewer and lower-quality beans.

Storm brewing as blight to force up coffee prices

Colm Kelpie– 12 March 2013

CAFFEINE lovers may be faced with a spike in prices for their favourite hot drinks, one of the country's leading coffee distributors has predicted.

A deadly fungus is sweeping across the bean-growing countries of Central America that could significantly hamper production which would have a knock-on effect on supply.

David McKernan, the founder of Java Republic, says retail prices are likely to increase within the next 18 months.

Dutch-owned Rabobank said it expected a 14pc increase for quarterly average prices by the end of the year.

It said the concerns about reduced production in Central America are being countered by the expectations of a large crop this year from Brazil.

But it warned prices will move higher as the frost season in Brazil begins.
http://www.independent.ie/business/w...-29123280.html
#######################################

Coffee growers in Central America are hurting due to the spread of la roya, the deadly leaf rust fungus. The outbreak has yet to affect the arabica market, but it would have grave consequences for the coffee industries in countries including Costa Rica, Guatemala, and El Salvador, which is dominated by small growers.

Authorities in Costa Rica have declared a state of emergency to tackle the spread of the coffee tree fungus. And industry talk cite significant – although yet to be confirmed – losses in Guatemala and El Salvador.

Colombia, a top producer of high quality arabica beans, was hit by la roya five years ago (also ~2007 Preis stieg damals von ~105 Low 2007 auf ~165 Hoch in 2008). With infestation levels reaching about 40 per cent of its trees planted, coffee growers embarked on a large-scale replanting programme of coffee trees.

The federation, with support from the Colombian government, has spent $1.4bn on the programme providing fungus resilient plants, fertiliser, seeds and education. “It was quite an undertaking,” says Mr Samper.

After four years of the conversion programme, half of the trees have been replanted. By 2015, the federation believes it will hit its target of 85-90 per cent.High quality global journalism requires investment.

However, the fall in arabica price is adding to the coffee growers’ woes. Lower revenues will hit Colombia’s ongoing regeneration programme as well as the Central American governments’ fight against the fungus, says Mr Samper.
The fall in the coffee price will make the implementation of similar programmes less affordable.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bcbcf...#axzz2NoYnrWBz

Anacafe: Guatemala 2013-14 Coffee Exports Expected to Fall 40%

An outbreak of coffee-eating fungus in Guatemala is expected to lead to a 40% drop in exports next season, the president of the country's coffee association said Wednesday.

"It's very serious," Nils Leporowski said in a telephone interview.
The region accounts for around 10% of global coffee output and its beans are some of the most sought-after by high-end roasters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...20-712766.html
##########################

...spread of a fungal disease in Central America, which in some countries has already resulted in a state of emergency being declared,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

“Fungal attack is likely to cause production to fall short of expectations further south, too — for instance in Peru.

“What is more, coffee growers in Colombia are on strike: they want a minimum price to be established that will not be subject to events on the global market.”
http://www.gulf-times.com/business/1...erves,-outlook

17-03-2013, 16:16	#194
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	Es gibt auch bullische Argumente: 1) Bärisches Sentiment = Kontraindikator? 2) Die Nachfrage steigt: Volume & value of world coffee exports 2000-2012: Quelle: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...y-coffee-63000 3) Jahreszeitliche Effekte: 4) Pilz Hemileia vastatrix, the fungus which causes the disease. Der Kaffeerost (Hemileia vastatrix) ist ein Rostpilz, der Kaffee-Pflanzen befällt und die gleichnamige Erkrankung auslöst. Dabei handelt es sich um die wirtschaftlich bedeutendste Krankheit dieser Kultur. Für kleinbäuerliche Betriebe kommt der Biozideinsatz aufgrund der hohen Kosten meist nicht in Frage. Die Schäden können 30 % bis 80 % der Pflanzen betreffen oder sogar zu kompletten Ernteausfällen führen. [http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaffeerost Leaf rust has caused coffee trees to produce fewer and lower-quality beans. Storm brewing as blight to force up coffee prices Colm Kelpie– 12 March 2013 CAFFEINE lovers may be faced with a spike in prices for their favourite hot drinks, one of the country's leading coffee distributors has predicted. A deadly fungus is sweeping across the bean-growing countries of Central America that could significantly hamper production which would have a knock-on effect on supply. David McKernan, the founder of Java Republic, says retail prices are likely to increase within the next 18 months. Dutch-owned Rabobank said it expected a 14pc increase for quarterly average prices by the end of the year. It said the concerns about reduced production in Central America are being countered by the expectations of a large crop this year from Brazil. But it warned prices will move higher as the frost season in Brazil begins. http://www.independent.ie/business/w...-29123280.html ####################################### Coffee growers in Central America are hurting due to the spread of la roya, the deadly leaf rust fungus. The outbreak has yet to affect the arabica market, but it would have grave consequences for the coffee industries in countries including Costa Rica, Guatemala, and El Salvador, which is dominated by small growers. Authorities in Costa Rica have declared a state of emergency to tackle the spread of the coffee tree fungus. And industry talk cite significant – although yet to be confirmed – losses in Guatemala and El Salvador. Colombia, a top producer of high quality arabica beans, was hit by la roya five years ago (also ~2007 Preis stieg damals von ~105 Low 2007 auf ~165 Hoch in 2008). With infestation levels reaching about 40 per cent of its trees planted, coffee growers embarked on a large-scale replanting programme of coffee trees. The federation, with support from the Colombian government, has spent $1.4bn on the programme providing fungus resilient plants, fertiliser, seeds and education. “It was quite an undertaking,” says Mr Samper. After four years of the conversion programme, half of the trees have been replanted. By 2015, the federation believes it will hit its target of 85-90 per cent.High quality global journalism requires investment. However, the fall in arabica price is adding to the coffee growers’ woes. Lower revenues will hit Colombia’s ongoing regeneration programme as well as the Central American governments’ fight against the fungus, says Mr Samper. The fall in the coffee price will make the implementation of similar programmes less affordable. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bcbcf...#axzz2NoYnrWBz Anacafe: Guatemala 2013-14 Coffee Exports Expected to Fall 40% An outbreak of coffee-eating fungus in Guatemala is expected to lead to a 40% drop in exports next season, the president of the country's coffee association said Wednesday. "It's very serious," Nils Leporowski said in a telephone interview. The region accounts for around 10% of global coffee output and its beans are some of the most sought-after by high-end roasters. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...20-712766.html ########################## ...spread of a fungal disease in Central America, which in some countries has already resulted in a state of emergency being declared,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “Fungal attack is likely to cause production to fall short of expectations further south, too — for instance in Peru. “What is more, coffee growers in Colombia are on strike: they want a minimum price to be established that will not be subject to events on the global market.” http://www.gulf-times.com/business/1...erves,-outlook Geändert von Benjamin (28-03-2013 um 21:36 Uhr)