Cocoa Has Biggest Gain in 5 Years on Supply Threat (Update1)
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) --
Cocoa prices in London had the biggest intra-day gain in more than five years on concern looting and violence in Ivory Coast will escalate, threatening to disrupt supplies from the world's biggest cocoa producer.
Anti-French demonstrators attacked homes, businesses and schools in the main port city of Abidjan, after France retaliated against air strikes by government forces on Nov. 6 that left nine soldiers and an American civilian dead.
Bombings last week violated a 2003 cease-fire agreement in the former French colony. The West African nation of 17.3 million people, divided since a failed coup two years ago, produces about 40 percent of the world's cocoa and is in the middle of its annual harvest.
``We have got a situation of extreme uncertainty'' in Ivory Coast, said Gary Mize, chief operating officer of Hong Kong-based Noble Group Ltd., which ships cocoa from Ivory Coast and other countries. ``Any price rise that's reflective of the uncertainty is warranted at this point.''
Cocoa for December delivery rose as much as 106 pounds, or 12 percent, to 1,019 pounds a ton -- the biggest intra-day gain since June 3, 1999. They traded at a three-month high of 1,001 pounds at 10:03 a.m. on the London International Financial Futures Exchange.
Prices have risen 30 percent from a 32-month low of 810 pounds reached on July 2 .
Cocoa prices in London surged 9.6 percent last week, the biggest weekly gain for a most-active contract since January, after Ivorian government forces on Nov. 4 bombed Bouake, stronghold of the Forces Nouvelles, the leading rebel group, and helicopters attacked the rebel-held town of Korhogo.
Mize said Noble was able to accept deliveries of cocoa beans on Nov. 6 at its port terminals in Abidjan and San Pedro, on the Gulf of Guinea.
`Turmoil'
``Hopefully, with some measure of luck and good management, we will be able to continue operations despite the turmoil,'' he said in a phone interview. ``We had a similarly tense situation two years ago that we were able to get through without any major catastrophe.''
The so-called Linas-Marcoussis agreement in January 2003 suspended hostilities in a civil war that has left hundreds of people dead and displaced 1 million since September 2002. Muslim rebels in the north and west battled forces loyal to Gbagbo, a Christian they accused of discriminating against them, in the south.
The United Nations last year sent 6,200 peacekeeping troops to Ivory Coast to monitor the Linas-Marcoussis agreement. The rebels have refused to disarm until reforms promised in the cease- fire are enacted.
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Als ich vorhin einmal mein Zerti checkte konnte ich es kaum glauben: Mehr als verdoppelt in nur ein paar Tagen.
Die Umstände dazu sind natürlich schlimm.
Im Radio hörte ich heute morgen einige Details dazu. Fazit, dass dieser Unsicherheitszustnd wohl noch eine ganze Weile andauern wird. Über die Erntefähigkeiten wurde natürlich nichts berichtet.
Aber wovon sollen die Leute dort denn Leben, wenn sie ihre Plantagen offenbar nicht oder nur eingeschränkt bewirtschaften können???
Der Kakaopreis ist in so einer unquantifizierbaren Situation natürlich zu Übertreibungen geneigt, siehe Beispiel Orangensaft nach den Hurrikanes (zuletzt mit Shorts das gute Geld zu machen gewesen!). Also: Stop Loss einrichten/nachziehen, um die Gewinne zu sichern. Was derartig schnell nach oben schießt, das kommt auch wieder - mindestens ein gutes Stück - herrunter.