Societal collapse:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse
The Evolution of Complexity in Human Societies:
http://baobab2050.org/2010/09/13/the...man-societies/
Peak oil:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Als Buch:
The Collapse of Complex Societies:
http://www.amazon.de/Collapse-Comple...6117407&sr=1-1
Eingescanned von Google:
http://books.google.de/books?id=YdW5...page&q&f=false
Als ppt-Vortrag:
Collapse of Complex Societies by Dr. Joseph Tainter (1 of 7):
http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.com/20...f-complex.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48&feature
COMPLEXITY, PROBLEM SOLVING, AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES
http://dieoff.org/page134.htm
Ähnlich und gut hier:
http://upi-yptk.ac.id/Ekonomi/Tainter_Social.pdf
Joseph A Tainter. Population and Environment. New York: Sep 2000.Vol.22, Iss. 1; pg. 3
http://songlight-for-dawn.blogspot.c...-collapse.html
Essay: Social complexity and sustainability
Joseph A. Tainter
http://www.scribd.com/doc/31144234/J...Sustainability
Joseph Tainter, for instance, has provided a detailed analysis of how the western and eastern Roman empires responded very differently to similar EROI crises. In the case of
Byzantium, Tainter argues, the empire’s leaders undertook
a very deliberate process of institutional reform and simplification (of everything from political administration to military structure) that brought energy demands into closer alignment with energy supply. Tainter claims that this shift explains the eastern empire’s extraordinary longevity. He also suggests that the process Byzantium went through has been extremely rare historically; most civilizations don’t have the foresight, competence, and political capacity to undertake such a change.
------------------------
An illuminating collapse was that of the Western Roman Empire in the Fifth century A.D. The Romans found conquest highly profitable at first, as they seized the accumulated wealth of the Mediterranean lands. But for a one-time infusion of wealth, Rome took on responsibilities to administer and defend the empire. These responsibilities lasted centuries, and had to be paid from yearly agricultural production.
When there were extraordinary expenses, usually during wars, the government often found itself short of money. The usual strategy was to stretch the currency by adding copper. This was inflationary, and by the middle of the Third century A.D., the empire was bankrupt. The government would not even accept its own coins for payment of taxes.
In the half century from 235 to 284, the empire nearly came to an end. There were foreign and civil wars, almost without interruption. Cities were sacked and provinces devastated. In the late Third and early Fourth centuries A.D., the emperors Diocletian and Constantine responded by designing a government that was larger, more complex, more highly organized, and much more costly. They doubled the size of the army at great expense. To pay for this, peasants were taxed so heavily that they abandoned lands and could not replenish the population.
In the late Fourth century, the Barbarians forced their way into the Western empire. They overthrew the last Emperor in Italy in 476 A.D.
I call this
'the Roman model' of problem solving. The Romans responded to challenges by increasing the size and complexity of their government and army, at great expense. Fiscal weakness, and exploitation of the population undermined the effort, and made collapse inevitable.
The Eastern Roman Empire survived the Fifth century crisis. We know it today as the Byzantine Empire. It was constantly at war, and in the early Seventh century, a twenty six year war with Persia left both sides exhausted. Arab armies seized the wealthiest parts of the Byzantine realm, and destroyed the Persian Empire entirely.
Soon the Arabs were attacking Constantinople itself, the Byzantine capital. Yet
the Byzantines made a remarkable recovery. - They settled their professional army of farmlands across the Empire. Soldiers now provided most of their own sustenance, and the government paid them a much lower salary.
- Byzantine government and society simplified also. Cities contracted to fortified hill-tops.
- The economy became organized around self-sufficient manors.
- Literacy declined.
The simplification rejuvenated Byzantium, which not only halted the Arab advance, but eventually doubled the size of the Empire. Unlike the Romans, who met challenges by increasing the complexity and costliness, the Byzantines show us what may be
history's only example of a large complex society systematically simplifying. I label this
'the Byzantine model.'"
[end quote from Professor Joseph Tainter, University of Utah.]
Ähnlich auch in diesem Video auf eine Zuhörerfrage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub1DY-VRh4A&NR=1
Hier im Kapitel "The early Byzantine recovery":
http://upi-yptk.ac.id/Ekonomi/Tainter_Social.pdf
systematic simplification.
Around 659
military pay was cut in half again. The
government had lost so much revenue that even at onefourth
the previous rate it could not pay its troops. The
solution was for
the army to support itself. Soldiers were given
grants of land on condition of hereditary military service. The
Byzantine
fiscal administration was correspondingly simplified.The transformation ramified throughout Byzantine society.
Both central and provincial government were simplified, and
the costs of government were reduced. - Provincial civil administration was merged into the military.
- Cities across Anatolia contracted to fortified hilltops.
- The economy developed into its medieval form, organized around self-sufficient manors.
- There was little education beyond basic literacy and numeracy, and literature itself consisted of little more than lives of saints.
The period is sometimes called
the Byzantine
Dark Age.
The simplification rejuvenated Byzantium. The peasantsoldiers
became producers rather than consumers of the
empire’s wealth. By lowering the cost of military defense the
Byzantines secured a better return on their most important
investment. Fighting as they were for their own lands and
families, soldiers performed better.
During the eighth century the empire re-established
control of Greece and the southern Balkans. In the tenth
century the Byzantines reconquered parts of coastal Syria.
Overall after 840 the size of the empire was nearly doubled.
The process culminated in the early eleventh century, when
Basil II conquered the Bulgars and extended the empire’s
boundaries again to the Danube. The Byzantines went from
near disintegration to being the premier power in Europe and
the Near East, an accomplishment won by decreasing the
complexity and costliness of problem solving (Treadgold, 1988,
1995, 1997; Haldon, 1990; Harl, 1996).
------------------------------------------
Der Kollaps:
In the century before the victory of 718 the political and economic life of the eastern Mediterranean had been utterly transformed. The huge empire that the Romans had assembled was almost gone. Debasements and inflation had ruined monetary standards and the fiscal and economic institutions which depended on them. There were no longer standard weights to copper coins and monetary exchange was undermined. Around 659 Constans cut military pay in half again. With army pay by the 660s cut to one-fourth its level of 615, the government no longer pumped coins into the economy. By 700 most people within or formerly within the empire no longer used coins in everyday transactions. In most Mediterranean lands the economy ceased to have a monetary basis. The economy developed into its medieval form, organized around self-sufficient manors (Harl, 1996).
One can scarcely imagine the magnitude of the transformation required to save what was left of Byzantium. A way of life to which the peoples of the eastern Mediterranean had been accustomed for over a millennium had to be given up.
Der alte Weg ging nicht mehr, man mußte einen anderen weg gehen - oder untergehen:
the emperors of the late third and early fourth centuries had responded to a similar crisis by complexification. They increased the complexity of administration, the regimentation of the population, and the size of the army. This was paid for by levels of taxation so harmful that lands were abandoned and peasants could not replenish the population. Constans II and his successors could hardly impose more of the same exploitation on the depleted population of the shrunken empire. Instead they adopted a strategy that is truly rare in the history of complex societies: simplification.
Der Weg der Vereinfachung:
- a way for the army to support itself. He lacked ready cash but the imperial family had vast estates - perhaps one-fifth of the land in the empire. There was also much land abandoned from the Persian attacks. Such lands were divided among the troops. In Asia Minor and other parts of the empire, divisions of troops - called themes - were settled in new military zones. Soldiers (and later sailors) were given grants of land on condition of hereditary military service. It was apparently at this time that Constans halved military pay, for he now expected the troops to provide their own livelihood through farming (with a small monetary supplement).
- Correspondingly the Byzantine fiscal administration was greatly simplified.
- The transformation ramified throughout Byzantine society, as any fundamental economic change must. Both central and provincial government were simplified, and the transaction costs of government were reduced.
- In the provinces, the civil administration was merged into the military.
- Cities across Anatolia contracted to fortified hilltops.
- Aristocratic life focused on the imperial court.
- There was little education beyond basic literacy and numeracy, and literature itself consisted of little more than lives of saints
- (Haldon, 1990; Treadgold, 1988, 1995, 1997). The period is sometimes called the Byzantine Dark Age.
The results of the simplification were evident almost immediately.
The system of themes rejuvenated Byzantium. A class of peasant-soldiers was formed across the empire. The new farmer-soldiers had obligations to no landowners, only to the state. They became producers rather than consumers of the empire's wealth. They formed a new type of army in which military obligation, and the lands that went with it, were passed to the eldest son. From this new class of farmers came the force that sustained the empire. By lowering the cost of military defense the Byzantines secured a better return on their most important investment.
Die folgenden Probleme kommen bereits seit einigen Jahren gleichzeitig auf uns zu und werden sich alle gleichzeitig innerhalb der kommenden Jahre verstärken:
(
inexorable: unerbittlich, unaufhaltsam, kompromisslos, erbarmungslos, nicht aufzuhalten)
