Hi Omi
Jo, in der Tat.
Long zu spielen ist mir zu riskant geworden.
Habe das für meinen Long-Zock beiseite gelegte Geld nun verwendet für Put-Positionen (Langläufer) in 2 US-amerikanische Retailer. Die sollten morgen an sich eins auf die Mütze bekommen....
Für die Englisch-Unkundigen: Retailer = Einzelhändler, hier erweitert verwendet für "Konsumgüterbereich"
Selbst wenn nicht: Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, wann der US-Konsument einknickt - und die Retailer-Charts in den USA damit ebenfalls, teilweise sind sie das ja schon.
Leider gibt es nur zu den ganz großen Retailer-Exemplaren dieser Spezies in D dazu auch Puts/Shorts. Die haben allerdings meist auch internationale Anteile und verwaschen so den US-Anteil etwas. Aber sei es drum. Die Financials sind mir schon zu weit unten für Neuengagements, die lass ich nur noch weiter laufen...
Bin damit wieder 100% Bär. Falls das für manche eine Kontraindikation ist: Viel Spaß bei den Longs!
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06.11.2007 16:22
Morgan Stanley cuts retailers to cautious, sees lower 2008 margins
NEW YORK (Thomson Financial) - Morgan Stanley (Nachrichten) lowered its industry view of retailers to cautious from in-line, a downgrade aimed mainly at softline and hardline retailers, on expectations of lower margins in 2008 at a time when the Federal Reserve is unlikely to keep loosening monetary policy.
The research firm lowered its investment opinions of
Nordstrom Inc., Bed Bath&Beyond and Whole Foods Market and said they are likely to be affected by a drop in discretionary spending. At the same time,
Morgan Stanley lowered price targets on 10 retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
'Retail is down 11% year-to-date and we arent throwing fuel on the recessionary fire: 07/08 looks to us like the new 89/90, and Street EPS (estimates) remain too high,' wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Gregory Melich in a research note Tuesday.
Melich
expects 60% of major retailers to post lower margins in 2008 with EPS growth of 9% versus Wall Street's 14% mean estimate. He expects 2008 sales growth of 2.5%, down from 4% in 2007.
Moreover, without a recession, the Fed is unlikely to cut key interest rates further. Cuts would have boosted retailer's stock prices during the slow-growth period, Melich said, adding that the credit bubble makes any buyouts difficult.
Morgan Stanley remains cautious on apparel brands and continues to favor discounters, which it kept at in-line. The shop kept food and drug retailers at attractive.
Morgan Stanley's more cautious view on discretionary consumer spending prompted it to downgrade Nordstrom
and Whole Foods shares to underweight from equal-weight and Bed Bath&Beyond's rating to equal-weight from overweight.
The shop said Nordstrom's 24% plunge since mid-October still doesn't discount the weak consumer, greater inventory risks and deteriorating returns and operating margins. Morgan Stanley set a $29 price target on Nordstrom and cut its fiscal 2008 earnings estimate to $2.68 a share, below Wall Street's view of $3.19. The stock was trading at $34.39, down 6 cents.
Melich cited Bed Bath&Beyond's exposure to the home-related consumer amid headwinds from the housing market slump. He expects shares to suffer without a near-term catalyst and said Wall Street's estimates are 8% to 9% too high. The stock was trading at $31.06, down 1.7%.
Likewise, he considers the mean analyst estimate too high for Whole Foods at 14% versus his own 9% view, saying it is more susceptible to a consumer downturn given its heavy exposure to California. Melich set a $39 price target on the health food company's shares. The stock traded at $49.44, down 2.1%.
Other retailers' price targets went under Morgan Stanley's knife as
Wal-Mart was cut to $51 from $54,
Target Corp. was lowered to $67 from $70,
J.C. Penney Corp. was slashed to $67 from $81, and
Lowe's Cos. was cut to $30 from $36.
Shares of
Wal-Mart recently traded at $44.21, up 18 cents. Target's shares were up 28 cents at $58.19 and Lowe's was down 30 cents at $24.83. J.C. Penney's stock edged up slightly to $51.91.
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Von denen gibt's nur für Wal-Mart etwas mit Hebel.
Anderes mit Hebel wäre z. B. Home Depot, Procter & Gamble.
Morgen am Freitag: 16:00 - ! US Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan November
Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen Zahlen zum Index der Verbraucherstimmung der Universtät Michigan ("Michigan University Consumer Sentiment") für November 2007
Erwartet wird der vorläufige Verbraucherstimmungsindex aus den USA für November im Bereich von 80,0. Im Vormonat hatte der Index noch bei 80,9 notiert.
Allerdings nur als Abschluss einer bedeutenden Welle im daily Chart; natürlich nicht beim Öl insgesamt. Es sollte nun eine mehrtägige Korrektur eintreten, mehr bedeutet das Muster vermutlich nicht.
