Natural Gas

[Benjamin]

August-Future 2006: http://www.futuresource.com/charts/c...W&b=CANDLE&st=

[Benjamin]

Das mit den Support-Linien ist so eine Sache, wenn man sich die einzelnen Futures ansieht:

[Benjamin]

Das MArkt preis künftigdeutlich steigende Gaspreise ein. Nur wie soll man die Charttechnik anwenden, wenn sich die einzelnen Future-Kontrakte so deutlich unterscheiden und die Zertifikate-Emittentenbanken die Dinger ja etwa monatlich bei Ihren Produkten wechseln?

[tina]

nun, die erhöhung ist in etwa immer 0,1 %, stimmts?
ich denk, das ist verkraftbar,
insbesondere wenn man vorhat, nicht für alle ewigkeiten
im gas investiert zu sein.

was hälst du von der aktie, benjamin?

887333 South Western Energy

gefällt mir ganz gut, aber erst nach einem kursrückgang.
vielleicht im sommer?

[Benjamin]

Hi
zu der Aktie: Wenn, dann würde ich jetzt sofort rein bis round about knapp 50$, evtl. mehr. Wo genau das Top ist, hängt davon ab, wie sehr sich die begonnene finale Welle 5 noch aufdehnt; dass weiß nur der liebe Gott.

Wenn das Teil erst anfängt zu korrigieren muss wohl mindestens 1 Jahr gewartet werden, bis der Spuk vorbei ist. Für long-Investoren (Positionstrder) dann uninteressant.

Hier in $ und in log. Skal:

------------------------------------

Zu den Natural Gas Futures von oben:
Es ging mir nicht um die Preissteigerungen von Future zu Future, damitkannman leichtleben.

Es ging mir um die unterschiedliche Kurvenform des Charts jeweils. Das Phänomen "Erdgas" ist dann insgesamt charttechnisch kaum zu packen, wenn man nur den Future um einen Monat zu wechseln braucht, um ein anderes Bild zu erhalten. Was gilt dann? Steigt oder fällt Erdgas dann?

Es gibt doch 2 prinzipielle Möglichkeiten: Entweder die einzelnen Future-Monate sind alle einzigartige Anlageuniversen, oder sie sind nur eines von mehreren Teilen, die erst in der Gesamtanalyse aller Future-Monate ein Bild ergeben. Ein Anleger, der nur einen Future-Monat betrachtet, würde damit dann riskieren, einen Fehler zu machen.

Entweder: ABN Amro nutzt z. Z. den März-Future. Soll man dann also sich nur den anschauen - und sich auf dessen Chartbild verlassen - , bis wieder Future-Wechselzeit bei den entsprechenden Zertifikaten ist? Man würde dann so tun, als ob jeder Future eine eigene WKN hätte mit ihrem jeweils ganz individuellen Wellenmustern. Dass das dann auch "Natural Gas" heißt wäre im Grunde eher zufällig, weil man ein ganz eigenständiges, unabhängiges Anlageobjekt vor sich hätte.

Oder hängt die Anlegergemeinde da draußen tatsächlich an den Chartbildern von allen Future-Monaten und die Stimmung zu Erdgas bildet sich also tatsächlich erst aus der Summe aller Chartbilder aus allen verfügbaren Future-Monaten?

Für mich sind Wellenmuster sehr wichtig in der Analyse. Wie bildet man sich dann also eine Meinung zu "Natural Gas"? Wenn der eine Future bald über 60% korrigiert und der andere fast keine Korrektur zeigt? Sehr verwirrend!

Wer kann hier helfen?

[Benjamin]

Meine Vermutung, die letzte Abwärtswelle würde als Ending Diagonal Triangle daherkommen, hat sich - mit ziemlicher Sicherheit - bestätigt. Tiefstkurs für Long-Einstieg demnach voraussichtlich diesen Freitag, so wie im von mir gezeichneten 10-Tages-Chart dargestellt. Nur der Zielkurs muss leicht nach unten verändert werden.

Falls die Umsätze bei den Long-Zertifikaten ein Indikator sind für die Umsätze beiden "richtigen" Futures, dann tauchen bei den jetzt auftauchenden Peaks nach unten potente Käufer auf, die mit großen Umsätzen zulangen (Umsätze zu Briefkursen, nicht Geldkursen). Das stützt ebenfalls meine Erwartung, dass der Boden wohl zeitlich sehr nahe ist. Die völlig überverkaufte Indikatorenlage tut da ein übriges.

Die 8,50$ sind allerdings leicht im März-Future unterboten worden. Horizontalunterstützungen gelten bei diesen Futures offenbar nur wenig, wie ein Backtest sehr schnell offenbart: Da wurde z. T. nicht einmal kurz Halt gemacht.

Der vorsichtige Anleger plaziert Stop-Buy-Kaufaufträge für Hebel-Longs. Bottom-Fishing ist riskant. Bin im Moment im Zielkonflikt zwischen Vertrauen in meine Elliott-Zählkünste einerseits und der simplen Vorsicht andererseits, dass man Bottom-Fishing vor dem Wendepunkt nicht machen sollte. Denn im Grunde gibt es genug zu verdienen, nachdem der Wendepunkt offensichtlich da war: Auf ein paar Pünktchen kommt es da im Grunde nicht an.

[Benjamin]

Long!
Hebelloses Zerti bei ABN Amro:

[tina]

moin, bzw. guten abend

schade, daß auf beitrag nr. 20 keiner eine antwort hatte.
hätte mich auch interessiert.

nun, freitag war bzw. montag ist kontrakt-verfallstermin auf nat.gas.
ich hoffe, daß sich der kurs anschl. wieder nach norden bewegt

http://www.eltee.de/verfallstage.php

[Benjamin]

Nach meiner derzeitigen Variantenübersicht kommt Mitte bis Ende Februar 2006 erst der Boden.

Der 20.01. (und eben nicht der 18.01.) war das Zwischentop. Bei den Zerti-Charts kommt das nicht raus, weil deren Kurs in € angegeben wird (der Future aber in $). Am 20.01. hatten wir einen starken Anstieg von EUR/USD, was den Zertikurs gedrückt hat (weil der $-Wert des Underlyings mathematisch durch den EUR/USD-Kurs geteilt werden muss, um den Zertipreis zu erhalten). So wurde das echte Top maskiert und kleiner als die vorherige Spitzeam 18.01.
Die Charttechnik bezieht sich hier aber zwingend nur auf den $-Chart, weil das Gas für den US-Markt bestimmt ist und dort die relevanten Marktteilnehmer sitzen.

[Benjamin]

Sunday, May 7, 2006
Natural gas falls far short of power imagined

By Jeff Donn
The Associated Press

On the brink of the 21st century, a group of energy experts peered into the future of natural gas. What they saw was quite rosy, and quite wrong.

To satisfy growing demand, producers could crank out a third more natural gas over the next decade at "competitive prices." It could "power our economy" for decades beyond. Or so said the National Petroleum Council in its 1999 report.

But natural-gas prices soon headed skyward, with those charged by producers spiking late last year at nearly five times 1999 levels.

This past winter, though starting off warm, saw the average gas-heating household spend a record $867, a 17 percent increase, according to federal data. As for that predicted robust supply, the country's annual gas output has strangely slipped by 3 percent over the past six years.

Something is broken in the economics of natural gas, say industry insiders and observers. The bright dream of an economy built squarely on clean-burning natural gas is slowly deflating. Although the U.S. still derives almost a quarter of the country's energy from natural gas, the amount will slip in coming decades, federal forecasters now say.

"What's going on now is so dysfunctional, it is really remarkable," says industry consultant Jim Choukas-Bradley.

Retired Yale economist Paul MacAvoy says price jerks and fuel crimps could soon rival California's electricity nightmare of 2000-2001.

"Everything that has gone wrong in electric power is going to go wrong with natural gas, unless we do something," he says. "It's just a few miles down the road."

What's so wrong with natural gas?

The industry largely blames old fields and self-defeating government policy, and such explanations are widely accepted. The trouble is, they don't explain the breakdown very well.

Skeptics are beginning to suspect other powerful forces, ones at work within the industry itself.

Some consumers simply look to their gut and blame the industry.

After 26 years, retirees Anna and Frank Siracusa are selling their nine-room, gas-heated home in Methuen, Mass., for something smaller.

At age 72, they're tired of turning down the thermostat and piling on sweaters each winter.

"Someone is ripping us off," grumbles Anna Siracusa.

The level of discontent even makes the industry nervous.

Tired of criticism

"We're good corporate citizens. We'd like to have prices at a level where people and congressmen are not screaming all the time," says R. Skip Horvath, president of the National Gas Supply Association.

Industry leaders say they're trying to fix things, but declining gas fields and harder-to-reach new ones are limiting output.

"You've got to drill more wells, you've got to run faster, just to replace what has declined," says Bobby Shackouls, CEO of producer Burlington Resources and past chairman of the Petroleum Council.

While government policy turned less-polluting natural gas into the fuel of choice for new electric plants in the late 1990s, federal rules kept drillers away from vast stretches of public land, the industry complains. Then came last year's hurricanes.

However, most drilling restrictions were imposed years ago and added no new impediments to output during the price run-up, say federal energy officials. And the hurricanes only added the latest insult to a market with much bigger, older injuries.

Also, other trends should have cooled off prices. Yes, gas-fired generators did use almost 1 trillion more cubic feet of natural gas last year than in 1999.

But at the same time, factories cut back, using almost 1.5 trillion less, federal data show.

The country is not running out either. There's enough natural gas to last beyond 65 years — longer than oil, according to some forecasts.

Despite the federal barriers to drilling, the amount of economical, ready-to-capture gas — under existing wells within reach of pipelines — rose 15 percent during the four years ending in 2004, according to the latest federal data.

The American Gas Association, a group of utilities, has made a preliminary estimate of another 4 percent rise last year.

"There's a lot of natural gas in the world ," says Jerry Langdon, an executive at producer and marketer Reliant Energy.

Why, then, isn't it reaching users?

Despite their protests, maybe some producers aren't really trying, industry critics suspect. Many producers are the same companies benefiting from rocketing gasoline prices in recent years — familiar petroleum names like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and BP.

"As soon as companies that control the resource figure out how to keep prices high, they'll do it, and I believe that's what were seeing in gas," says Ezra Hausman, analyst for Synapse Energy Economics in Cambridge, Mass.

Some Midwestern cities are accusing producers of doing it by collusion.

In an antitrust lawsuit, they suggest producers have reached either a secret agreement or tacit understanding to bottle up production.

"I think the increase in prices is a designed thing," says Charles Wheatley, a lawyer for the 18 communities from Texas to Indiana suing five leading gas producers in federal court.

They haven't found a smoking gun. Yet some industry executives acknowledge in interviews that, during their 1999 sessions, members of the Petroleum Council talked privately of a supply-and-price crunch in the near future — purportedly as a result of external factors.

Why, then, didn't they warn people? Former council leaders indicated they wanted to keep pressure on demand.

"We needed to give comfort to our customers that gas was going to be available," says Joe Foster, a retired gas executive who was council chairman in 1999.

Shackouls, his successor, puts it this way: "We were doing it to grease our own wheels."

In the end, the council issued its reassuring report, and demand stayed strong.

Since the 1990s, the marketplace itself has increasingly set producer and pipeline prices under pressure from new hordes of traders, many betting on the future prices of natural gas.

In theory, traders would enable better deals through the magic wand of competition. And the theory seemed sound in the first years of market pricing, when supplies were robust.

During the production-pricing bind, though, something else appears to have happened.

Conditioned by an irrepressible string of price increases, futures traders — who contract for future gas deliveries at fixed prices — tend to settle at even higher fixed prices, many analysts believe.

Since the market uses these fixed prices as a reference point for its day-to-day prices, overestimates by traders can turn into self-fulfilling prophesies.

"One thing that's out there that I think is a bit of a negative is traders love volatility," says Reliant Energy's Langdon, who once worked for a predecessor to disgraced energy trader Enron.

Middleman role

Middleman traders — also children of deregulation — now sell much of the gas, taking their cut without producing or transporting it. They were supposed to bring better deals to buyers, but not everyone's sure they do — even setting aside market manipulations blamed on traders like Enron in recent years.

"I sometimes wonder if these are the prices that would really be arrived at, if the user of the gas was dealing with the producer of the gas," says Foster, the former Petroleum Council chairman.

Others harbor deeper doubts. Is real competition possible, they wonder, for a product that buyers absolutely need?

They're not like shoppers, after all, who can simply shift to a cheaper product on the store shelf.

"I think it is very difficult, if not impossible, to foster truly competitive markets when you're dealing with energy," says Tyson Slocum, a consumer advocate at Public Citizen.

[tina]

fast alle k o - zertis sind ausgeknockt inzwischen,
seit der zeit beginnt das henry-gas wieder langsam zu steigen.
komsicher zufall

eine neue sicht-weise fürs gas hab ich bei einem bloomberg-
sprecher gehört vorgestern:

gas wird benutzt, um die klimaanlagen in betrieb zu nehmen in usa, deshalb sei der gas-preis tendenziell gegen sommer sogar höher.

[Benjamin]

Hi Tina,
auf der vorherigen Seite ganz oben steht ein saisonaler Chart; demnach Ende Feb./Anfang März Kaufzeit, im Okt. Verkaufszeit.

Diese Longs gibt's nach meiner Kenntnis:
http://www1.abnamrozertifikate.de/sh...tKursAenderung

NYMEX Natural Gas Henry Hub MINI Long
NL0000187508 / ABN36D
Stop Loss Marke 5,45
Hebel 2,75
Aktueller Future Juli 06



NYMEX Natural Gas Henry Hub MINI Long
NL0000161396 / ABN3XV
Stop Loss Marke 6,36
Hebel 3,88




NYMEX Natural Gas Henry Hub Future Open End Zertifikat
NL0000447332 / ABN4L1
Ohne Hebel, bzw. Hebel 1

[Benjamin]

[tina]

goldman sachs hat auch div. im programm,

z.b. GS0CCE open end nymex henry hub
-auch ohne hebel, bwz. 1:1-

[Benjamin]

US EIA sees 2006 natural gas demand falling below 2005 level
9May2006

Total US gas consumption this year is expected to fall below last year's
level by 1.1% before rebounding in 2007 by 3.4%, the US Energy Information
Administration said Tuesday. Adjusting its month-ago demand estimates
slightly, the agency in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook put the 2006 and
2007 gas demand targets at 21.72 Tcf and 22.46 Tcf, respectively.

"With weak electric heating load due to the warm January and much weaker
expected cooling load this summer compared to 2005, the consumption of natural
gas for generation of electricity is expected to fall by 2.8% in 2006, then
increase by 2.3% in 2007," the report said. Also, because of an exceptionally
warm January this year, residential consumption is projected to fall by 5.1%
from 2005 levels and then increase by 6.5% in 2007, the agency said.

Recovery in natural gas-intensive industrial output following the 2005
hurricanes "will likely contribute to growth in industrial gas consumption
this year (3.5%) and in 2007 (2.3%)."

EIA reported that domestic dry natural gas production in 2005 declined by
2.8%, "largely in response to hurricane-induced infrastructure disruptions in
the Gulf of Mexico." Production is expected to increase by 0.8% this year and
1.6% in 2007. Finally, total liquefied natural gas imports are expected to
increase from their 2005 level of 630 Bcf to 740 Bcf in 2006 and 970 Bcf in
2007 as new infrastructure come online.
-----------------------------------------------------------

09.05.2006
CIBC World Markets report predicts natural gas prices will rise along with summer temperatures in North America

Consumers who benefited from cheaper home heating costs this past winter due to record warm temperatures are likely to need those savings to pay their electricity bills this summer, states a new report from CIBC World Markets.

CIBC World Markets' Monthly Indicators report released today predicts that natural gas prices will rebound as the summer heats up and demand for electricity to fuel air conditioners rises.

"While record warm temperatures this past winter put money back in Canadians' pockets we are likely to put it all back into our air conditioners this summer," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and Chief Strategist, CIBC World Markets.

The report discusses the impact of climate change on natural gas prices, given that natural gas is now the fastest-growing and most dominant source of growth in electric power generation. The warmest winter on record in North America in 2005/06 saw Henry Hub natural gas prices plummet by 40 per cent, into the range of $7.00 to $8.00/mbtu.

For roughly 80 per cent of the world's population living in the northern hemisphere, 2005 was the hottest year since temperatures were first recorded in 1880. As well, the global average surface temperature in 2005 reached a record high. Re-analysis of satellite observations of temperature trends in the troposphere indicates that air temperatures have been warming about 15 per cent faster than was previously thought.

"While there continues to be a debate about causation, there is no longer any doubt that the climate is changing, and changing rapidly," notes Rubin. "Another hot summer in 2006 will likely set a new record for both home cooling days and 'scorchers' - or days in the U.S. when maximum temperatures are way above normal," says Rubin. "We expect that this will push North American electrical demand to new record highs this summer, and in the process pull natural gas prices up to $10/mbtu."

Total electricity demand per American household rose 25 per cent between 1992 and 2005 - boosted notably by a 45 per cent increase in energy consumption for air conditioning. The commercial sector is currently consuming 66 per cent more electricity than in 1992, largely due to a dazzling 95 per cent increase in energy usage for air conditioning.

Over the last thirty years, the share of American households with air conditioning has doubled. Among the almost 80 per cent of American households that have air conditioning, two-thirds own the much more energy consuming central air-cooling systems. These air conditioning systems are working increasingly harder due to rising summer temperatures and the rapid growth in the average home size, which is now 40 per cent larger than in the 1970s.

The complete CIBC World Markets Monthly Indicators report is available at http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_...d/mimay06.pdf.