Krugman (versteht hier niemand)

[Benjamin]

BBC-Interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6X-ackGZqQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDvoJTePYZs

Wiki: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman

Blog:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

Kritiker:
http://www.amazon.de/product-reviews...owViewpoints=0

Der Japan-Vergleich ist leider nicht theoretisch unterfüttert sondern nur "empirisch", schwache (leicht hinterfragbare) Argumentation:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven..._b_786198.html
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=14133

Krugman is one of the most influential economists in the country right now and ... he just doesn't get it.: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5464

Austerity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austerity

Bottom line: Whether it’s Roubini or Roach, Kudlow or Krugman, you can’t trust the predictions of any economist. Ever. Best warning: That famous BusinessWeek editorial several years ago headlined: “What Do You Call an Economist with a Prediction? Wrong.” Unfortunately, we live in a world of capitalists who thrive on the great Myth of Perpetual Growth, endless growth, ad infinitum, forever, till the end of time. http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012...-growth-myth/2

Paul B. Farrell, Oct. 16, 2012
Doomsday Cycle targets America next
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doo...6?pagenumber=1

Freud: Let's set aside the academic hedging and get to the bottom line: What must economists do to avoid being 'so wrong' again and missing the next meltdown?

Krugman: Actually there's already a fairly well developed example of the kind of economics I have in mind: the school of thought known as behavioral finance. They emphasize two things. First, many real-world investors bear little resemblance to the cool calculators of efficient-market theory: they're all too subject to herd behavior, to bouts of irrational exuberance and unwarranted panic. Second, even those who try to base their decisions on cool calculation often find that they can't, that problems of trust, credibility and limited collateral force them to run with the herd.http://articles.marketwatch.com/2009...ts-addiction/3

[Benjamin]

So what is going on? The main answer is that this is what happens when you have a “deleveraging shock,” in which everyone is trying to pay down debt at the same time. Household borrowing has plunged; businesses are sitting on cash because there’s no reason to expand capacity when the sales aren’t there; and the result is that investors are all dressed up with nowhere to go, or rather no place to put their money. So they’re buying government debt, even at very low returns, for lack of alternatives. Moreover, by making money available so cheaply, they are in effect begging governments to issue more debt.

And governments should be granting their wish, not obsessing over short-term deficits.

Obligatory caveat: yes, we have a long-run budget problem, and we should be taking steps to address that problem, mainly by reining in health care costs. But it’s simply crazy to be laying off schoolteachers and canceling infrastructure projects at a time when investors are offering zero- or negative-interest financing.


Also, was ist los? Die wichtigste Antwort ist: Wir sehen dass, was passiert, wenn wir einen "Deleveraging Schock" haben, in dem jeder versucht, seine Schulden zur gleichen Zeit abzuzahlen. Die Kreditaufnahme der privaten Haushalte ist abgestürzt:

Unternehmen sitzen auf Cash, weil es keinen Grund gibt, die Kapazitäten zu erweitern, wenn die Verkäufe nicht da sind. Das Ergebnis ist, dass die Anleger alle schön investitionsbereit dastehen, aber nirgendwo hingehen können bzw. keinen Ort finden, um ihr Geld zu investieren. Also kaufen sie Staatsanleihen, auch bei sehr niedrigen Renditen, aus Mangel an Alternativen. Darüber hinaus, indem sie Geld so billig zur Verfügung stellen, bitten sie gleichsam die Regierungen um mehr Schuldenmachen. Chart unten: Rendite der 10-jährigen US-Notes:



US-Staatsanleihen mit 10 Jahren Laufzeit (Realrendite), Graph: Prof. Brad DeLong

Die Regierungen sollten ihnen den Wunsch erfüllen und nicht besessen sein von den kurzfristigen Defiziten.

Obligatorische Einschränkung: Ja, wir haben eine langfristige Budget Problem, und wir sollten Schritte unternehmen, um dieses Problem anzugehen, vor allem durch Zügeln der Kosten im Gesundheitswesen. Aber es ist einfach verrückt, Lehrer zu entlassen und Infrastrukturprojekte zu streichen zu einem Zeitpunkt, wenn die Investoren Finanzierung sogar zu Null-oder negativen Renditen anbieten.
Quelle:
By PAUL KRUGMAN, Published: July 26, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/op...hing.html?_r=0
Der untere Chart ist von mir eingefügt worden.

[Benjamin]

Dealing With Default
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: October 10, 2013 , http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/11/op...ault.html?_r=0