Alt 02-03-2006, 21:17   #31
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Alt 04-03-2006, 12:18   #32
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Alt 06-03-2006, 23:59   #33
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Thumbs down

ABN Amro bescheißt bei den Kursen der eigenen Produkte - ist mein klarer Eindruck. Wenn nette Limit-Plazierungen anliegen, wird schon mal ein kurzer Spike "produziert", um die Limits auszulösen - und damit den Umsatz der eigenen Produkte. Erkennbar am Spike der ABN-Produkte am letzten Freitag, die dort höher lagen als das Tagestop am vorherigen Donnerstag. Schaut man sich den Future an, ist von solchen Spikes nichts zu sehen. Das bedeutet: Entweder man wechselt die Emittenten-Bank, oder man baut eine "ABN-Grapsch-Sicherheitszone" ein zwischen dem tatsächlichen Kurs (abgeleitet vom Future) und dem Kurs, den man tatsächlich als Limit an der Börse plaziert.

Mir ist dieses rufschädigende Verhalten von ABN Amro als Emittentenbank völlig unverständlich. Ich finde es indiskutabel - und schwer enttäuschend. Werde mich hier einmal nach anderen Emittentenbanken umsehen, denn so eine Sauerei finde ich völlig unakzeptabel.
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Alt 08-03-2006, 16:12   #34
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EIA Lowers Natural Gas Demand And Price Forecasts For 06
03-07-06


The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its expectations for both natural gas supply and prices for 2006 in its short-term energy outlook released Tuesday.

The agency said it expected the benchmark U.S. natural gas price at the Henry Hub to average $8.11 per thousand cubic feet in 2006 , down from its projection a month earlier of $8.74/mcf. Futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange have been falling over this period and settled at a nine month low Monday of $ 6.547 per million British thermal units, off nearly 60% from their December peak.

The EIA lowered its estimate of how much gas was produced in 2005 and now says it dropped by 3.2%, revised up from its earlier estimate of a 2.7% drop. For 2006 it sees output growth of 2.2% , down from its earlier estimate of 3.0%.

"Recovery in natural gas-intensive industrial output following the 2005 hurricanes is expected to contribute to growth in industrial gas demand this year (4.3%) and in 2007 (1.5%)," the agency wrote in its report.

The EIA's demand estimate for the fourth quarter of 2005 was cut by 1.5% and the forecast for the first quarter of 2006 was cut by 1.2%, owing mainly to mild winter weather. This year saw the mildest January for the contiguous U.S. states since reliable records have been kept.

The agency said that the average U.S. winter natural gas heating bill will be $126 or 17% higher than for the previous season. A month earlier, the agency had estimated that it would be $178 or 24% higher.

Liquefied natural gas imports are projected to increase from their 2005 level of 630 bcf to 830 bcf in 2006. LNG imports in 2007 are expected to reach 1,030 bcf. By 2007, this would equal 4.7% of total U.S. gas supply, up from 2.9% last year.
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Alt 21-03-2006, 17:59   #35
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March 11, 2006
Off the Charts
The Future of Natural Gas Pricing Could Be a Trans-Atlantic Tug of War

By FLOYD NORRIS

JUST when natural gas prices seemed likely to hit the moon this winter, much of the United States had the warmest January in history. With gas inventories high, prices plunged. Natural gas is now unusually cheap relative to oil.

United States natural gas is also cheap relative to gas in Britain, and traders think that pattern will persist into next winter — notwithstanding the fact that the weather is notoriously hard to predict.

Wild swings in natural gas prices have long been a part of the commodities market. Unlike oil, gas was impossible to ship outside of pipelines. So a surplus of gas in the United States would drive prices down, perhaps at the same time they were soaring in Britain because of a cold spell.

But that is starting to change, as the volume of liquefied natural gas transported by ship grows . Those ships can turn around if one market will pay much more than another for gas.

"Once it gets really cold, you have both sides of the Atlantic bidding for the same gas," said Francisco Blanch, a commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch in London. "This winter we had a very cold period in November and December, and there was a lot of competition" among Britain, Spain and the United States.

The chart to the right shows just how cheap gas is now, compared with oil . Oil prices are recalculated to reflect the ratio of 5.8 barrels of oil equaling 1 million British thermal units, or B.T.U.'s.

In December, when fears were highest, United States natural gas cost $4.80 per million B.T.U.'s more than crude oil . Only once since gas futures began trading in 1990 had gas cost so much more than oil. That was during a similar brief period in December 2000.

But by Monday of this week, the relationship had flipped, and crude oil cost $4.21 per million B.T.U.'s more than gas, the biggest margin since fall 1990.

In normal times, oil has cost a little more than gas — an average of 77 cents during the last decade — because there are power plants that can switch from gas to cheaper refined oil products if prices call for that. Gas is cleaner, and is preferred if it is economical.

At the moment, as can be seen from the other charts with this story, a United States natural gas future for delivery in February costs $10.48 per million B.T.U.'s, but a British future for the same time costs the equivalent of $14.99 per million B.T.U.'s. "If U.K. to U.S. price differentials remain this large," said Mr. Blanch of Merrill Lynch, "then very little gas will head to North America next winter." As more liquefied natural gas supplies become available, and as ports are outfitted to receive such supplies, such a disparity will become more and more unlikely. Whether it can endure for next winter will be seen over the next few months. Any trader who thought it was going to narrow could use futures or options to place that bet now.

But as the last three months have proved, natural gas prices can be extraordinarily volatile, creating big gains or losses within days.
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Alt 01-04-2006, 09:36   #36
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Habe in Beitrag Nr. 4 dieses Threads eine neue Chartanalyse gepostet, die mir persönlich ganz gut gefällt. Wen es interesseirt, hier der Link: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...143#post228143
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Alt 17-05-2006, 14:01   #37
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Mit den neuen NYMEX Natural Gas Henry Hub Call
Optionsscheinen von Abn Amro kann man ganz gut auf die Flat-Variante im Dezember-2006-Future spekulieren. Dort wurde demnach der Boden entweder gerade eben erreicht oder er kommt kurzfristig (wenige Tage). ABN sieht das offenbar ebenso, denn auf einen Schlag hat ABN Amro 10-Calloptionsscheine emittiert. Details: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...934#post227934

Unterscheidungskriterium zwischen Flat und Dreieck:
Steigt der Dezember-Future über 10,85$ (rote 4), ohne vorher ein tieferes Low als die rote 5 gemacht zu haben, dann läuft die Flat-Variante. Der Future: http://www.futuresource.com/charts/c...H&b=CANDLE&st=

Falls es tatsächlich die Flat-Variante wird, dann sollten wir einen sehr kräftigen Anstieg sehen, da die c-Welle des Flats in diesem Falle verkürzt ist, was eine sehr dynamische Gegenbewegung - hier nach oben - ankündigt.

Unten der Dezember-Future, die Basis für jene Call-Optionsscheine von ABN-Amro, die im November fällig werden, damit ABN sie noch rechtzeitig verscheuern kann. Die Idee ist ganz gut: Der Kunde umgeht so diese (bei langfristig steigenden Kursen: teuren) Future-Umschichtungen, bei denen die Anzahl der Kontrakte bei jeder Umschichtung immer geringer wird, weil der Einkaufspreis der jeweils neuen Futures höher liegt als der Verkaufspreis der alten Futures.

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Alt 18-05-2006, 18:46   #38
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NYMEX forward spreads at extraordinary levels as hedge funds increase stakes
05/05/06


Driven by fear that the US gas production could see a repeat of last year's hot summer and vicious hurricane season, spreads between summer- and winter-month contracts on the NYMEX are now "so large you can drive a tractor trailer through it," according to one analyst.

"Part of it goes to the reality that it is never about current fundamentals and supplies," Enerjay Principal Jay Levine said. "It's about the future, and the market is putting much greater emphasis on the back than the front because of the existing [storage] fundamentals. The unknown is next year."

On Wednesday, the spread between the June and December contracts on the NYMEX sat at over $4/MMBtu, with the spread between June and January nearing $5/MMBtu.

"I've never seen that before,"
said Kent Bayazitoglu, market analyst for Houston-based Gelber & Associates, adding that typically the spreads between the May through August contracts and the winter months is about $1/MMBtu. "In the last two years, [the spreads have] been up to $1.50[/MMBtu], which was considered to be awfully high. This winter, it has just blown away to $3[/MMBtu] to $4[/MMBtu] spreads, which is unheard of."

Bayazitoglu pointed to two factors in the market pushing the spreads. "The market believes demand is going to come back ... but not right away, so they are selling the short-term, not the long-term. A lot of people are betting on the spreads."

The resulting contango , where longer-term futures contracts carry a higher price than the front months, encourages utilities and marketers to add to storage inventory.

A spread of "$4.70[/MMBtu for the summer/winter] is way above the cost of storage," Ed Kennedy, market analyst and broker for Commercial Brokerage, said. "It's going to pay [utilities] to lock in storage and sell January and February. It's riskless - guaranteed. Even if the market goes lower, what do they care? It's a godsend for utilities."

On the other side are speculators who want to be "short in the front, but they are leery of being naked shorts," Kennedy said, referring to a speculator who shorts a stock or commodity he or she cannot deliver. "So they are selling June, July and buying October, November to protect it. There's a lot of it going on."

John Olson, chief market strategist for Sanders Morris Harris Group, said speculation by hedge funds into energy futures has pushed the contango to new highs.

"There are now $60 billion in energy commodity hedge funds, and they are doing their level best to arbitrage crude and natural gas prices regardless of whether the real cash market is far away or close to the NYMEX," Olson said.

But that strategy could backfire. With gas storage 699 Bcf higher than the five-year average as of the week ended April 28, if the nation does not get a hot summer to siphon off some gas, storage injections will slow from 9.5 Bcf/d to between 6 Bcf/d to 6.5 Bcf/d, forcing more gas onto the market by August or September, Olson said. "If we have a return to gas-on-gas competition, you are likely to see [cash] prices come down from a national average of $6.10/MMBtu to something in the high $4/MMBtu to $5/MMBtu range," he said.

The back end of the board is "very susceptible to [a] considerable decline should events not transpire the way the market is anticipating," Levine said
. However, he said it is not a secret that the vast majority of those who speculate in natural gas lose money because few speculators are prepared for the volatility in the natural gas market. "There are fewer people making money [in commodities] and more losing," he said. "It's not equal."
---------------------------------------

Ergänzung von mir: So sieht das praktisch aus: Juli- und Dezember-Future im Vergleich:

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Alt 05-08-2006, 16:51   #39
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IMO gute Long-Chance!
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Alt 22-12-2006, 23:07   #40
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hi benjamin,

what about a update? please?
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Alt 02-02-2007, 16:19   #41
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Hi tina,
hatte hier schon lange nicht mehr reingeschaut. Update ist nicht ganz einfach. Also, mein Fazit lautet:
Leichte Mehrheit für noch einmal runter, so für 2 Monate (grobe Peilung), dann wäre erst das Low da.

Grund: Die Wellen rauf seit Ende Dezember sehen mir korrektiv aus, für eine längere Rally sollten sie aber impulsiv sein.

Das widerspricht aber etwas dem Bild beim Rohöl, wo ich die letzte mehrtägige Aufwärtsbewegung impulsiv zähle. Natural Gas und Rohöl sollten ganz grob in etwa ähnliches Verhalten im Chartbild zeigen. Vermutlich war mein Eindruck beim Rohöl falsch (?).

Falls das doch impulsiv war, dann sollte nach einer nur mäßigen Korrektur nach unten danach dann tüchtig nach oben gehen.
Falls meine Einschätzung von oben sich aber bestätigen sollte, dann sehen wir noch einmal so ein zähes Gedaddel abwärts - evtl. sogar bis in den April. Scheußlich!

Grüße
Benjamin

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Alt 21-02-2007, 16:38   #42
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Energiepreisentwicklung in Deutschland
Quelle: http://www.ennovatis.de/


Quelle: http://staticweb.egl.ch/eglgb/2005/d...ngeu_pop1.html

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Alt 21-02-2007, 16:53   #43
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Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_ic...rket_de_de.pdf
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Alt 21-02-2007, 17:07   #44
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Quelle: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/por...ct_code=ER02C1
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Alt 13-09-2007, 12:53   #45
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EIA: US Natural Gas Demand To Rise 4.5% in 2007,
Less In '89

11. Sept. 07


U.S. demand for natural gas is expected to jump 4.5% this year, due to increases in residential, commercial and power-sector consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted Tuesday.


If the prediction holds true, it would be the largest yearly jump in U.S. gas demand over the last 11 years , according to data in the EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The last big yearly jump in gas demand was in 2000, when gas demand rose 3.9% over the previous year.

By contrast, 2006 U.S. gas demand was 1.9% below the previous year, according to the data. The EIA predicts nationwide gas demand will rise only 0.3% in 2008.

The agency predicts that U.S. gas stocks will remain above their corresponding five-year average through December 2008, with a larger surplus seen this December, compared to December 2008. The U.S. has about 3.005 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage as of Aug. 31, 10.4% above the five-year average.

Spot natural gas prices for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub averaged $6.37 a thousand cubic feet in August, about the same as July, the EIA reported. The agency predicts the average Henry Hub spot price will reach a winter peak of $9.01/mcf in January, following a year in which prices are expected to average about $7.31/mcf. The EIA predicts Henry Hub spot prices will average about $8.07/mcf in 2008.

Gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is likely to drop by 4.3% in 2007, then jump 7.1% in 2008 with the start-up of new deepwater production facilities, the EIA predicts. Onshore gas production in the lower 48 states is seen rising 1.7% this year, led by strong growth in the second quarter, with an additional 0.3% increase next year, the EIA said. Total U.S. natural gas production is seen increasing 0.8% in 2007 and 1.3% in 2008, the agency concluded.

Liquefied natural gas imports this year are expected to be about 47% above last year's, with an additional 19% rise seen in 2008, the EIA said. High U.S. natural gas prices in the first half of 2007, compared to other countries, attracted the additional imports, the agency said. Growing global LNG demand in the near term is seen slowing imports to the U.S. for the third and fourth quarters of 2007, with imports expected to pick up in early 2008, the EIA predicted.
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