ZEW-Frühindikator

[Benjamin]

Erläuterung + Charts: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...023#post257023

http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...608#post258608

Frühindikatoren in den USA: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...893#post258893

Zahlen zur ZEW Konjunkturerwartung für Oktober 2006:
Der ZEW Konjunkturindex notiert bei -27,4. Erwartet wurde der Index mit -20 bis -21 nach zuletzt -22,2.


Konjunkturerwartungen erhalten deutlichen Dämpfer
17. Oktober 2006

...

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...r-1381478.html
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ZEW-Barometer fällt
19. September 2006

...

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...t-1356089.html

[Benjamin]

http://www.destatis.de/grafik/d/basis/vgr/bipgra2.gif

Trübe Konjunkturerwartungen
14. November 2006


http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...n-1385162.html

[Benjamin]

Konjunkturprognose
Ab Mai 2007 brummt die Wirtschaft wieder
14.11.2006

Das wichtige Konjunkturbarometer des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) ist weiter gefallen und liegt nun auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit mehr als 13 Jahren – die knapp 300 Fachleute, die jeden Monat befragt werden, sehen die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten pessimistisch.

Und das ist eine gute Nachricht. ( )

...

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/articl...ft-wieder.html

[Benjamin]

HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 14. November 2006 , 11:32 Uhr
ZEW-Index

Analysten sehen Konjunkturdelle bis Mai

Die Konjunkturerwartungen der Finanzmarktprofis in Deutschland haben sich im November erneut eingetrübt. Der ZEW-Index fiel zwar nur leicht. Experten hatten allerdings einen Anstieg vorausgesagt. Vor allem zwei Themen scheinen Sorgen zu bereiten.

...

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/...i/2732606.html

[Benjamin]

German economic growth slows in 3rd quarter, ZEW index falls
The Associated Press, November 14, 2006

Germany's economy grew more slowly in the third-quarter, the government reported Tuesday, while the closely watched ZEW index of economic sentiment fell again in November for its 10th consecutive monthly decline .

Gross domestic product in Europe's largest economy was up just 0.6 percent in the July-September period, according to the Federal Statistics Office. That was lower than 1.1 percent growth in the second quarter and below the 0.6 percent predicted by analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

In the third quarter of 2005, GDP was up 2.3 percent.

UniCredit economist Andreas Rees said that even though economic activity lost ground, "the upswing remains intact."

He said fourth-quarter GDP was expected to rise 1 percent on the perception that consumers will spend more ahead of the Jan. 1 increase in value-added tax from 16 percent to 19 percent.

Meanwhile, the ZEW index dropped as fears of a global economic slowdown and more interest rate increases by the European Central Bank loomed large.

The index, conducted by the ZEW, or Center for European Economic Research, fell to minus 28.5 from minus 27.4 the month before, its lowest level since March 1993. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the survey index to rise to minus 25.

Any reading below zero shows pessimism about the economic outlook.

UniCredit's Markets & Investment Banking economist Alexander Koch said the decline was "no reason to panic."

"In our view, the extremely low reading of ZEW growth expectations, which is the lowest for more than a decade , paints an overly pessimistic picture," he said in a research note. "Although we don't challenge the clear signs of a forthcoming moderation in growth ... in 2007, the magnitude of the slowdown should remain limited. The momentum of the economic recovery has proved to be more robust than initially thought."

Sentiment was supported by lower oil prices — but not enough to overcome fears about the impact of a slowing world economy and expected interest rate increases by the ECB, ZEW president Wolfgang Franz said in a statement.

He reiterated that Germany's planned VAT increase will dampen a recovery in the economy in the first part of next year.

But he added that German consumers would start spending more toward the middle of next year and that recent corporate tax reform by the government would help lure new investment to Germany.

"The downward trend of expectations seems to have come to a halt. This indicates that consumer demand will stabilize in the second half of next year. Furthermore, the decisions on the corporate tax reform, which will improve the German economy's attractiveness, are sending out a positive signal," Franz said.

The ECB meets Dec. 7 and is expected to increase its key interest rate from 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the federal statistics office Destatis reported that German consumer prices rose more slowly than expected in October.

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in October compared to a drop of 0.7 percent in September. In October 2005, prices rose 1.1 percent. The decline was led, in part by heating oil prices, which fell 7.3 percent from October 2005 to October 2006, and a drop in seasonal food prices after rising during the summer because of drought-like conditions.

The ZEW index is based on a survey of economic expectations among investment professionals and is considered a guide to where Europe's largest economy may be going.

It remains well below its historical average of 34.3. The last time it was lower was in March 1993, when it fell to minus 29.4.

The Mannheim-based ZEW surveyed 298 investment analysts and institutional investors between Oct. 2 and Oct. 16.

___

On the Net:
http://www.zew.de/en/
http://www.destatis.de

[Benjamin]

What Causes a Recession?

By the general definition, you've got a recession on your hands when a nation's economic output has been falling for two or more quarters. Recessions are often accompanied by rising unemployment and decreasing consumer spending.


....that a wide variety of things are often linked to recessions. Causes might be internal (e.g., interest rate changes) or external (e.g., wars, financial crises elsewhere in the world, etc.). Economists vary on their views of what causes recessions. At any given time, you'll likely find some people who think we're heading toward a recession, and some people who think we're moving away from one. When we're in a recession, some economists will think that we're about to turn the corner, while others see continued stagnation.

Google: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q...=Google+Search
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Odds Of U.S. Recession Growing, Fed Model Says
11-01-06, WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) --

The odds of a recession in the United States in the next year are now greater than 50-50 , according to a simplified version of a model developed by an economist at the Federal Reserve.

The model, which relates the shape of the yield curve to the Fed's interest rate target, has been extremely accurate at predicting recessions in the past. But economists who study the business cycle say the model may be delivering a misleading message today.

Fed economist Jonathan Wright developed the model in a paper published earlier this year, based on research by, among others, new Fed Gov. Frederic Mishkin and New York Fed economist Arturo Estrella.

If bond yields stay at current levels for the next three months, Wright's model would predict a recession. Current yields have been in a recession-zone for only a day so far.

In Wright's model, a steep, sustained inversion of the yield curve, combined with a relatively high federal funds rate, would point to a recession.

The inverted yield curve does not cause a recession; it's just a signal of a pending slowdown.

"Forecasters are really bad at forecasting recessions," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at Economic Cycle Research Institute, which did forecast the 2001 recession, based on ECRI's own leading economic indicators.

Achuthan doesn't think the yield curve is the "holy grail of economic forecasting."

"The yield curve doesn't pass our test to be included in our leading indicators," he said. His firm is not forecasting a recession this year or next, but is "by no means bullish."

Achuthan said recessions are hard to predict. "Recessions aren't the result of the linear addition of bad things," he said in an interview. But if all the drivers of the economy -- profits, housing, interest rates, confidence and inventories -- move down together, then you have the risk of a downturn.

Wright's paper seemed to influence Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's comment in March that the flat yield curve of the time was not predicting a recession because the federal funds rate was relatively low.

Inversion has been widening

But now, after three more rate hikes, the federal funds rate can no longer be considered low.

The yield curve represents the yields of various Treasury securities of different maturities. Typically, short-term securities yield less than long-term securities, because investors demand extra compensation for locking up their money for a longer period. This pattern is the basis for a profitable financial industry, which makes money by borrowing short and lending long.

But sometimes, the curve "inverts" and short-term securities yield more than long ones. The yield on a three-month Treasury bill was yielding 5.09% on Wednesday, while the 10-year note was yielding 4.58%.

The yield curve has been inverted for several months, but the inversion widened once the Fed stopped raising the federal funds rate. The inversion is now more than 50 basis points.

The Wright recession indicator moved above 50% late Tuesday for the first time in this business cycle. Following a disappointingly weak reading from the Institute for Supply Management, the bond market rallied further on Wednesday, driving long-term yields lower and sending the recession odds to 52%.

Following the weak economic news Wednesday, the futures market is now predicting that the Fed will cut rates in March.

Yield curve not enough

The recession odds have been above 50% eight times in the past 45 years. Six times, a recession followed within a year . The only occasions the economy avoided a recession were in the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s, both periods when the federal government flooded the economy with fiscal stimulus, noted David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch.

Some economists pooh-pooh the link between the shape of the yield curve and the path of the economy. They say the curve is inverted not because of perceived weakness in the U.S. economy, but because of high demand for Treasurys in a global market that's awash in liquidity looking for yield.

"There are structural changes in the credit markets that weaken the signal," said Chris Varvares, chief economist for Macroeconomic Advisers, a top forecasting firm. Varvares said he believes the risk of recession over the next 12 months is "quite low."

In his March speech, Bernanke said the Fed policymakers won't react solely to a signal from the yield curve.

"Policymakers should monitor bond yields carefully in judging the current state of the economy--but only in tandem with the signals from other important financial variables; direct readings on spending, production, and prices; and a goodly helping of qualitative information," Bernanke said.

[simplify]

woher wollen die alle wissen, dass es ab mai wieder brummt mit der wirtschaft?
okay, biergärten und strassencafes haben sicher dann konjunktur. auch cabrios und motorräder dürften boomen, wenn das wetter schön ist.

was aber ist mit der weltkonjunktur? geht die party in den usa und china wirklich ungebremmst auf so hohen niveu weiter?

[Benjamin]

Ich habe mir die Korrelation zwischen der Konjunkturprognosekennzahl ZEW und
dem REX GESAMT Performance-Index

bzw. dem ZEW und dem DAX angesehen. Beide sind schlecht:

[621Paul]

Hi Benjamin,
da kann es doch nur besser werden!

[Benjamin]

ZEW-Index

„Abwärtskorrekturen scheinen abgeschlossen“
16. Oktober 2007

...

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...n-1491592.html

[Benjamin]

ZEW Konjunkturerwartung des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) für Dezember 2007:

Der ZEW Konjunkturindex für Deutschland notiert im Dezember bei -37,2. Erwartet wurde der Index mit -35,0. Im Monat zuvor hatte er noch bei -32,5 gelegen.
Den historische Mittelwert des Konjunkturindikators gibt das ZEW mit 31,4 Punkten an.

Die aktuelle konjunkturelle Lage Deutschlands hat sich nach Angaben des ZEW auf 63,5 Zähler verringert von noch 70,0 im Monat zuvor.

Die Konjunkturerwartung für die Eurozone verschlechterte sich um 5,7 Punkte und notiert im Dezember bei nun -35,7 Zählern. Die aktuelle Konjunkturlage im Euroraum verliert um 0,6 Zähler auf nunmehr 59,6 Punkte.

[Benjamin]

ZEW: Finanzexperten rechnen mit Erholung
12.2.2008 11:58 Uhr

Die derzeitige Bankenkrise wirkt sich zwar nicht gerade positiv auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland aus. Anlass zur Sorge besteht nach Ansicht von Analysten aber nicht: Sie glauben an eine Besserung - in einem halben Jahr.

Die Konjunkturerwartungen für Deutschland haben sich im Februar leicht aufgehellt. Das Stimmungsbarometer des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) stieg um 2,1 Punkte auf minus 39,5 Punkte , wie das ZEW in Mannheim mitteilte.

"Die Banken gehen zurzeit durch das Tal der Tränen, aber die Finanzanalysten rechnen damit, dass in einem halben Jahr wohl das Schlimmste überstanden sein wird", sagte ZEW-Präsident Wolfgang Franz. "Dies dürfte die Sorgen um die Entwicklung der deutschen Konjunktur mindern."

Die derzeitige Krise führe die Wirtschaft nicht in eine Abwärtsspirale. Vielmehr deuteten die Erwartungen vielmehr auf eine vorsichtige konjunkturelle Entspannung ab Mitte dieses Jahres hin, hieß es weiter. (sf/dpa)
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Überraschend gestiegen sind die ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen im Februar. Das könnte nach Einschätzung der UniCredit für eine zeitlich überschaubare Phase der konjunkturellen Abkühlung in Deutschland sprechen. Zwar liege der Indikator immer noch auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit Januar 1993, was für ein Wachstum in Deutschland unter Potenzial im laufenden Jahr spreche, heißt es in einer Studie der Bank vom Dienstag. Die Konjunkturerwartungen hätten sich aber stabilisiert. Dies sei ein „Hoffnungsschimmer“ , dass die Dauer der konjunkturellen Abkühlung in Deutschland überschaubar bleibe.

[Benjamin]

Der Optimismus ist verdampft:
ZEW-Index stürzt ab
Stand: 19.07.2016

Das Barometer für die Erwartungen in den nächsten sechs Monaten fiel im Juli um 26 Punkte auf minus 6,8 Zähler und damit auf den niedrigsten Stand seit November 2012, teilte das Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) mit.

Drastisch ist dagegen der Rückgang der Konjunkturerwartungen für die Eurozone: Dieser Teilindex stürzte um 34,9 Punkte auf minus 14,7 Punkte ab. An der Umfrage nahmen 220 Anleger und Analysten teil.

Quelle: http://boerse.ard.de/anlagestrategie...rzt-ab100.html
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Die 2 letzten Grafiken unten stammen aus dieser Quelle: http://www.zew.de/de/presse/pressear...brexit-votums/
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Der unterste Chart zeigt, dass die Korrelation von ZEW-Index mit dem DAX-Indes sehr schlecht ist!

[Benjamin]

https://www.zew.de/de/presse/pressea...brexit-votums/

[Benjamin]

Lagebeurteilung und Erwartungen klaffen auseinander
ZEW-Index: Licht am Ende eines langen Tunnels?
Stand: 21.04.2020, 11:46 Uhr
Quelle: https://boerse.ard.de/anlagestrategi...unnels100.html

Konstellation wie in der Finanzkrise
Laut ZEW sind die Konjunkturerwartungen im April um 77,7 Punkte auf jetzt plus 28,2 Punkte angestiegen. Die Einschätzung der konjunkturellen Lage allerdings hat sich dramatisch verschlechtert: Der Lageindikator liegt bei minus 91,5 Punkten, das ist ein Rückgang um 48,4 Punkte gegenüber dem März-Wert.

"Diese Konstellation von Erwartungen und Lageeinschätzung entspricht ungefähr den Werten von April/Mai 2009 während der Finanzkrise", so das ZEW am Dienstag in seiner aktuellen Mitteilung.

Die Ergebnisse einiger Sonderfragen zur Coronakrise zeigten, dass erst wieder zum Ende des dritten Quartals ein positives Wirtschaftswachstum erwartet werde. "Die Wirtschaftsleistung von vor der Coronakrise soll erst im Jahr 2022 wieder erreicht werden", so ZEW-Präsident Achim Wambach.

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DAX 01.02.2009 - 02.06.2009: