@Simplify, es ist nicht die OPEC allein die den Ölpreis bestimmt, ich rechne nicht mit einem signifikanten Rückgang des Ölpreises in den nächsten Monaten.
Crude Oil Futures Rise to Record on Bombings in Iraq and Turkey
May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record for a second day in New York and rallied in London after the head of Iraq's governing council was killed, raising concern that supply from the Middle East's third-largest oil producer may be disrupted.
Izzedine Salim, the holder of the interim council's rotating presidency, was killed in a car-bomb attack on his four-vehicle convoy in Baghdad, said Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari. Attacks on four British bank branches in Turkey on the eve of a visit by U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair also pushed up prices.
``News like this morning's bombing in Baghdad is going to keep oil prices well above a floor of $30 a barrel,'' said Dave Thomas, an oil analyst at Commerzbank Securities in London. ``Whatever OPEC says about production quotas at the moment is academic. Everyone is ignoring them.''
U.S. crude oil jumped as much as 47 cents, or 1.1 percent, to an all-time high of $41.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after beating the previous 1990 record of $41.15 a barrel on Friday. It traded at $41.59 as of 1:13 p.m. London time.
Brent crude oil for July settlement rose as much as 64 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $38.50 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange in London, its highest level in 13 1/2 years. It traded at $38.15 at 1:13 p.m. London time.
Brent's all-time intra-day high of $40.95 a barrel was recorded on Oct. 10, 1990, in the aftermath of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait that cut off exports from both countries.
Prices have risen 28 percent in New York this year, partly on concern that U.S. gasoline inventories will remain slim during the peak-demand summer driving season, which traditionally begins with the Memorial Day holiday at the end of this month.
World oil demand is expected to record its biggest growth in 16 years in 2004, mainly because of China's surging economy and a recovery in the U.S., the International Energy Agency said in a report last week. Higher-than-expected consumption has also boosted prices this year.
Geopolitics
``Gasoline inventories are still a fundamental reason, but right now it's geopolitics that's affecting prices,'' Thomas said.
Oil prices have risen after previous Middle East terrorist strikes that occurred during weekends, including an attack on a Saudi Arabian petrochemical plant on May 1 and a suicide bombing of an offshore Iraqi oil-tanker loading platform on April 24.
``We might see prices dropping today as the shock of the news subsides,'' said Veronica Smart, an analyst at the Energy Information Centre, a consulting company in Newmarket, England.
The bombings in Turkey damaged two branches of British-owned bank HSBC Holdings Inc. in Istanbul yesterday evening and two in Ankara at about midnight. No injuries were reported.
Busiest
The Turkish straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles are among the world's busiest waterways and the main route through which the former Soviet states send crude oil and other exports to markets around the Mediterranean, on ships that pass Istanbul.
About 4.25 million barrels of Iraqi Kirkuk-grade crude was pumped from Iraq's northern oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the past seven days, according to shipping agents involved with the exports.
Prices also gained amid concern that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the supplier of more than a third of the world's oil, may not have sufficient production capacity, or will power, to lower prices, traders said.
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has urged OPEC to raise output quotas by at least 1.5 million barrels a day to help stem surging prices.
OPEC is already exceeding its quota by more than 2 million barrels a day though, according to Bloomberg estimates. The group is producing almost as much as it can already, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said Saturday.
OPEC Capacity
``There isn't that much spare capacity left in OPEC,'' said Dennis Kongsiri, vice president of Mitsui & Co. Energy Risk Management in Sydney. ``Saying they're going to increase quotas won't be much of a surprise to anyone -- it will just legitimize their overproduction.''
The 10 OPEC members that follow a quota system can't add more than 2.5 million to 3 million barrels a day on a sustainable basis to the at least 25 million barrels a day they produce now, Qatar's al-Attiyah said. The group may agree to raise the quota when oil ministers meet informally in Amsterdam during the May 22-24 International Energy Forum.
Saudi Arabia controls most of the spare production capacity within OPEC. It pumped about 8.4 million barrels a day during April, according to Bloomberg estimates, and claims it can produce as much as 10.5 million barrels a day within a matter of weeks, if needed.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Stephen Voss in London
sev@bloomberg.net
and Alejandro Barbajosa in London
abarbajosa@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Reinie Booysen at
rbooysen@bloomberg.net.
Tim Coulter at
tcoulter@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 17, 2004 08:18 EDT