Zitat:
Die private Verschuldung erreicht inzwischen fast 210 Prozent der jährlichen Wirtschaftsleistung. Zum Vergleich: In den USA liegt dieser Wert bei 146 Prozent. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Verschuldung beläuft sich nach Schätzungen der US-Investmentbank Goldman Sachs auf 286 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung.
Die Situation an den Kreditmärkten ist bedenklich. Neukredite gehen nahezu vollständig in die Umschuldung alter Kredite. Die Unternehmen leiden unter akutem Liquiditätsmangel. 2014 nahmen sie rund 1500 Milliarden Dollar Schulden in Fremdwährungen auf, oft mit kurzen Laufzeiten. Ein Jahr zuvor lag dieser Wert noch bei nahezu null.
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Quelle: Autor Frank Doll, 26. April 2015
http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/boerse/r.../11649924.html
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China’s debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 300% may grow to a ratio likely to balloon to 400% over the next few years.
Zitat:
“The problem is the credit story,” Chanos said. “China’s banking system is bloated and it’s basically taking on more and more leverage.”
Chanos declined to elaborate further when contacted for comments but he has been an unabashed critic of China’s debt-fueled economic growth and has been sounding alarm bells of possible hard landing for the world’s second largest economy for several years. A so-called hard landing can refer to a rapid economic slowdown that occurs typically as a government’s central bank is attempting to tighten fiscal policy and combat inflation.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ece-2015-05-22
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/...conomic-risks/
http://www.scmp.com/business/china-b...roperty-market
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May 22, 2015
China bets on expanding its way out of debt
Latest data show credit squeeze risks morphing into a credit crunch
Zitat:
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Although Beijing has loosened monetary policy three times over the past six months, real interest rates are rising sharply as deflation bites. They climbed to 10.8 per cent in March, their highest level since the financial crisis. Nominal average lending rates are lower, at 6.6 per cent, but still anomalously high in a world in which some $2tn in bonds trade at negative yields.
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Zitat:
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The impact of such a tight credit environment becomes clear when the size of China’s total corporate debt service burden is calculated. Given that non-financial total corporate debt is estimated by McKinsey to amount to $12.5tn, Chinese companies are paying on a nominal basis some $812bn in interest payments each year. In real terms, this amounts to $1.35tn. This is not only significantly more than China’s projected total industrial profits this year; it is slightly bigger than the size of a large emerging economy such as Mexico.
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Quelle:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc5f404e-0...#ixzz3awX2yMEO