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Benjamin · 08-12-2004, 14:44

Na, und hier das Konjunkturwachstumsargument: Wenn es in den USA am besten wächst, warum dann woanders investieren?
USA: +3,x%
Euroland: 2,x%
Japan: 1,x%

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg)

Japan's Economy Grew Less Than Expected in Third Qtr (Update9)
Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew at a slower-than- expected 0.2 percent annual pace in the third quarter as consumer spending lagged an initial estimate, adding to signs that the nation's recovery is stalling.

Falling wages and job losses are curbing consumer spending and sales at retailers including Takashimaya Co., leaving the world's second-largest economy dependent on business investment and exports to maintain growth. Exports grew at their slowest pace in more than a year in the quarter, and a drop in industrial production in October suggests corporate demand may also wane.

``Economic growth is very stagnant,'' said Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Consumer spending growth, which is weak, is needed to help the economy avoid a recession as exports slow.''

Japan's growth lagged the annual 3.9 percent expansion in the U.S. , the world's largest economy, in the third quarter. The economy of the 12 nations that share the euro grew 0.3 percent in the quarter from the previous three months.

``We have a dimming growth outlook for Japan,'' said Fatih Yilmaz, a currency strategist in London at Bank of America Corp. ``It's likely to make policy makers considerably less tolerant of any yen appreciation.'' Exports, which become less competitive as the yen advances, grew at the slowest pace in more than a year.

Today's gross domestic product figures reflected revisions to the way Japan calculates growth. The report also showed Japan's economy, the world's second largest, grew 1.9 percent in the fiscal year ended in March , less than the previous estimate of 3.2 percent.

``The economic situation is so obviously deteriorating,'' said Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in London. ``Authorities won't allow the Japanese yen to appreciate below 100'' per dollar.

The dollar's advance against the euro encouraged investors to sell euro-denominated German government debt and buy higher- yielding U.S. Treasuries, said traders including Paul Calvetti, at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York.

The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded the comparable German yield by 54 basis points yesterday. As the 10-year bund's price fell today, pushing its yield up 3 basis points to 3.70 percent, the yield gap narrowed to 50 basis points. There was no difference as recently as September.

Wide Gap

Last week the U.S. yield exceeded the German yield by as much as 59 basis points, the most in four years. The 60 basis- point level represents ``solid support'' for the Treasury note, Michael McGlone, a technical analyst at ABN Amro Inc. in New York, wrote in a research note.
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The dollar rose the most since May against the yen and rallied versus the euro, British pound and a dozen other major currencies as traders reversed bets that the U.S. currency would decline.

``Maybe we were a little overdone'' on the dollar's potential to weaken, said David Durrant, chief currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in New York, which manages $95 billion. ``There's been a shift in expectations here'' on economic growth and rate-increase expectations.

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Mittwoch 10. November 2004
EZB senkt Wachstumserwartungen für Europa

Frankfurt/Main (AFP) - Angesichts des Höhenflugs von Ölpreis und Eurokurs schraubt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) ihre Konjunkturerwartungen für die Eurozone zurück. Zwar bewege sich die Wirtschaft noch im Rahmen der bisherigen Einschätzung, wonach das Wachstum in diesem Jahr zwischen zwei und 2,5 Prozent liegen wird, sagte EZB-Chefvolkswirt Otmar Issing der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung". Eine Wachstumsrate von 2,5 Prozent entspreche aber "nicht mehr unserer Einschätzung des Potenzial".

Das Wachstum in der Euro-Zone werde "eher am unteren Rand" der bisherigen Schätzung liegen, sagte Issing. Zur Begründung nannte der EZB-Chefvolkwirt unter anderem den hohen Ölpreis, der "mittelfristig einen abschwächenden Effekt auf das Wachstum" haben werde. Auch die Entwicklung der Inflationsrate werde von den europäischen Währungshütern "nicht ohne Sorge" beobachtet: "Die Risiken für die weitere Belebung der Wirtschaft haben sich ebenso wie die Preisrisiken erhöht." Von einer Stagnationsgefahr könne jedoch nicht die Rede sein.

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Federal Reserve policy makers have doubled their target interest rate to 2 percent since June, and will probably lift it to 2.25 percent next week, according to all 22 primary dealers in U.S. securities. The European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 2 percent since June 2003.

The attraction of higher U.S. yields was emphasized yesterday after the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and dropped a phrase signaling it may raise rates in the future, Pearson said.

The dollar also climbed against the euro as some traders were drawn to the yield advantage of U.S. 10-year notes over German debt that's near the widest in four years, said Steve Pearson, head of currency strategy at HBOS Plc.
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Man schaue sich einmal die aktuellen Umsätze bei den Shorts auf den Bund-Future an!!! Die Rendite der längerlaufenden US-Bonds fällt demgegenüber.
https://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...795#post159795

08-12-2004, 14:44	#1099
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	Na, und hier das Konjunkturwachstumsargument: Wenn es in den USA am besten wächst, warum dann woanders investieren? USA: +3,x% Euroland: 2,x% Japan: 1,x% Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) Japan's Economy Grew Less Than Expected in Third Qtr (Update9) Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew at a slower-than- expected 0.2 percent annual pace in the third quarter as consumer spending lagged an initial estimate, adding to signs that the nation's recovery is stalling. Falling wages and job losses are curbing consumer spending and sales at retailers including Takashimaya Co., leaving the world's second-largest economy dependent on business investment and exports to maintain growth. Exports grew at their slowest pace in more than a year in the quarter, and a drop in industrial production in October suggests corporate demand may also wane. ``Economic growth is very stagnant,'' said Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Consumer spending growth, which is weak, is needed to help the economy avoid a recession as exports slow.'' Japan's growth lagged the annual 3.9 percent expansion in the U.S. , the world's largest economy, in the third quarter. The economy of the 12 nations that share the euro grew 0.3 percent in the quarter from the previous three months. ``We have a dimming growth outlook for Japan,'' said Fatih Yilmaz, a currency strategist in London at Bank of America Corp. ``It's likely to make policy makers considerably less tolerant of any yen appreciation.'' Exports, which become less competitive as the yen advances, grew at the slowest pace in more than a year. Today's gross domestic product figures reflected revisions to the way Japan calculates growth. The report also showed Japan's economy, the world's second largest, grew 1.9 percent in the fiscal year ended in March , less than the previous estimate of 3.2 percent. ``The economic situation is so obviously deteriorating,'' said Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in London. ``Authorities won't allow the Japanese yen to appreciate below 100'' per dollar. The dollar's advance against the euro encouraged investors to sell euro-denominated German government debt and buy higher- yielding U.S. Treasuries, said traders including Paul Calvetti, at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded the comparable German yield by 54 basis points yesterday. As the 10-year bund's price fell today, pushing its yield up 3 basis points to 3.70 percent, the yield gap narrowed to 50 basis points. There was no difference as recently as September. Wide Gap Last week the U.S. yield exceeded the German yield by as much as 59 basis points, the most in four years. The 60 basis- point level represents ``solid support'' for the Treasury note, Michael McGlone, a technical analyst at ABN Amro Inc. in New York, wrote in a research note. ------------------------------------------------------ The dollar rose the most since May against the yen and rallied versus the euro, British pound and a dozen other major currencies as traders reversed bets that the U.S. currency would decline. ``Maybe we were a little overdone'' on the dollar's potential to weaken, said David Durrant, chief currency strategist at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in New York, which manages $95 billion. ``There's been a shift in expectations here'' on economic growth and rate-increase expectations. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mittwoch 10. November 2004 EZB senkt Wachstumserwartungen für Europa Frankfurt/Main (AFP) - Angesichts des Höhenflugs von Ölpreis und Eurokurs schraubt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) ihre Konjunkturerwartungen für die Eurozone zurück. Zwar bewege sich die Wirtschaft noch im Rahmen der bisherigen Einschätzung, wonach das Wachstum in diesem Jahr zwischen zwei und 2,5 Prozent liegen wird, sagte EZB-Chefvolkswirt Otmar Issing der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung". Eine Wachstumsrate von 2,5 Prozent entspreche aber "nicht mehr unserer Einschätzung des Potenzial". Das Wachstum in der Euro-Zone werde "eher am unteren Rand" der bisherigen Schätzung liegen, sagte Issing. Zur Begründung nannte der EZB-Chefvolkwirt unter anderem den hohen Ölpreis, der "mittelfristig einen abschwächenden Effekt auf das Wachstum" haben werde. Auch die Entwicklung der Inflationsrate werde von den europäischen Währungshütern "nicht ohne Sorge" beobachtet: "Die Risiken für die weitere Belebung der Wirtschaft haben sich ebenso wie die Preisrisiken erhöht." Von einer Stagnationsgefahr könne jedoch nicht die Rede sein. ------------------------------------------------------------- Federal Reserve policy makers have doubled their target interest rate to 2 percent since June, and will probably lift it to 2.25 percent next week, according to all 22 primary dealers in U.S. securities. The European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 2 percent since June 2003. The attraction of higher U.S. yields was emphasized yesterday after the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and dropped a phrase signaling it may raise rates in the future, Pearson said. The dollar also climbed against the euro as some traders were drawn to the yield advantage of U.S. 10-year notes over German debt that's near the widest in four years, said Steve Pearson, head of currency strategy at HBOS Plc. ------------------------------------- Man schaue sich einmal die aktuellen Umsätze bei den Shorts auf den Bund-Future an!!! Die Rendite der längerlaufenden US-Bonds fällt demgegenüber. https://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...795#post159795 Geändert von Benjamin (11-12-2004 um 09:12 Uhr)