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Woernie · 11-03-2005, 08:54

Hi Benjamin, Oegeat...

ich bin Abonent bei TrimTabs, die einen sehr eigenständigen Analyseansatz verfolgen (Liquiditätsprinzip). unter leitung von Madeleine Schnapp unterhalten sie auch ein Makro-Ökonom.-Research-center, dessen methoden von denen offizieller stellen wie zum beispiel das BLS ziemlich abweichen. so kommt TT im moment zu einem völlig anderen bild der arbeitsmarktdaten, die für die indizes UND den Dollar eigentlich einen sehr bullischen ausblick rechtfertigen. job growth bei TT wird auf der basis einbehaltener lohnsteuer berechnet...der ansatz ist zumindest nicht 'unlogisch'. ich stelle mal das heutrige Liqui-Update hier rein, nur für den 'Hinterkopf'. benjamin, dein ursprüngliches szenario , welches auch meines war/ist, könnte dadurch vielleicht wenigstens neue 'fundamental-nahrung' erhalten.

TrimTabs Overnight Liquidity Update – Mar 10, 2005

Despite This Past Wednesday’s Sell-Off, We Remain Very Bullish on Stock Market and U.S. Dollar.

We remain very bullish on the stock market—particularly technology stocks—and the U.S. dollar because the macroeconomic picture is extremely favorable. While many Wall Street economists are worrying that rising crude oil prices and rising interest rates will dramatically slow economic growth, our analysis of daily income tax withholdings indicates that the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders.

During the first ten months of 2004, wage and salary growth averaged about 4% year-over-year. If wage increases accounted for 2.5% of this 4% growth rate, job growth must have accounted for the remaining 1.5%, which translates into annualized job growth of about two million jobs (130 million jobs * 1.5% = 1.95 million jobs).

If job growth averaged 163,000 jobs per month when wage and salary growth averaged 4% year-over-year, employment growth must be very robust if wage and salary growth is averaging 7.8% year-over-year -- as it has from November 2004 through March 9, 2005. To be conservative, we subtract 1% from this 7.8% growth rate for year-end bonuses and 3% for wage increases. The remaining 3.8% must be due to job growth, which translates into annualized job growth of about 5.0 million jobs (130 million jobs * 3.8% = 4.94 million jobs), or 411,000 jobs per month.

Income tax payments, other than from withholding, is growing even faster than wages and salaries subject to withholding -- up 10.9% year over year since the start of November 2004. About 25% to 30% of that category is capital gains taxes, but the bulk is either from self-employed individuals and from underreported regular income.

Rising Personal Incomes, Bulging Savings Accounts, Continued Corporate Buying, and Slumping Corporate Selling Could Spark Big Rally.

We admit that rising personal incomes have not translated into huge inflows into equity funds. Over the past five trading days, all equity fund inflows have averaged $600 million daily, $300 million daily into U.S. equity funds and $300 million daily into global equity funds.

Yet growth in savings has been strong. According to the latest Federal Reserve H.6 (Money Stock Measures), cash in savings vehicles (bank deposits, small-denomination certificates of deposit, and retail money market funds) totaled $5.08 trillion in February 2005, up $101 billion from September 2004. That compares with a gain of just $18 billion from September 2003 through February 2004. Remember inflows into equities were huge during the fall of 2003 through early February 2004. (For the record, savings data released by the Federal Reserve in the H6 fluctuates wildly week to week particularly in December and January. That’s why we compare seasonally adjusted gains over five months year over year.)

Corporate America clearly sees more value in its own shares than in cash. Over the past five trading days, new cash takeovers have averaged an impressive $1.5 billion daily (adding $1.0 billion daily to current liquidity), while new stock buybacks have averaged an astonishing $4.0 billion daily. Meanwhile, new offerings have averaged a mere $500 million daily over the same period.

New Offerings Will Approach $3 Billion This Week, More Than Last Week But Well Below the $1.5 Billion Daily Pace of February –March 2004.

Dealogic reports that some $800 million or so of new shares are being priced tonight for sale tomorrow. If that happens, then new offerings will total about $3 billion for the week, more than last week, but well below the $1.5 billion daily pace of last February - March. For next week, there are two jumbo new offerings boosting the up front calendar to near $4 billion. PanAmSat is going public again, this time for $1 billion and Halliburton is selling a $2.5 billion follow-on offering.

Combine a massive buildup of sideline cash, hefty corporate buying, and slumping corporate selling, and stock prices could whoosh upward.

Hedge Funds Are Obsessed with Slowdown in Tech Growth, Which Is Why We Are Long QQQQ (Nasdaq-100).

Hedge funds are apparently shorting technology stocks because they are obsessed with the slowdown in tech growth. Their eagerness to short tech why we are long QQQQ (Nasdaq-100).

We Are Bearish on Financials Because We Expect Long-Term Interest Rates Likely to 6% at Some Point.

While we are bullish on technology, we are bearish on financials, which have been profiting from low interest rates over the past few years. We expect long-term interest rates to match the economic growth rate eventually. Over the recent past, hedge fund activity and foreign buying has been supporting bond prices. However, even assuming economic growth cools to 6% from 7.8%, long-term interest rates should climb to 6% at some point, which would hurt lenders and real estate.

We just realized that one of our current long positions, IWM (Russell 2000), is heavily weighted in financials, including banks and mortgage companies. Thus, we plan to sell this position and replace it with an equivalent amount of QQQQ (Nasdaq-100).

MUTUAL FUND FLOWS FOR March 09, 2005

ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: INFLOW $246.8 MILLION; NAV DOWN 0.8%

US EQUITY FUNDS

FLOW: INFLOW $49.1 MILLION

BREADTH: NEGATIVE 39 OUT VERSUS 17 IN

NAV: DOWN 0.8%

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUNDS

FLOW: INFLOW $197.7 MILLION

BREADTH: POSITIVE 12 IN VERSUS 6 OUT

NAV: DOWN 0.5%

BONDS & HYBRID:

FLOW: OUTFLOW $245.9 MILLION

NAV: DOWN 0.4%

L1: NET FLOAT -$2,695 MILLION

NEW ANNOUNCED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0 MILLION

COMPLETED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0 MILLION

NEW STOCK BUYBACKS $4,056 MILLION

NEW OFFERINGS: $761 MILLION

INSIDER SELLING $600 MILLION

L2: US EQUITY FUND FLOW $49 MILLION

bitte nicht weiter kopieren...

11-03-2005, 08:54	#1941
Woernie TBB Stammgast Registriert seit: Sep 2002 Ort: Stuttgart Beiträge: 11	TrimTabs... Hi Benjamin, Oegeat... ich bin Abonent bei TrimTabs, die einen sehr eigenständigen Analyseansatz verfolgen (Liquiditätsprinzip). unter leitung von Madeleine Schnapp unterhalten sie auch ein Makro-Ökonom.-Research-center, dessen methoden von denen offizieller stellen wie zum beispiel das BLS ziemlich abweichen. so kommt TT im moment zu einem völlig anderen bild der arbeitsmarktdaten, die für die indizes UND den Dollar eigentlich einen sehr bullischen ausblick rechtfertigen. job growth bei TT wird auf der basis einbehaltener lohnsteuer berechnet...der ansatz ist zumindest nicht 'unlogisch'. ich stelle mal das heutrige Liqui-Update hier rein, nur für den 'Hinterkopf'. benjamin, dein ursprüngliches szenario , welches auch meines war/ist, könnte dadurch vielleicht wenigstens neue 'fundamental-nahrung' erhalten. TrimTabs Overnight Liquidity Update – Mar 10, 2005 Despite This Past Wednesday’s Sell-Off, We Remain Very Bullish on Stock Market and U.S. Dollar. We remain very bullish on the stock market—particularly technology stocks—and the U.S. dollar because the macroeconomic picture is extremely favorable. While many Wall Street economists are worrying that rising crude oil prices and rising interest rates will dramatically slow economic growth, our analysis of daily income tax withholdings indicates that the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders. During the first ten months of 2004, wage and salary growth averaged about 4% year-over-year. If wage increases accounted for 2.5% of this 4% growth rate, job growth must have accounted for the remaining 1.5%, which translates into annualized job growth of about two million jobs (130 million jobs * 1.5% = 1.95 million jobs). If job growth averaged 163,000 jobs per month when wage and salary growth averaged 4% year-over-year, employment growth must be very robust if wage and salary growth is averaging 7.8% year-over-year -- as it has from November 2004 through March 9, 2005. To be conservative, we subtract 1% from this 7.8% growth rate for year-end bonuses and 3% for wage increases. The remaining 3.8% must be due to job growth, which translates into annualized job growth of about 5.0 million jobs (130 million jobs * 3.8% = 4.94 million jobs), or 411,000 jobs per month. Income tax payments, other than from withholding, is growing even faster than wages and salaries subject to withholding -- up 10.9% year over year since the start of November 2004. About 25% to 30% of that category is capital gains taxes, but the bulk is either from self-employed individuals and from underreported regular income. Rising Personal Incomes, Bulging Savings Accounts, Continued Corporate Buying, and Slumping Corporate Selling Could Spark Big Rally. We admit that rising personal incomes have not translated into huge inflows into equity funds. Over the past five trading days, all equity fund inflows have averaged $600 million daily, $300 million daily into U.S. equity funds and $300 million daily into global equity funds. Yet growth in savings has been strong. According to the latest Federal Reserve H.6 (Money Stock Measures), cash in savings vehicles (bank deposits, small-denomination certificates of deposit, and retail money market funds) totaled $5.08 trillion in February 2005, up $101 billion from September 2004. That compares with a gain of just $18 billion from September 2003 through February 2004. Remember inflows into equities were huge during the fall of 2003 through early February 2004. (For the record, savings data released by the Federal Reserve in the H6 fluctuates wildly week to week particularly in December and January. That’s why we compare seasonally adjusted gains over five months year over year.) Corporate America clearly sees more value in its own shares than in cash. Over the past five trading days, new cash takeovers have averaged an impressive $1.5 billion daily (adding $1.0 billion daily to current liquidity), while new stock buybacks have averaged an astonishing $4.0 billion daily. Meanwhile, new offerings have averaged a mere $500 million daily over the same period. New Offerings Will Approach $3 Billion This Week, More Than Last Week But Well Below the $1.5 Billion Daily Pace of February –March 2004. Dealogic reports that some $800 million or so of new shares are being priced tonight for sale tomorrow. If that happens, then new offerings will total about $3 billion for the week, more than last week, but well below the $1.5 billion daily pace of last February - March. For next week, there are two jumbo new offerings boosting the up front calendar to near $4 billion. PanAmSat is going public again, this time for $1 billion and Halliburton is selling a $2.5 billion follow-on offering. Combine a massive buildup of sideline cash, hefty corporate buying, and slumping corporate selling, and stock prices could whoosh upward. Hedge Funds Are Obsessed with Slowdown in Tech Growth, Which Is Why We Are Long QQQQ (Nasdaq-100). Hedge funds are apparently shorting technology stocks because they are obsessed with the slowdown in tech growth. Their eagerness to short tech why we are long QQQQ (Nasdaq-100). We Are Bearish on Financials Because We Expect Long-Term Interest Rates Likely to 6% at Some Point. While we are bullish on technology, we are bearish on financials, which have been profiting from low interest rates over the past few years. We expect long-term interest rates to match the economic growth rate eventually. Over the recent past, hedge fund activity and foreign buying has been supporting bond prices. However, even assuming economic growth cools to 6% from 7.8%, long-term interest rates should climb to 6% at some point, which would hurt lenders and real estate. We just realized that one of our current long positions, IWM (Russell 2000), is heavily weighted in financials, including banks and mortgage companies. Thus, we plan to sell this position and replace it with an equivalent amount of QQQQ (Nasdaq-100). MUTUAL FUND FLOWS FOR March 09, 2005 ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: INFLOW $246.8 MILLION; NAV DOWN 0.8% US EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: INFLOW $49.1 MILLION BREADTH: NEGATIVE 39 OUT VERSUS 17 IN NAV: DOWN 0.8% INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: INFLOW $197.7 MILLION BREADTH: POSITIVE 12 IN VERSUS 6 OUT NAV: DOWN 0.5% BONDS & HYBRID: FLOW: OUTFLOW $245.9 MILLION NAV: DOWN 0.4% L1: NET FLOAT -$2,695 MILLION NEW ANNOUNCED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0 MILLION COMPLETED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0 MILLION NEW STOCK BUYBACKS $4,056 MILLION NEW OFFERINGS: $761 MILLION INSIDER SELLING $600 MILLION L2: US EQUITY FUND FLOW $49 MILLION bitte nicht weiter kopieren...