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Analysts: North Korean test more worrying than India-Pakistan blasts
10/9/2006
By Danny Kemp, AFP ISLAMABAD —
Eight years ago it was India and Pakistan who shocked the world with their underground atomic blasts, but North Korea's nuclear test on Monday is far more alarming, analysts said Monday.
In May 1998 a South Asian apocalypse suddenly seemed a possibility after the two rival nations carried out tit-for-tat tests — the last nuclear explosions until now.
News bulletins at the time showed footage of a barren yellow mountain in remote southwestern Pakistan shuddering with the sheer force of simultaneous detonations deep below the earth.
Yet the situation now is more serious, analysts said, particularly as Pyongyang may have learned lessons from Pakistan, whose disgraced nuclear hero provided North Korea with atomic secrets.
"I would say that this is much more significant," analyst and retired Pakistani Army General Talat Masood told AFP.
"In 1998 it was much more India-Pakistan specific, but the North Korean test means U.S. nuclear hegemony in East Asia has collapsed, the counter-proliferation policy by the U.S. has collapsed and their axis of evil policy has collapsed," he said.
Mainly Hindu India carried out its first nuclear test in secret in 1974. It had already fought three wars with Muslim-majority Pakistan since independence from Britain and their subsequent partition in 1947.
In 1998 New Delhi followed up by detonating five warheads beneath the Rajasthan desert between May 11 and 13.
Pakistan came under huge international pressure not to follow suit but it exploded five bombs in Baluchistan province on May 28 and another two days later.
The two countries became the world's sixth and seventh declared nuclear powers respectively, while Pakistan also emerged as the only nation in the Islamic world with the bomb.
"It's a formidable challenge for a country after they have detonated," said analyst Masood. "There is fear of the unknown, as to how the world will react, what the consequences are, what the sanctions will be."
Major powers did impose strict sanctions but they evaporated after a time. Pakistan joined the U.S.-led "war on terror" in 2001, while Washington earlier this year offered India a civilian nuclear power deal.
Naresh Chandra, who was India's ambassador to Washington when India conducted the nuclear tests, said North Korea may have been influenced by Pakistan's escape from U.S. sanctions.
"Pakistan got off lightly even after the A.Q. Khan network was exposed. The U.S. believed their version of the story and they were let off easily. They also got economic aid and financial support," Chandra said.
Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's former chief atomic scientist, admitted in 2004 that he had provided nuclear technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran. The government denied its involvement but gave him a pardon.
President Pervez Musharraf admits that Khan sold Pyongyang around a dozen centrifuges to enrich uranium, but Pakistan says that North Korea's test bomb was likely plutonium-based.
The Pakistani foreign office on Monday denied that the North Korean bomb test was linked to A.Q. Khan's activities and said it "deplored" the test."
"There was also a bit of a cover up when China helped Pakistan and North Korea with nuclear and weapons technology and the U.S. turned a blind eye to this," Chandra added.
"Perhaps North Korea thinks the U.S. will look the other way again."
C.U. Bhaskar, a defense analyst with the New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis — a government-funded military think-tank — said North Korea was counting on getting more international clout.
"The test allows North Korea to enter the six-party talks as a nuclear weapon state on par with China, Russia and the United States," he said.
Pyongyang has boycotted the stalled six-nation talks on its nuclear program since last November.
"This changes the contours of things," said Bhaskar.
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NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES
A glance at the world's nuclear weapons states and their stockpiles, based on estimates compiled from different sources:
North Korea
Believed to have enough fissile material for about a half-dozen weapons, but estimates vary widely and are unverifiable.
U.S.
More than 5,000 strategic warheads, more than 1,000 operational tactical weapons meant for the battlefield and less powerful than the strategic arms and approximately 3,000 reserve and tactical warheads.
Russia
Nearly 5,000 strategic warheads, and approximately 3,500 operational tactical warheads. In addition, it has more than 11,000 strategic and tactical warheads in storage.
France
Approximately 350 strategic warheads.
China
As many as 250 strategic warheads and 150 tactical warheads.
Britain
About 200 strategic warheads.
India
Between 45 and 95 nuclear warheads.
Pakistan
Between 30 and 50 nuclear warheads.
Israel
Refuses to confirm it is a nuclear weapons state but is generally assumed to have up to 200 nuclear warheads.
Sources: Arms Control Association; Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Associated Press
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