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Benjamin · 18-06-2007, 14:30

Thursday June 14
ED&F Man bearish on sugar due Brazil, India supply

LONDON (Reuters) - Sugar merchant ED&F Man said on Thursday it was bearish on sugar prices due to the weight of Brazilian and Indian supplies.

"With the new Brazilian crop now benefiting from ideal harvesting conditions and with Indian efforts to export their current and future surpluses unrelenting, the fundamental picture continues to justify a bearish view on prices ," Man said in a monthly report for May.

"The likelihood of raws prices trading in the 8.0-8.50 cents/lb range has increased even more with the arrival of India as a raw sugar player, albeit only for their next crop."

The New York Board of Trade's key July raw sugar contract declined 0.11 cent to finish at 8.45 cents per lb on Wednesday, trading from 8.55 to a new lifetime low of 8.37.

It was the lowest close for sugar since it ended at 8.40 cents on May 18, 2005.

Raw sugar prices have fallen by almost 30 percent this year.

The price had surged to a 25-year peak of 19.73 cents per lb, based on the spot month, in February 2006 driven by tight supplies and robust demand, and then slid as farmers around the world increased plantings in response to high prices.

ED&F Man said that while recent developments with Indian raws mark a breakthrough for the industry, availability and regional freight advantages are not enough to ensure new markets without ongoing government support.

Dubai's al-Khaleej refinery last week confirmed it had bought more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian raw sugar for shipment later this year and into next year, its first purchase of Indian raw sugar, muscling out competition from Brazil.

Traders say India, aided by export subsidies estimated to total around $71-73 per tonne, could export at least 500,000 tonnes of its next raw sugar crop in competition against Brazil, the world's top raws exporter, and other producers.
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Friday June 15
ISEC will not sell sugar at current prices

By David Brough

LONDON (Reuters) - India's sugar export corporation ISEC , which recently sold raws from India's next crop to the Dubai al-Khaleej refinery, will not sell raw sugar at current prices , its chief executive S.L. Jain said on Thursday.

"At today's levels prices are too low," Jain, head of the Indian Sugar Exim Corporation Ltd (ISEC), told Reuters during a trip to London to attend an industry function.

"We will not dump sugar," he added.

"Less than 10 cents per lb does not suit us."

New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) March 2008 raw sugar futures stood at 9.26 cents per lb , down 0.11 cent, in late afternoon trading. http://www.futuresource.com/charts/c...M&b=CANDLE&st=

Jain said he expected Indian raw sugar export sales from the next crop not to exceed 500,000 tonnes, but the total export tonnage would depend on prices.

Referring to the recent slide in sugar futures following news of the Indian raw sugar sale to Dubai, Jain said of the sugar market: "The psychology is really bad."

A huge centre-south Brazilian harvest and the prospect of substantial Indian raw sugar exports from the next crop are weighing heavily on raw sugar prices, which have fallen by almost 30 percent this year.

Sugar merchant ED&F Man said on Thursday it was bearish on sugar prices due to the weight of Brazilian and Indian supplies.

Dubai's al-Khaleej refinery last week confirmed it had bought more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian raw sugar for shipment later this year and into next year, its first purchase of Indian raw sugar, muscling out competition from Brazil.

Jain said the raw sugar sold to Dubai, for shipment between December 2007 and March 2008, totalled 235,000 tonnes.

He said the sale was agreed at $246.50 per tonne FOB India, and estimated India's net freight advantage over Brazil to the Dubai refinery at $35 per tonne.

He added that Indian production costs were higher than Brazil's, but said India's freight advantage boosted Indian sales prospects in nearby markets from south Asia to the Middle East.

Jain estimated Indian 2006/07 sugar output at 27.5 million tonnes, and forecast 2007/08 production at 28-29 million.

18-06-2007, 14:30	#32
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	Thursday June 14 ED&F Man bearish on sugar due Brazil, India supply LONDON (Reuters) - Sugar merchant ED&F Man said on Thursday it was bearish on sugar prices due to the weight of Brazilian and Indian supplies. "With the new Brazilian crop now benefiting from ideal harvesting conditions and with Indian efforts to export their current and future surpluses unrelenting, the fundamental picture continues to justify a bearish view on prices ," Man said in a monthly report for May. "The likelihood of raws prices trading in the 8.0-8.50 cents/lb range has increased even more with the arrival of India as a raw sugar player, albeit only for their next crop." The New York Board of Trade's key July raw sugar contract declined 0.11 cent to finish at 8.45 cents per lb on Wednesday, trading from 8.55 to a new lifetime low of 8.37. It was the lowest close for sugar since it ended at 8.40 cents on May 18, 2005. Raw sugar prices have fallen by almost 30 percent this year. The price had surged to a 25-year peak of 19.73 cents per lb, based on the spot month, in February 2006 driven by tight supplies and robust demand, and then slid as farmers around the world increased plantings in response to high prices. ED&F Man said that while recent developments with Indian raws mark a breakthrough for the industry, availability and regional freight advantages are not enough to ensure new markets without ongoing government support. Dubai's al-Khaleej refinery last week confirmed it had bought more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian raw sugar for shipment later this year and into next year, its first purchase of Indian raw sugar, muscling out competition from Brazil. Traders say India, aided by export subsidies estimated to total around $71-73 per tonne, could export at least 500,000 tonnes of its next raw sugar crop in competition against Brazil, the world's top raws exporter, and other producers. ################## Friday June 15 ISEC will not sell sugar at current prices By David Brough LONDON (Reuters) - India's sugar export corporation ISEC , which recently sold raws from India's next crop to the Dubai al-Khaleej refinery, will not sell raw sugar at current prices , its chief executive S.L. Jain said on Thursday. "At today's levels prices are too low," Jain, head of the Indian Sugar Exim Corporation Ltd (ISEC), told Reuters during a trip to London to attend an industry function. "We will not dump sugar," he added. "Less than 10 cents per lb does not suit us." New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) March 2008 raw sugar futures stood at 9.26 cents per lb , down 0.11 cent, in late afternoon trading. http://www.futuresource.com/charts/c...M&b=CANDLE&st= Jain said he expected Indian raw sugar export sales from the next crop not to exceed 500,000 tonnes, but the total export tonnage would depend on prices. Referring to the recent slide in sugar futures following news of the Indian raw sugar sale to Dubai, Jain said of the sugar market: "The psychology is really bad." A huge centre-south Brazilian harvest and the prospect of substantial Indian raw sugar exports from the next crop are weighing heavily on raw sugar prices, which have fallen by almost 30 percent this year. Sugar merchant ED&F Man said on Thursday it was bearish on sugar prices due to the weight of Brazilian and Indian supplies. Dubai's al-Khaleej refinery last week confirmed it had bought more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian raw sugar for shipment later this year and into next year, its first purchase of Indian raw sugar, muscling out competition from Brazil. Jain said the raw sugar sold to Dubai, for shipment between December 2007 and March 2008, totalled 235,000 tonnes. He said the sale was agreed at $246.50 per tonne FOB India, and estimated India's net freight advantage over Brazil to the Dubai refinery at $35 per tonne. He added that Indian production costs were higher than Brazil's, but said India's freight advantage boosted Indian sales prospects in nearby markets from south Asia to the Middle East. Jain estimated Indian 2006/07 sugar output at 27.5 million tonnes, and forecast 2007/08 production at 28-29 million. Geändert von Benjamin (18-06-2007 um 14:51 Uhr)