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Benjamin · 02-03-2006, 19:45

US EIA sees 2006 natural gas demand falling below 2005 level
9May2006

Total US gas consumption this year is expected to fall below last year's
level by 1.1% before rebounding in 2007 by 3.4%, the US Energy Information
Administration said Tuesday. Adjusting its month-ago demand estimates
slightly, the agency in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook put the 2006 and
2007 gas demand targets at 21.72 Tcf and 22.46 Tcf, respectively.

"With weak electric heating load due to the warm January and much weaker
expected cooling load this summer compared to 2005, the consumption of natural
gas for generation of electricity is expected to fall by 2.8% in 2006, then
increase by 2.3% in 2007," the report said. Also, because of an exceptionally
warm January this year, residential consumption is projected to fall by 5.1%
from 2005 levels and then increase by 6.5% in 2007, the agency said.

Recovery in natural gas-intensive industrial output following the 2005
hurricanes "will likely contribute to growth in industrial gas consumption
this year (3.5%) and in 2007 (2.3%)."

EIA reported that domestic dry natural gas production in 2005 declined by
2.8%, "largely in response to hurricane-induced infrastructure disruptions in
the Gulf of Mexico." Production is expected to increase by 0.8% this year and
1.6% in 2007. Finally, total liquefied natural gas imports are expected to
increase from their 2005 level of 630 Bcf to 740 Bcf in 2006 and 970 Bcf in
2007 as new infrastructure come online.
-----------------------------------------------------------

09.05.2006
CIBC World Markets report predicts natural gas prices will rise along with summer temperatures in North America

Consumers who benefited from cheaper home heating costs this past winter due to record warm temperatures are likely to need those savings to pay their electricity bills this summer, states a new report from CIBC World Markets.

CIBC World Markets' Monthly Indicators report released today predicts that natural gas prices will rebound as the summer heats up and demand for electricity to fuel air conditioners rises.

"While record warm temperatures this past winter put money back in Canadians' pockets we are likely to put it all back into our air conditioners this summer," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and Chief Strategist, CIBC World Markets.

The report discusses the impact of climate change on natural gas prices, given that natural gas is now the fastest-growing and most dominant source of growth in electric power generation. The warmest winter on record in North America in 2005/06 saw Henry Hub natural gas prices plummet by 40 per cent, into the range of $7.00 to $8.00/mbtu.

For roughly 80 per cent of the world's population living in the northern hemisphere, 2005 was the hottest year since temperatures were first recorded in 1880. As well, the global average surface temperature in 2005 reached a record high. Re-analysis of satellite observations of temperature trends in the troposphere indicates that air temperatures have been warming about 15 per cent faster than was previously thought.

"While there continues to be a debate about causation, there is no longer any doubt that the climate is changing, and changing rapidly," notes Rubin. "Another hot summer in 2006 will likely set a new record for both home cooling days and 'scorchers' - or days in the U.S. when maximum temperatures are way above normal," says Rubin. "We expect that this will push North American electrical demand to new record highs this summer, and in the process pull natural gas prices up to $10/mbtu."

Total electricity demand per American household rose 25 per cent between 1992 and 2005 - boosted notably by a 45 per cent increase in energy consumption for air conditioning. The commercial sector is currently consuming 66 per cent more electricity than in 1992, largely due to a dazzling 95 per cent increase in energy usage for air conditioning.

Over the last thirty years, the share of American households with air conditioning has doubled. Among the almost 80 per cent of American households that have air conditioning, two-thirds own the much more energy consuming central air-cooling systems. These air conditioning systems are working increasingly harder due to rising summer temperatures and the rapid growth in the average home size, which is now 40 per cent larger than in the 1970s.

The complete CIBC World Markets Monthly Indicators report is available at http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_...d/mimay06.pdf.

02-03-2006, 19:45	#30
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	US EIA sees 2006 natural gas demand falling below 2005 level 9May2006 Total US gas consumption this year is expected to fall below last year's level by 1.1% before rebounding in 2007 by 3.4%, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. Adjusting its month-ago demand estimates slightly, the agency in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook put the 2006 and 2007 gas demand targets at 21.72 Tcf and 22.46 Tcf, respectively. "With weak electric heating load due to the warm January and much weaker expected cooling load this summer compared to 2005, the consumption of natural gas for generation of electricity is expected to fall by 2.8% in 2006, then increase by 2.3% in 2007," the report said. Also, because of an exceptionally warm January this year, residential consumption is projected to fall by 5.1% from 2005 levels and then increase by 6.5% in 2007, the agency said. Recovery in natural gas-intensive industrial output following the 2005 hurricanes "will likely contribute to growth in industrial gas consumption this year (3.5%) and in 2007 (2.3%)." EIA reported that domestic dry natural gas production in 2005 declined by 2.8%, "largely in response to hurricane-induced infrastructure disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico." Production is expected to increase by 0.8% this year and 1.6% in 2007. Finally, total liquefied natural gas imports are expected to increase from their 2005 level of 630 Bcf to 740 Bcf in 2006 and 970 Bcf in 2007 as new infrastructure come online. ----------------------------------------------------------- 09.05.2006 CIBC World Markets report predicts natural gas prices will rise along with summer temperatures in North America Consumers who benefited from cheaper home heating costs this past winter due to record warm temperatures are likely to need those savings to pay their electricity bills this summer, states a new report from CIBC World Markets. CIBC World Markets' Monthly Indicators report released today predicts that natural gas prices will rebound as the summer heats up and demand for electricity to fuel air conditioners rises. "While record warm temperatures this past winter put money back in Canadians' pockets we are likely to put it all back into our air conditioners this summer," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and Chief Strategist, CIBC World Markets. The report discusses the impact of climate change on natural gas prices, given that natural gas is now the fastest-growing and most dominant source of growth in electric power generation. The warmest winter on record in North America in 2005/06 saw Henry Hub natural gas prices plummet by 40 per cent, into the range of $7.00 to $8.00/mbtu. For roughly 80 per cent of the world's population living in the northern hemisphere, 2005 was the hottest year since temperatures were first recorded in 1880. As well, the global average surface temperature in 2005 reached a record high. Re-analysis of satellite observations of temperature trends in the troposphere indicates that air temperatures have been warming about 15 per cent faster than was previously thought. "While there continues to be a debate about causation, there is no longer any doubt that the climate is changing, and changing rapidly," notes Rubin. "Another hot summer in 2006 will likely set a new record for both home cooling days and 'scorchers' - or days in the U.S. when maximum temperatures are way above normal," says Rubin. "We expect that this will push North American electrical demand to new record highs this summer, and in the process pull natural gas prices up to $10/mbtu." Total electricity demand per American household rose 25 per cent between 1992 and 2005 - boosted notably by a 45 per cent increase in energy consumption for air conditioning. The commercial sector is currently consuming 66 per cent more electricity than in 1992, largely due to a dazzling 95 per cent increase in energy usage for air conditioning. Over the last thirty years, the share of American households with air conditioning has doubled. Among the almost 80 per cent of American households that have air conditioning, two-thirds own the much more energy consuming central air-cooling systems. These air conditioning systems are working increasingly harder due to rising summer temperatures and the rapid growth in the average home size, which is now 40 per cent larger than in the 1970s. The complete CIBC World Markets Monthly Indicators report is available at http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_...d/mimay06.pdf. Geändert von Benjamin (10-05-2006 um 20:47 Uhr)