Apr 23, 2013:
Soll: $1.45 a pound in three, six and 12 months
Ist: $1.4225 a pound Arabica futures for delivery in July on Apr 23, 2013
“The arabica market will likely only be in a modest deficit or even remain balanced in 2013-14.”
Goldman Sachs arabica coffee price forecasts and (change on last)Three-months: 145 cents a pound, (-10 cents)
Six-months: 145 cents a pound, (-20 cents)
12-months: 145 cents a pound, (-30 cents)
Forecasts for New York front contract
The improved outlook for the crop in Brazil will compensate for production losses caused by coffee leaf rust disease in Central America
sales of leftover stockpiles from the last crop in Brazil may “weigh on prices in coming months,”: Brazilian growers sold 75 percent of the 2012-13 crop by March 31, down from 86 percent a year earlier,
by ABN Amro: prices have scope to go further down still, to levels not seen since 2009 (= ~110), to close the premium to robusta beans
Commodity liquidation by funds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...l-crop-1-.html
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/goldma...ute--5760.html
http://www.agrimoney.com/marketrepor...ind--2112.html
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Kaffee: ICE-Lagerbestände auf Dreijahreshoch
von Tomke Hansmann
Freitag 15.03.2013
Lagerbestände an der Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York mit 2,4 Millionen Säcken auf den höchsten Stand seit dem 4. März 2010 gestiegen!
Folge: Der Preis für Arabica-Kaffee fiel am Freitag auf ein Dreiwochentief bei
137,28 US-US-Cents.
Ein Händler: Wird ein Test der 1,35, der 1,30-US-Dollar-Marke anstehen? Vermutlich ja.
http://www.godmode-trader.de/nachric...,a3050923.html
March 17, 2013, 10:42 a.m. ET
Coffee-Bean Prices Sag
By LESLIE JOSEPHS, NEW YORK—
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ooglenews_wsj#
Mounting stockpiles of arabica coffee around the world
prices down to a 33-month low
Arabica coffee in 60-kilogram (132-pound)
sacks stored in exchange-certified warehouses rose to more than 2.74 million bags Friday, up 6.7% from the start of the year.
Beans are also accumulating in Brazil
Growers there have been holding back some of their crop,
waiting for higher prices. According to Safras & Mercado, a Brazilian consulting firm, farmers there had sold 71% of their 2012 crop by the end of February, down from 87% at the same point last year.
"There's too much Brazilian [coffee], too much arabica," said Thiago Cazarini, a coffee broker based in Varginha, Brazil.
He estimated prices will drop to $1.30-$1.35 a pound.
Arabica coffee for delivery in May on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange fell 2.15 cents, or 1.5%, to
$1.375 a pound, the lowest settlement for the active-month contract since June 10, 2010.
The thinly traded March-delivery contract end(ed) at
$1.365 a pound.
Global
supplies of coffee in the 2012-13 crop year, which started in October, are expected to outpace
demand by 2.2 million bags, largely due to increased output from Colombia, the International Coffee Organization said.
Colombia is the largest producer of mild, washed arabica beans, a variety coveted by gourmet roasters.
Tens of thousands of coffee growers there went on strike.
The quasigovernmental Colombian Federation of Coffee Growers, which oversees the industry, said Friday
it would more than double the subsidy for each 125-kilogram bag of parchment coffee—unroasted coffee with a thin layer of skin on the bean—to 145,000 pesos (
$80.44).
The move is expected to spur sales of beans from the country, where production rose 9.5% last month from a year earlier.
On top of Colombia's bright forecast, Brazil is expected to produce another large harvest following record 50.83 million bags harvested in 2012.
Sterling Smith, a
futures specialist at Citigroup, C -0.42% called the oversupply "an anchor on the market."
"There's not a lot of reason to be aggressively buying arabica right now," he said.
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Das Sentiment ist sehr bärisch:
Arabica-coffee futures that lost half their value in the past two years will extend their slump to the lowest price since 2009 as record global output led by Brazil overwhelms rising demand,
a survey showed.
The bean variety favored by Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) and Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. (DNKN) in their premium coffees will slip to $1.257 a pound by June 30,
according to the average estimate of 14 brokers and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That will mean
a 10 percent drop from
yesterday’s close of $1.3965 in New York.
“Prices will probably bottom out around
$1.20 by May {Das wären -14% relativ zu jenen $1.3965}. Producers are retaining coffee. At some point they will have start selling to make room for the new crop.”
Money managers and other speculators have been bearish on arabica futures since July, and as of March 5
boosted their net-short position, or bets on a price slide, by 6.8 percent from a week earlier, government data show.
Prices are down 55 percent from a 14-year high in May 2011 as production rose and after many roasters increased use of the cheaper robusta beans traded on London’s NYSE Liffe exchange.
Das Argument der Bären ist einfach:
There are so few market bulls, because stockpiles (of their 2012 crop) “will have to be dumped sooner or later.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-supplies.html
