Jan 16 2006 CNBC REPORT
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LET’S LOOK AT A GOLD MONTHLY CHART:
You have requested that I take a look at gold for your viewers. Gold has moved above the January 1983 high, which put it into a place where this can be qualified as a runaway market. You can see at the beginning of the chart the 1976 through 1980 bull campaign. I have placed an arrow at the point where this trend has become very similar to our current trend. The trend of the 1970’s blew off into that huge move up in 1980 that took 3 years 21 weeks.
This current trend is now 4 years 42 weeks. So this is without a doubt in the exhaustive phase of this trend. The last exhaustion move within this trend was obvious but was only a 36-day run and they are usually longer, at least 60 or 90 days. In 1980 the final exhaustive move up was 80 days. All I can do at this point is notify you when the trend appears to have exhausted.
I have had three dates that could end this trend one is
today , then
2nd of February and that looks like tough resistance in “time.” Then
March 21st to 28th but I will be quite surprised if it can carry that far in time – this is an exhaustion style of trend. Markets have been doing this style of trend since the beginning of trading –
so make no mistake this trend is exhausting. It can exhaust and consolidate for 30 days and put on one more exhaustion leg up but I will be able to identify that circumstance if it occurs. In 1979 price exhausted and consolidated for 30 days and was followed by the final vertical move up that lasted 80 days and doubled the price. I don’t believe that circumstance will repeat at this time. Next week we'll look at the weekly chart.
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Jan 23 2006 CNBC Report:
Last week we looked at the Monthly Chart in Gold and showed the index was in an exhaustion style of move or vertical style of trend that will go on until it exhausts. This daily chart shows the exhaustion leg that is a third ascending trendline. You can see there is some congestion as the market has gone to new highs and pulled back below the break out price on two occasions. If that occurs for a third time there maybe a correction to follow but for now it looks like the next resistance in time is between the
2nd and 8th of February . Congestion of this type if the trend resumes will be approximately the mid point of the leg. At this point a price objective would be a guess for me. And the best I can offer is
the trend will be at risk if it goes up into the 2nd through 8th of February . We’ll need to see how the index goes up into that time window and see if the pattern of trend presents a risk.
Feb 06 2006 CNBC Report
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LET’S LOOK AT THE DAILY GOLD CHART
Keep in mind gold is in a vertical move up and looking at a daily chart from a computer screen can be very, very deceptive. The faster the movement the more the computer screen has to compress the picture to fit it onto the screen. So remember the pitch or momentum of this trend is almost vertical. You can see the index showed an exhaustion at the first high.
Currently the market is struggling upward. It would be unusual to see a top that is not an exhaustion in this kind of trend. But this struggle can bring in a correction. This struggle is clear because each time the index breaks to new highs it immediately falls back below the break away point. The index also went 45 days low to low and is now 45 and 90 days from low and could bring in
a small correction of some sort . A correction could only be viewed as a first-degree counter trend and likely
three or four days . If the index can show a daily low on top of this “pattern of struggle” it would indicate a continuation of the vertical move up, but for now it is struggling a bit and looks like it is vulnerable to a
small correction of some sort not to exceed 4 days down .
Feb 13 2006 CNBC Report
During the January 23rd report I indicated Gold would be at a risk of a correction starting the 2nd through the 8th of February. Last week I said the correction was starting and would be four days and correct to ¼ of the range up. The high was on the 2nd of February and the low came on the 4th day down as forecast. But the low price was 3/8th of the range up and very close to the “obvious” support of the previous high. Each a normal place to find support in these circumstances. The price of 542 (JUNE contract) is still probable even though the low has been on the 4th day down as previously forecast.
So I’m still looking for 542 or ¼ of the exhaustion trend up. If the index exceeds 542 then there is a probability of having completed the bull campaign . Yes I know it is difficult to believe this trend will ever end the way it has been accelerating. This week will be very significant for this market. Next week I may have another forecast.
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